Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
329 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)...

As the trough to our north weakens and dissipates, a slug of
slightly drier air ahead of an approaching surge of tropical
moisture had moved into peninsular Florida. Aloft, a trough
continues to linger over the eastern two-thirds of the United States
which has kept the pattern relatively unsettled and this trend will
continue through the end of Tuesday. As the disturbance from the
Yucatan emerges into the Gulf, some moisture could approach the
region which allow for some additional shower and storm chances.

The emergence of a bit more southerly component to the flow could
allow for the convective focus to shift a bit more inland compared
to previous days but with higher coverage overall due to the influx
in moisture. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s
for the most part though some isolated patches could reach the mid
90s if they stay cloud-free longer into the day. The concern for
strong storms will remain with the impacts from strong wind gusts,
frequent lightning activity, and localized flooding from heavy rain
remaining in through Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)...

Through the remainder of the workweek and into the weekend,
ridging aloft will build over the northern Caribbean placing a
somewhat more active southwesterly flow over the Florida
Peninsula. At the surface, high pressure will continue to nose in
from the western Atlantic, which should transition surface wind
to a more southeasterly direction, albeit a very light flow
regime. The overall diurnal summerlike convective pattern will
persist with only minor changes day to day. The best rain chances
will be across the interior, but a nonzero rain chance along the
coast will be possible if earlier development takes place along
the sea/gulf breeze.

Looking to our west a weak tropical disturbance is forecast to get
caught up in the aforementioned southwesterly flow and then become
entangled with a weak stationary frontal boundary along the I-10
corridor in northern Florida sometime mid to late week. Globals
suggest most of the rainfall will be north of our region, but
there could be some enhancement to the daily convection especially
along and north of Alligator Alley. The GFS seems to be a bit
more bullish with QPF/POPs, especially Wednesday PM through
Thursday AM. Decided to introduce mentionable POPs during this
time to compensate for the wetter GFS, but kept confidence on the
lower end to blend with the drier GEM and ECMWF.

Going into the weekend the H5 ridge begins to build over the
region (~593dam), which should keep temperatures at or slightly
above average for (then) mid September. With the light low level
flow, more sea breeze induced showers and storms can be expected,
but perhaps coverage may be slightly lower given the subsidence
aloft with the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Predominately VFR conditions should persist through this
evening, although convection may cause brief sub-VFR conditions
due to reductions in CIGs/VIS. Winds generally 05-10 kt out of the
WNW, though the Atlantic sea-breeze may allow for brief SE flow
around 05-10 kt. Convection should subside around 23-01Z, at which
point winds should remain light and variable through the
overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...

A light to moderate west-southwesterly flow continues over the Gulf
coastal waters, while a more southerly weak wind will return across
the Atlantic coastal waters. Generally benign marine conditions
continue through the beginning of the work week, outside of shower
and thunderstorm activity. A minor east swell from Hurricane Larry
remains in model solutions, which seems to reach the Palm Beach and
Broward coastal waters by late tomorrow with increasing hazardous
conditions over the offshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  90  77  92 /  30  50  10  50
West Kendall     74  91  75  92 /  30  50  10  40
Opa-Locka        75  90  76  92 /  30  50  10  50
Homestead        73  89  75  90 /  30  40  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  75  89  77  90 /  30  50  10  50
N Ft Lauderdale  75  90  78  91 /  30  50  10  50
Pembroke Pines   75  90  75  91 /  30  50  10  50
West Palm Beach  73  91  75  92 /  20  40  10  50
Boca Raton       74  90  76  91 /  30  40  10  50
Naples           76  90  77  90 /  10  40  10  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Tuesday and Marine...RAG
Tuesday Night through Monday...Frye
Aviation...Bhatti

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
418 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
071430-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
418 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021

...A Few Thunderstorms Possible Through The Overnight Hours...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening, favoring the interior and east coast. Main hazards
will be lightning, localized flooding, and gusty winds.

Flooding: Localized flooding from repeated rounds of showers and storms
will be possible along the east coast metro areas through this
evening.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts are possible with showers and storms,
mainly over the Atlantic waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest
of the forecast period with locally gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rainfall leading to possible localized flooding.

Swell arriving into the Atlantic waters from Hurricane Larry by
midweek could create hazardous conditions for small craft.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
513 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021

FLZ071>074-172-173-062200-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
513 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
and southern Broward Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Doral, or near Hialeah, moving southeast
at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar, Davie, Coral
Gables, South Miami, Hallandale, Miami Gardens, The Redland, Kendall,
Weston, North Miami, Doral, North Miami Beach, Aventura, Miami Lakes,
Cooper City and Hialeah Gardens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2548 8039 2553 8072 2611 8042 2602 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 293DEG 8KT 2583 8036

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
554 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021

FLZ071>074-172-173-062245-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
554 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
and Broward Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 554 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Westview, or near Hialeah, moving east at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar,
Coral Springs, Pompano Beach, Davie, Plantation, Sunrise, Tamarac,
Margate, Coral Gables, South Miami, Miami Gardens, Hallandale,
Lauderhill, Weston and North Miami.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2587 8017 2572 8026 2577 8061 2626 8043
      2621 8011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 262DEG 9KT 2587 8025

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SPM