Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
315 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...A Few Strong Storms Possible Eastern Areas Rest Of This Week...
...Wetter Pattern Possible Rest Of This Week...

.SHORT TERM (This Afternoon through Wednesday)...

High pressure will continue to move southward into the Bahamas from
the  Western Atlantic waters, as Tropical IDA moves northeast from
the Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic States. A trough from IDA
will also be moving southeast from Northern Florida into Central
Florida. This weather pattern will keep an south to southwest
steering flow over South Florida through Wednesday.

This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to develop later this afternoon over the interior areas and push
eastward into the east coast metro areas through the early evening
hours. The shower and thunderstorm activity will then dissipate
through the evening hours as the heating of the day is lost. The
west coast should remain mostly dry through rest of this afternoon
into tonight.

The west coast sea breeze will push eastward across South Florida on
Tuesday, while the east coast sea breeze will remain near the east
coast metro areas. This will allow for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the west coast metro areas Tuesday
morning before shifting and increasing to scattered range over the
interior and east coast metro areas Tuesday afternoon.

The short range models still keep the 500 mb temperatures over South
Florida round -7C which is colder then the average 500 mb
temperatures for this time of year which is -6C. Therefore, a few of
the storms this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon could be
strong with frequent lighting strikes, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall especially where the sea breezes collide over the
eastern areas of South Florida.

Lows tonight will be in the 70s across South Florida. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 90s except mid 90s over the east
coast metro areas. These highs will be near record highs for this
time of year and more on this in the climate section below.
Heat Indices on Wednesday will be in the 100 to 105 degrees over
most areas.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...

To start off the long term period, the remnants of Ida will move
through the Northeastern portion of the country and into the
northern Atlantic on Thursday. At the same time, a mid level
trough will be digging down across the eastern seaboard and into
the Florida peninsula. At the surface, the latest computer model
guidance continues to show a frontal boundary diving southward
into Central Florida through the end of the week and it will be
slowing down as it does so. All of these factors favor into an
unsettled weather pattern to end the week. With enhanced moisture
in place combined with a southwesterly steering flow, this will
allow higher chances of shower and thunderstorm development
especially over the interior and east coast metro areas during
each afternoon and evening during this time frame. A few strong
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as some cooler air aloft moves
into the region and helps to create higher instability during this
time frame.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, the level of uncertainty in the
forecast remains high as the latest guidance remains in
disagreement. The latest ECMWF continues to show the frontal
boundary actually moving through South Florida and stalling out
over the Florida Straits while the GFS stalls out the frontal
boundary to the north and closes off the mid level trough into a
closed 500mb low and drifts it across the central Florida
peninsula Friday night through Sunday. The ECMWF solution would
allow for some drier air to work in from the north and lower
shower and thunderstorm chances for the weekend, while the GFS
solution would keep a rather unsettled weather pattern in place
pumping in abundant moisture from the south. This would result
higher chances of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
heavy rain and localized flooding throughout the weekend.

The latest forecast represents a blend of the forecast models
allowing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening. The highest chances remain over the interior and
east coast during this time frame as a south southwesterly
steering flow remains in place. This will continue to be
monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures through the
weekend will generally range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s
across most of South Florida.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined east coast sea breeze
generally pinned right along the coastal metro areas, where
isolated showers are currently developing. Over the next couple
hours, TSRA should develop along the sea breeze and bring sporadic
MVFR/IFR restrictions and gusty outflow winds to the east coast
terminals though the early evening hours. Greatest chance of
direct impacts looks to be between 20Z and 22Z, when TEMPO TSRA
is in place for all east coast terminals outside of PBI where
confidence is lower.

&&

.MARINE...

The winds will be south southwest through rest of this week into
this weekend with wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots. This will keep the
seas at 2 feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South
Florida through this week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Here are the forecast highs and record highs for the east coast
metro areas for Wednesday.

Cities    Forecast Highs    Record Highs
PBI            94            95 - 1998
FLL            93            96 - 1998
MIA            94            95 - 2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  94  77  91 /  30  60  20  50
West Kendall     75  95  76  93 /  30  60  20  50
Opa-Locka        76  95  77  92 /  30  60  30  60
Homestead        76  93  76  90 /  30  60  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  77  93  77  90 /  30  60  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  76  93  77  90 /  30  60  30  60
Pembroke Pines   75  94  77  90 /  30  60  30  60
West Palm Beach  75  94  75  90 /  30  50  30  60
Boca Raton       76  93  77  90 /  30  60  30  60
Naples           79  89  78  88 /  10  20  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Aviation...Weinman
Tonight/Wednesday and Marine/Climate...BNB
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...CWC

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1017 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
010200-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1017 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...A Few Strong Storms With An Isolated Severe Storm Possible
Late This Afternoon Into Early This Evening Eastern Areas...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms possible west coast areas late
this morning into early this afternoon before shifting into the
interior and east coast metro areas with increasing coverage to
scattered to numerous. A few storms could become strong with a
possible severe storm over the interior and east coast metro areas
late this afternoon into early this evening.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms could contain wind gusts in excess
of 50 mph late this afternoon into early this evening.

Flooding: Localized flooding possible over the east and west coast
metro areas with strongest storms.

Tornadoes: The strongest storms could produce an isolated weak
tornado.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts will be possible with the showers and
thunderstorms over the local South Florida waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest
of the forecast period, with locally gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami
website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Baxter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
248 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

FLZ069-070-075-311930-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
Mainland Monroe FL-
248 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Collier
and north central Mainland Monroe Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 248 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Big Cypress National Preserve, or 16 miles
northeast of Everglades City, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Big Cypress National Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2610 8122 2604 8087 2602 8087 2572 8106
      2594 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 289DEG 18KT 2598 8115

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
322 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

FLZ073-074-173-312000-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
322 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Miami-Dade
County through 400 PM EDT...

At 321 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud over
Richmond Heights, or over Kendall, moving south at 5 mph. Heavy
rainfall could also lead to localized flooding.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Coral Gables, South Miami, Kendall, The Redland, Pinecrest,
Sweetwater, West Miami, Westchester, Glenvar Heights, Richmond West,
Richmond Heights, Country Walk, Kendale Lakes, Palmetto Bay, Cutler
Bay, University Of Miami, Zoo Miami, West Perrine and Coral Terrace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2578 8039 2572 8022 2554 8030 2560 8047
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 008DEG 5KT 2565 8036

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Weinman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
341 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

FLZ067-068-071-072-168-172-312030-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
341 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Broward and
southeastern Palm Beach Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 341 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Deerfield Beach to
Broadview-Pompano Park. These storms were nearly stationary. Heavy
rainfall could lead to localized flooding.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Lauderdale, Coral Springs, Pompano Beach, Davie, Plantation,
Sunrise, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Tamarac, Margate, Lighthouse
Point, Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, Highland Beach, Lauderhill, Coconut
Creek, Oakland Park, North Lauderdale, Lauderdale Lakes, Parkland and
Wilton Manors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2644 8017 2617 8040 2607 8022 2622 8006
      2638 8002
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 168DEG 1KT 2632 8013 2622 8021

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Weinman