Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
249 PM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...Drier Conditions Expected Next Week Over South Florida...
...Increasing Threat of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...

Today through Sunday:

A stalled front will remain across the Lake Okeechobee region today,
before gradually dissipating on Sunday. Surface high pressure
located across the Southeast states should build into the region
from the north allowing drier air to filter into South Florida by
late Sunday.

Today will be another active one weather-wise with moisture pooling
across the area, the front stalled nearby, and very light westerly
steering flow. Surface winds should remain light enough for both sea
breezes to develop and serve as additional low-level sources for
ascent in addition to the mentioned front. Given plentiful heating
and instability scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop
area-wide this afternoon, with the greatest focus across the eastern
half of South Florida. The primary weather-related concern is
flooding of urban and/or poorly draining areas given both antecedent
conditions and an environment capable of efficient warm-rain
processes. This concern is highest across the east coast metro
areas, but could extend towards Lake Okeechobee as well
(particularly for cities and towns on the southern and eastern
shores). Can't rule out a few storms producing gusty winds as well,
with this potential being greatest from the Lake region towards Palm
Beach County.

For Sunday the focus for showers and storms should begin shifting
towards southeast portions of the area (perhaps focusing along
and/or south of Alligator Alley) as drier air continues filtering in
from the north.

Temperatures should remain seasonal with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s each day, and lows in the 70s. Despite the temperatures
not changing much there should be a bit of a "drier" feel across
northern portions of South Florida by Sunday afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...
The weather pattern will be in a blocky pattern more most of next
week over the United States with troughs of low pressure over the
eastern and western United States and a ridge of high pressure
over the central united States. This will keep the wind flow over
South Florida from north to northeast direction for the first
half of next week before swinging more to an northeast direction
for the second half of next week. This in turn will allow for
drier air to work into the region from north through middle of
this week before some lower moisture returns to the region for the
second half of the week. Therefore, most of South Florida will
remain dry for the first half of next week, except for the east
coast metro areas where there could be a few isolated showers
working into this area from the Atlantic waters. The showers will
then increase some in coverage late this week along with the
possibility of a few thunderstorms.

Highs over South Florida next week will be in the mid to upper 80s
over most areas, except around 90 over the western interior areas.
Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s over most areas. The only
exception to the lows will be over the east coast metro areas
where they will range from near 70 over the far western areas to
mid 70s along the coastal areas.

The long range models are showing Major Hurricane Sam turning
toward the Northern Atlantic waters and keeping the system away
from South Florida at this time. Please continue to monitor the
the latest information from the Hurricane Center on Hurricane Sam
through next week.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Showers and storms are developing across eastern portions of the
area. Most immediate concerns for on-station impacts is at
KPBI/KFXE, with potential increasing for the other eastern
terminals within the next 1-2 hours. At least brief ceiling/vis
reductions and gusty winds are expected with storms today with
widespread coverage by mid afternoon. TEMPOs currently cover this
potential through 22Z, but may need to be extended to 00z with
future updates. Light E-NE winds through mid afternoon, with more
variable directions possible by late afternoon/evening due to
thunderstorm outflows. Prevailing VFR with light winds tonight,
increasing from the NE at 10-13 kt by ~14-15z tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate northeast winds should evolve as high pressure
locates to our north. A weak long-period northeast swell should also
continue this weekend. The primary hazard for boaters should be
locally higher winds and seas in and near showers and
thunderstorms. The greatest shower/storm risk should be this
weekend, with chances decreasing by early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...

A weak northeasterly swell will lead to an elevated risk of rip
currents along the Palm Beaches through the weekend. This risk may
increase for the remaining east coast beaches by early next week
as onshore flow increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  88  74  88 /  40  50  10  20
West Kendall     74  89  73  89 /  40  50  20  20
Opa-Locka        75  88  74  88 /  40  40  10  20
Homestead        74  87  74  87 /  50  50  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  75  87  75  87 /  40  40  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  76  87  75  87 /  30  40  10  20
Pembroke Pines   75  87  73  87 /  40  40  10  20
West Palm Beach  75  87  74  87 /  30  20  10  20
Boca Raton       75  87  74  87 /  30  30  10  20
Naples           74  90  72  89 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...BNB
Sunday Night through Saturday...SPM

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
314 PM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

FLZ073-074-173-252000-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
314 PM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
County through 400 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud over
Fountainbleau, or near South Miami, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Miami Beach, Homestead, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne,
South Miami, Black Point, The Redland, Virginia Key, Kendall, Doral,
Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens, Pinecrest, Miami Springs, Sweetwater,
West Miami, Medley and Westchester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2591 8036 2579 8008 2543 8036 2564 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 034DEG 13KT 2576 8035

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
350 PM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

FLZ069-070-252015-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
350 PM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Collier
County through 415 PM EDT...

At 350 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Vineyards, or near Golden Gate Estates,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Naples, Golden Gate Estates, Naples Park, Belle Meade, Orangetree,
Naples Manor, Golden Gate, Lely Resort, West Toll Gate On Alligator
Alley, Vineyards, North Naples, East Naples, Corkscrew Swamp
Sanctuary, Lely, South Blocks Golde, Picayune Strand State Forest,
Intersection I-75 And Everglades Blvd, Quail Creek Estate, Fiddlers
Creek and Pelican Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8186 2633 8182 2632 8182 2632 8166
      2642 8166 2642 8162 2612 8133 2600 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 331DEG 13KT 2625 8171

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CWC