Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
344 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SHORT TERM (Rest of Today and Wednesday)...

Moisture remains across the area with scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Very light wind profile in the 12Z MFL
sounding will cause for slow storm motion once again today. Storms
will mainly develop along sea breeze and outflow boundaries this
afternoon and evening. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out today
with frequent to excessive lightning activity, torrential rainfall
combined with slow storm motion which could lead to urban flooding,
and gusty winds.

Surface high pressure ridge begins to build back in over the
Atlantic with the western portion nudging into Central/South Florida
with a light southeasterly wind flow. A bit of drier air to the east
may help limit some convection overnight or early tomorrow morning.
There is TUTT over eastern Cuba that will slowly move across the
Keys or southern tip of Florida. This may help enhance the activity
over the region tomorrow afternoon. The Atlantic and Gulf sea
breezes will develop and push inland in the afternoon leading to
scattered to numerous showers and storms. Main impacts will be
frequent lightning , heavy rainfall, and strong wind gusts.

High temperatures  will be in low to mid 90s with heat indices in
the triple digits.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...

Medium-range model guidance remains in good agreement, depicting
continental high pressure building over the central CONUS and
a subtropical ridge remaining centered over the western Atlantic
waters -- with weak mid-level troughing persisting between these
air masses. This large-scale pattern will generally support light
deep-layer flow and slightly above average moisture content
across South Florida, resulting in the daily development of east
and west coast sea breeze circulations and scattered thunderstorms
each day. A slight southerly component to the low-level flow will
tend to focus the highest convective coverage over the interior
and lake region, though weak convective inhibition will support
the development of new convection along outflow boundaries which
will spread into the metro areas during the afternoon and early
evening hours. With very light deep-layer flow and ample low/mid-
level moisture remaining in place (i.e., PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 in),
isolated flooding from slow moving convection will be a concern
each day -- especially across vulnerable low-lying metro areas.

By this weekend, the above mentioned subtropical ridge will
continue building over the western Atlantic waters, while a
mid/upper-level inverted trough and accompanying cool mid-level
temperatures moves westward along the southern periphery of the
ridge toward South Florida. This feature could support a brief
uptick in convection across the area for early next week, though
plenty of uncertainty remains regarding the details and potential
impacts at this time.

Temperatures will be near normal each day, with highs in the lower
90s and lows in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Scattered showers and storms this afternoon along the sea breeze
convection. Brief MVFR ceilings/vis are possible near and in any
afternoon thunderstorms with brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Light
and variable winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Benign marine conditions throughout the period outside of
convection, light to moderate winds. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across the Atlantic and Gulf
waters each day. Expect periods of rough seas and gusty winds in and
around any thunderstorm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  92  78  92 /  30  50  20  60
West Kendall     77  93  77  93 /  30  50  20  50
Opa-Locka        78  93  77  92 /  30  50  20  60
Homestead        77  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  78  92  78  91 /  30  50  20  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  92  78  90 /  40  50  20  60
Pembroke Pines   77  92  77  91 /  30  50  20  60
West Palm Beach  76  92  77  92 /  40  50  20  60
Boca Raton       78  92  78  92 /  40  50  20  50
Naples           78  91  78  91 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Kelly
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Weinman

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
409 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
280815-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
409 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms This Evening...
...Localized Flooding Possible...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
possible this evening. Frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and
gusty winds will be the primary hazards with the strongest
thunderstorms.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible over the local South
Florida waters.

Flooding: Localized flooding is possible due to slow moving heavy
downpours from thunderstorms over low-lying and poor drainage areas.

Wind: A few storms could become strong producing wind gusts up to 45
mph this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. Frequent
lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds will be the primary
hazards with the strongest thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

FLZ066-070-272000-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLLIER AND CENTRAL
HENDRY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

* At 320 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Orangetree, or near Ave Maria,
  moving northeast at 15 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Ave Maria, Immokalee, Golden Gate Estates, Felda, Orangetree, Big
  Corkscrew Island, Keri, Sunniland, Bunker Hill and Lake Trafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2617 8148 2627 8164 2672 8140 2651 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 227DEG 11KT 2629 8152

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
330 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

FLZ070-073-075-272015-
Inland Collier County FL-Mainland Monroe FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-
330 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER...NORTHERN
MAINLAND MONROE AND NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

* At 330 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Fortymile Bend, or 21 miles
  northwest of Homestead General Airport, moving north at 5 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Shark Valley Obs Tower, Dade-Collier Training Airport, Fortymile
  Bend and Everglades National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2558 8072 2567 8097 2596 8091 2581 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 202DEG 6KT 2573 8079

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
337 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

FLZ073-074-272030-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
337 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

* At 337 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Doral, or near Hialeah. This
  storm was nearly stationary.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hialeah, Doral, Hialeah Gardens, Miami Springs, Sweetwater, Medley,
  Fountainbleau, Pennsuco, Miami International Airport, Tamiami,
  University Park, Westchester, Gladeview, Olympia Heights, Virginia
  Gardens, Tamiami Fairgrounds, Fiu South Campus and Westwood Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2573 8036 2577 8044 2591 8038 2583 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 214DEG 1KT 2580 8037

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
438 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

FLZ067-071-073-272130-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-
438 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND
SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

* At 438 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Miccosukee Service Plaza, or 27
  miles west of Sunrise, moving southwest at 5 mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph possible
  with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Intersection Alligator Alley And Miami Canal, Miccosukee Service
  Plaza, Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge and West Broward Rec. Area On
  Alligator Alley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2641 8062 2591 8057 2591 8085 2640 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 064DEG 5KT 2622 8074

Weinman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
443 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

FLZ063-066-067-272130-
Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-Glades FL-
443 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HENDRY AND SOUTHWESTERN
GLADES COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

* At 443 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Montura to near Port La Belle. Movement was east at 10 mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph possible
  with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Clewiston, Labelle, Montura, Port La Belle, Devils Garden, Ortona,
  Harlem and Lake Hicpochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2670 8083 2697 8142 2671 8154 2645 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 267DEG 10KT 2672 8112 2678 8135

Weinman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
446 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

FLZ073-074-173-174-272130-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
446 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM EDT...

* At 446 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over The Redland. This storm was
  nearly stationary.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Homestead, Homestead General Airport, The Redland, Kendall, Doral,
  Sweetwater, Homestead Base, Naranja, Richmond West, Fountainbleau,
  Richmond Heights, Country Walk, Kendale Lakes, Leisure City, Zoo
  Miami, Goulds, The Hammocks, West Perrine, Princeton and Shark
  Valley Obs Tower.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2582 8034 2550 8037 2539 8073 2571 8084
      2587 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 067DEG 4KT 2556 8049

CWC