Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
254 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...Drier And Hotter Conditions Possible Rest Of This Week...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday):

High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters extending into the
Florida Peninsula will remain near stationary through Wednesday.
This will allow for an easterly wind flow to remain over the
region through Wednesday and allow for some drier air over the
Bahamas to work into the region tonight into Wednesday. However,
the deeper moisture will still be over the area this afternoon
helping to generate showers and thunderstorms along the sea
breezes especially over the interior and west coast metro areas.
Therefore, will keep scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the interior and west coast metro areas with a
few showers and storms early this afternoon for the east coast
metro areas.

On Wednesday, the showers and thunderstorms will be less in
coverage due to the drier air working into the area. POPs will be
lower to scattered coverage over the interior and west coast
metro areas with only isolated coverage over the east coast metro
areas.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 90s over most
areas with lower 90s over the east coast metro areas due to less
coverage in the showers and thunderstorms. The dew points will
still be in the mid 70s on Wednesday. This means that the the
heat index readings will be in the 105 to 110 range over the
interior and west coast metro areas with the east coast metro
areas in the 100 to 105 range. Therefore, we will continue to
monitor the latest forecast on highs and the heat index readings
for Wednesday to see if a Heat Advisory will be needed for
portions of South Florida on Wednesday.

Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s, except around 80
east coast metro areas. The dew points will remain in the mid to
upper 70s tonight. This will keep the heat index readings in the
upper 70s to lower 80s over most areas, except upper 80s to around
90 over the east coast metro areas tonight.

.Long Term (Wednesday Night through Monday):

Models depict a rather seasonal pattern returning for the long term.
A broad high pressure cell builds across much of the region,
centered over the west Atlantic. Generally light to moderate E/SE
flow will prevail, with afternoon sea breezes developing each day. A
gradual drying trend will keep POPs in the 20-40 percent each day
through the weekend, with best chances of a few thunderstorms along
sea breeze boundaries.

Hot days also continue with afternoon highs in the lower to perhaps
middle 90s through the long term, hottest over interior and Lake
Okeechobee region.

Long range models suggest the development of an upper level trough
feature, which slightly erodes the western edge of the aforementioned
high. This allows for POPs to increase a little by the end of the
period with some moisture advection from the tropical easterlies.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
The winds will remain easterly through tonight except for KAPF taf
site where they will be westerly until 00Z. VCSH will continue
for the east coast TAF site through 00Z then dry conditions. KAPF
taf site will have VCTS until 00Z then VCSH until 02Z before going
dry. The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR conditions but could
fall down into the MVFR or even IFR conditions with any shower or
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
The winds will remain easterly winds at 10 knots or less through
rest of this week into this weekend. This will keep the seas at 2
feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South
Florida. Therefore, boating conditions looks good outside of any
showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  91  80  92 /  20  20  10  30
West Kendall     80  92  78  92 /  10  20  10  30
Opa-Locka        81  92  78  92 /  10  20  10  30
Homestead        80  89  78  90 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  82  90  80  90 /  20  20  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  30
Pembroke Pines   81  92  78  91 /  20  20  10  30
West Palm Beach  80  91  78  91 /  20  20  10  30
Boca Raton       81  90  79  91 /  20  20  10  30
Naples           79  93  77  92 /  40  30   0  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...BNB
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...AR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1038 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
180100-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1038 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ESPECIALLY INTERIOR/WEST COAST METRO AREAS...
...HEAT INDICES 107 TO 109 INLAND COLLIER COUNTY COUPLE OF HOURS TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible
today with the greatest coverage expected over the interior and Lake
Okeechobee Region. Possible impacts include strong wind gusts,
lightning, and localized flooding.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms may produce wind gusts to 45 mph
or greater, primarily over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region.

Temperatures: Heat index readings getting up into the lower to mid
100s over most areas this afternoon, except lower 100s over the east
coast metro areas and 107 to 109 for couple of hours over Inland
Collier County.

Flooding: Localized flooding is possible for metro portions of
Collier County today.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts are possible within showers and
thunderstorms across all of the local waters today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day this
week, mainly over the interior and western areas. Heavy downpours
may cause localized flooding across the low lying and poor drainage
areas. Overall storm coverage should gradually decrease by later this
week into the weekend.

The elevated risk for rip currents will continue along the Atlantic
beaches through the middle of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Baxter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
232 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

FLZ069-070-171915-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
232 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Collier
County through 315 PM EDT...

At 231 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud 10 miles
northeast of Royal Palm Hammock, or 10 miles southeast of Golden Gate
Estates, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Golden Gate Estates, Marco Island Airport, West Toll Gate On
Alligator Alley, Royal Palm Hammock, Miles City, South Blocks Golde,
Sunniland, Fakahatchee Strand State Preserve, Picayune Strand State
Forest, Jerome, Deep Lake and Intersection I-75 And Everglades Blvd.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 2627 8131 2598 8132 2599 8168 2628 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 097DEG 7KT 2611 8149

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Hadi/RAG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
259 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

FLZ069-070-171945-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
259 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Collier
County through 345 PM EDT...

At 258 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud over West
Toll Gate On Alligator Alley, or near Golden Gate Estates, moving
west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Naples, Ave Maria, Golden Gate Estates, Naples Park, Orangetree,
Naples Manor, Golden Gate, East Naples, Lely Resort, Big Corkscrew
Island, West Toll Gate On Alligator Alley, Vineyards, North Naples,
Pelican Bay, Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary, Lely, Intersection I-75 And
Everglades Blvd, Quail Creek Estate and Sunniland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8187 2632 8166 2642 8166 2642 8158
      2629 8132 2607 8154 2606 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 091DEG 11KT 2617 8164

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Hadi/RAG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
400 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

FLZ066-067-172045-
Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
400 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Hendry
and southwestern Palm Beach Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 359 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a landspout near Holey
Land Wildlife Refuge, or 13 miles south of South Bay, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Holey Land Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2650 8063 2639 8076 2649 8100 2667 8082
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 116DEG 10KT 2648 8077

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Hadi/RAG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
403 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

FLZ069-070-075-172045-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
Mainland Monroe FL-
403 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central Collier
and northern Mainland Monroe Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 402 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a landspout along a line
extending from 9 miles east of Chokoloskee to 9 miles north of
Wilderness Waterway. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chokoloskee, Everglades City, Carnestown, Plantation Island and Big
Cypress National Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 2592 8141 2591 8115 2571 8099 2563 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 133DEG 12KT 2582 8120 2578 8113

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Hadi/RAG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
423 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

FLZ066-069-070-172115-
Coastal Collier County FL-Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
423 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Collier and
south central Hendry Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 423 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a landspout along a line
extending from near Hendry Correctional to near Copeland. Movement
was west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hendry Correctional, Copeland, Big Cypress National Preserve, Miles
City, Sunniland, Fakahatchee Strand State Preserve, Jerome, Deep Lake
and Bunker Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2639 8139 2610 8144 2592 8141 2591 8115
      2617 8121 2636 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 074DEG 5KT 2628 8127 2614 8132 2595 8129

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hadi/RAG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
437 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

FLZ063-066-070-172115-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-Glades FL-
437 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central
Collier, central Hendry and south central Glades Counties through 515
PM EDT...

At 437 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a landspout along a line
extending from near Moore Haven to 8 miles south of Devils Garden.
Movement was west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Moore Haven, Montura, Immokalee, Devils Garden, Bunker Hill and Lake
Hicpochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2691 8100 2689 8100 2688 8097 2636 8108
      2639 8139 2693 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 073DEG 8KT 2682 8106 2649 8118

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Hadi/RAG