Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
150 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.SHORT TERM (Rest of Today - Monday)...

High pressure with east/southeasterly winds across the region.
Lingering moisture, particularly in the low-levels, with
precipitable water values around 2 inches. This moisture has allowed
for a few isolated showers over the east coast. Given the
east/southeasterly breeze convection will focus over the interior
and west coast this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
with main impacts being gusty winds and lightning strikes.

Pretty much the same pattern as we begin the week tomorrow. High
pressure remains in place with a little lighter easterly wind flow.
A typical summertime pattern across South Florida with scattered
showers and storms, with the greater rain chances over the interior
and Gulf coast in the afternoon and evening. Main impacts will
be brief gusty winds and lightning strikes.

High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index
values in the triple digits.

.LONG TERM...

Monday Night through Sunday:

Ida should undergo extratropical transition while progressing from
the Southern Appalachians towards New England. As the broader trough
advances towards the Eastern Seaboard this will displace ridging
across our area towards the south with time. As a result the
steering flow will gradually become south to southwest through late
week, with a dominant Gulf Breeze evolving each afternoon. Thus the
better focus for afternoon and evening shower and storm development
shifts towards the interior and east coast areas. Some drier air may
limit coverage somewhat towards mid week, with an increase looking
more likely for late week into the weekend as the upper trough moves
closer and deeper moisture works back in to the region. For now
didn't stray from the statistically weighted and model consensus
blended PoPs but an increase is certainly possible as the signal for
increased coverage becomes clearer. Temperatures should be seasonal,
although they could be warmer than average at times for the east
coast metro areas whenever a westerly component to the steering flow
evolves.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. Showers
and thunderstorms will focus mainly over the interior and Gulf coast
this afternoon, VCTS for KAPF. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible if
a storm passes directly over the terminal, will be handled with
amendments. Light and variable winds overnight. Easterly winds a
typical summertime pattern tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure remains over the Western Atlantic and will
dominate the South Florida weather pattern for much of the week
ahead. This will keep  east/southeast wind flow along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the local waters.Seas in the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to diminish throughout the day today and
tomorrow.

&&

.BEACHES...

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at all South Florida
beaches. An elevated risk of rip currents may remain at east coast
beaches Monday, although the winds will be diminishing a residual
current may remain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  91  77  92 /  10  40  10  40
West Kendall     76  92  76  92 /  10  40  20  40
Opa-Locka        77  92  76  92 /  10  50  10  40
Homestead        76  90  76  90 /  10  30  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  78  90 /  20  40  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  79  89  78  90 /  20  40  10  40
Pembroke Pines   77  91  76  91 /  20  50  10  40
West Palm Beach  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  10  30
Boca Raton       79  89  77  90 /  20  40  10  30
Naples           76  90  76  90 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Beaches/Marine...Kelly
Monday Night through Sunday...SPM

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
419 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
300830-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
419 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...Scattered Thunderstorms Interior and West This Evening...
...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents All Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of Rip Currents across all
beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will continue over the
interior and west coast this evening. Locally gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall possible with any thunderstorms.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms could contain wind gusts in excess
of 45 mph this evening.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts will be possible with the showers and
thunderstorms over the local South Florida waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest
of the forecast period with locally gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rainfall possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
338 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

FLZ066-070-292030-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
338 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Hendry
County through 430 PM EDT...

At 338 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Devils Garden, or 7 miles south of
Montura, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Montura and Devils Garden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2665 8091 2640 8100 2645 8132 2675 8125
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 098DEG 7KT 2654 8108

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
343 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

FLZ069-070-292030-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
343 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Collier
County through 430 PM EDT...

At 343 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Belle Meade, or 8 miles southeast of
Naples, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Naples, Marco Island, Golden Gate Estates, Belle Meade, Marco Island
Airport, Naples Manor, East Naples, Lely Resort, West Toll Gate On
Alligator Alley, Royal Palm Hammock, Lely, Rookery Bay Aquatic
Preserve and Fiddlers Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2613 8184 2617 8166 2599 8156 2588 8179
      2599 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 066DEG 7KT 2606 8170

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
356 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

FLZ066-069-070-292030-
Coastal Collier County FL-Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
356 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Collier and
south central Hendry Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 356 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud 12 miles
north of Copeland, or 14 miles southeast of Ave Maria, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, winds in excess of 40 mph, and pea size
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Golden Gate Estates, Hendry Correctional, Copeland, Big Cypress
National Preserve, Miles City, Sunniland, Fakahatchee Strand State
Preserve, Jerome, Deep Lake, Intersection I-75 And Everglades Blvd
and Picayune Strand State Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8121 2607 8112 2590 8122 2593 8147
      2623 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 065DEG 7KT 2614 8133

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
418 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

FLZ066-070-292045-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
418 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Collier and southwestern Hendry Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud near
Immokalee, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, winds in excess of 40 mph, and pea size
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ave Maria, Immokalee, Golden Gate Estates, Hendry Correctional,
Felda, Orangetree, Big Corkscrew Island, Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary,
Sunniland, Bunker Hill and Lake Trafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2642 8156 2654 8156 2659 8128 2631 8117
      2621 8157 2642 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 068DEG 13KT 2646 8135

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
431 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

FLZ069-070-075-292115-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
Mainland Monroe FL-
431 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Collier and northern Mainland Monroe Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 430 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud 7 miles
east of Copeland, or 10 miles northeast of Everglades City. This
storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, winds in excess of 40 mph, and pea size
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chokoloskee, Everglades City, Plantation Island, Carnestown,
Copeland, Big Cypress National Preserve, Jerome, Port Of The Island
and Deep Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2609 8120 2584 8105 2574 8132 2597 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 072DEG 4KT 2592 8124

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
445 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

FLZ066-070-292115-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
445 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Collier
and west central Hendry Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud near Big
Corkscrew Island, or near Immokalee, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, winds in excess of 40 mph, and half inch
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ave Maria, Golden Gate Estates, Immokalee, Felda, Orangetree, Big
Corkscrew Island, Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary, Sunniland, Bunker Hill
and Lake Trafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2632 8166 2642 8166 2642 8156 2658 8157
      2660 8146 2648 8137 2625 8133 2616 8166
      2632 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 071DEG 12KT 2641 8150

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CWC