Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
307 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...

Moisture continues to move into South Florida ahead of a trough
across the SE CONUS. A diurnal seabreeze convective pattern across
the region today with higher overall coverage than previous days
with the increased moisture. Initial development will be along sea
breezes with additional development along outflow boundary
interactions. Hi-res models continue to depict highest coverage over
the interior and Gulf coast. Convection may linger into the later
part of the evening for some areas. Main impacts will be lightning
and heavy rainfall with the strongest storms.

A mid-upper level trough will approach the region Saturday with a
frontal boundary stalling to the north. South Florida will remain in
the very moist warm sector tomorrow. Precipitable water values will
be around 2 inches as moisture transport vectors continue to bring
tropical moisture ahead of the front from the Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico. Diurnal heating will not be a problem tomorrow with
temperatures rising into the upper 80s. This will lead to plenty of
instability for convective development. Model soundings are
depicting temperatures cooling aloft and increasing steep mid-level
lapse rates. Meso and global models depict 500mb temps approaching
-10C as well as mid level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. Looking at
all these factors, the potential for strong to even severe
thunderstorms looks to exist on Saturdays. The primary concerns
would be strong to damaging wind gusts and hail. Given the moisture
profile as well, efficient rainfall with high rainfall rates may
lead to localized flooding. Other hazards such as a tornadic
potential will have to be monitored tomorrow as the event unfolds.
Monitoring bulk shear values and the east coast seabreeze for SRH
increasing right along the Atlantic coast.

Overall, an active setup for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms with the potential for strong to potential severe
storms tomorrow afternoon and evening across South Florida.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Friday)...

Later this weekend and into early next week an upper level low
will close off and drift generally toward our region. This will
allow for colder temperatures aloft, which should provide a source
for a better thermodynamic profile through the weekend in regards
to shower and t'storm chances. At the surface, the low level flow
appears rather lackluster, which will lead to a slower moving sea
breeze. With the relatively steep lapse rates aloft and a surface
trigger thanks to the diurnal cycle, showers and storms will be
common on Sunday, although some drier air in the mid level tries
to work in across the northern tier Sunday and into Monday.

The synoptics going through the week looks to be rather
complicated. The aforementioned upper low is forecast to continue
to drift southward into the western Caribbean through the
remainder of the period. Across the Southeast US, a ridge begins
to develop. The GFS and to some extent the ECMWF indicate the
formation of a Rex Block over Florida during this timeframe.
Although the synoptics are complex, the expectations here at the
surface are rather simple...a continuation of wet season with
model QPF signals in all the globals. Of course driven by the
diurnal cycle, it appears the best rain chances will be across the
southern tier (generally along and south of I-75/Alligator Alley)
through out much of the upcoming workweek. These locations will
have a better thermodynamics profile (cooler temperatures aloft)
and perhaps slightly better moisture quality throughout the
column. Temperatures should stick to climo, give or take a degree
here or there depending on daily convection.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Increased convection this afternoon with VCTS
for all sites. Short-fused AMDs may be necessary for added TEMPO
groups this afternoon and evening. A brief lull inc SHRA/TSRA is
forecast overnight as activity should be mostly confined to the
adjacent waters. Rain chances increase Saturday AM for most the
region, with PROB30s already added for FLL and MIA. TEMPOs and/or
prevailing sub-MFR conditions for Saturday may be needed with later
TAF cycles. E winds today, becoming lgt/vrb overnight, and veering
SW Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

East to southeasterly wind flow with fairly benign marine conditions
today, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible. For this weekend, increasing coverage of showers and
storms ahead of a frontal boundary that will stall north of the
region. A 1 to 2 ft long period swell will also move into the
Atlantic waters off South Florida on Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...

A moderate rip current risk remains for the Palm Beaches today.
Higher than normal astronomical tides (King Tides) could result in
minor coastal flooding of vulnerable low-lying coastal areas during
the times of high tide this week, though generally light winds and
low surf heights should largely mitigate these concerns. An elevated
risk of rip currents is possible for the east coast beaches this
weekend as a small long period swell moves into the Atlantic waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  87  73  86 /  30  70  60  50
West Kendall     74  89  70  88 /  30  70  50  50
Opa-Locka        76  88  72  87 /  30  70  60  50
Homestead        74  87  70  86 /  20  70  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  76  87  73  86 /  30  70  60  50
N Ft Lauderdale  76  87  73  86 /  40  70  60  50
Pembroke Pines   75  87  71  86 /  30  70  60  50
West Palm Beach  74  87  71  86 /  40  70  60  50
Boca Raton       75  87  72  86 /  40  70  60  50
Naples           75  86  72  86 /  40  70  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...Kelly
Saturday Night through Friday...Frye

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
404 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
091415-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
404 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...Scattered Storms This Afternoon And Evening...
...Moderate Risk Of Rip Currents Palm Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches of Palm Beach County.

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible,
mainly this afternoon and evening inland. Frequent lightning, strong
wind gusts, and heavy rainfall are the primary concerns with the
strongest thunderstorms.

Flooding: Heavy rainfall from storms could lead to localized
flooding across low lying and poor drainage areas of South Florida.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible across all the local South
Florida waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

An elevated risk of rip currents will linger along the Palm Beaches
at least through late week.

Increasing shower and thunderstorm activity heading into the weekend
as a disturbance approaches the area. Flooding from locally heavy
rainfall and stronger storms could become a concern on Saturday.

Higher than normal astronomical tides (King Tides) will affect South
Florida this week, and minor coastal flooding could become a concern
around the times of high tide.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
317 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

FLZ071-072-081945-
Inland Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
317 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Broward
County through 345 PM EDT...

At 317 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud over
Weston, or near Sunrise, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Davie, Plantation, Sunrise, Tamarac, Weston, Pine Island Ridge,
Sawgrass Mills Mall, Intersection I-75 And U.S. 27 and Markham Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2606 8044 2617 8048 2621 8027 2607 8026
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 255DEG 7KT 2613 8040

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
406 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

FLZ073-173-174-082030-
Far South Miami-Dade County FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
406 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Miami-Dade
County through 430 PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a funnel cloud along a line
extending from near Homestead General Airport to 6 miles east of Pa-
Hay-Okee Overlook. Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Homestead, Homestead General Airport, The Redland, Florida City,
Royal Palm Ranger, Leisure City, Naranja, Princeton and Everglades
National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2558 8042 2555 8073 2535 8077 2535 8043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 216DEG 8KT 2547 8053 2544 8070

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hadi