Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

SHRA/TSRA moving onshore could affect the vicinity of the terminals
across SE FL overnight. KPBI has TEMPO SHRA this evening, though
TSRA is not being ruled out before 14/04Z. VCTS generally is
forecast for the SE FL terminals after 14/10Z or so, though any TSRA
affecting the actual terminals will be handled with amendments due
to uncertainty on timing and exact location. Winds will be mainly
easterly at around 10 knots or so, but gusty winds expected in/near
TSRA. Improving weather and ceilings expected after 15/02Z.

.SHORT TERM (Rest of Today through Wednesday)...

Satellite derived PWATs this afternoon reveal a plume of deep
tropical moisture engulfing the southern FL peninsula in association
with the northern extent of a weak tropical wave currently analyzed
over western Cuba. The 13.12Z MIA sounding this morning sampled a
PWAT value of 1.92 inches within this swath of moisture. As the wave
axis progresses westward the rest of the day, forecast soundings hint
at this value increasing above 2 inches, which will translate into
numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through the early
evening hours with peak diurnal heating. In fact, convective
coverage can already be seen filling in on radar along the southern
portions of the area.

Rainfall totals for today from experimental probabilistic QPF are
between 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. And
given the rainfall accumulated yesterday, 1-hr FFG ranges from 1.5
to 4 inches, which is right on the money with those expected
rainfall totals. This reinforces the concern for flooding today,
especially across the east coast metro areas that are already
saturated, along with any areas that experience repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall. A secondary concern within this environment
favorable for warm rain processes is strong wind gusts due to
precipitation loading.

The wave axis should slowly depart into the Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday, although, the associated enhanced area of moisture will
linger a bit over South FL in its wake. This will support another
day of numerous showers and thunderstorms. Thus, hydro concerns
continue through tomorrow, especially for the Gulf Coast of South
Florida where rainfall should be heaviest, albeit can't rule out the
potential for flooding over any areas along the east coast that are
receive additional rainfall accumulations today.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...

Western Atlantic ridging will become reinforced, as the southwest
periphery of this broad feature builds towards the southeast into
the FL peninsula/eastern Gulf of Mexico. Deep easterly
tropospheric flow will become prevalent as a result. This will
allow for modest (seasonable) moisture, with forecast precipitable
water indices around 1.6-2.0 in. The aforementioned easterly flow
and modest moisture will support scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms along portions of the Atlantic waters/east coast,
and scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms developing over
the interior and Gulf coast during the afternoon/evening hours
most days during this time period. The upper ridging will result
in warming temperatures, especially in the 700-300 hPa layer,
which will cause lapse rates to weaken as a result. Additionally,
the deep easterly flow will limit effective bulk shear values.
These factors will act to limit storms to mainly be of the pulse
variety, with a few semi-organized clusters potentially developing
with any congealing cells. Thus primary impacts should be
relegated to strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and localized
flooding.

Temperatures will generally be in the seasonable range, and perhaps
a degree or two below seasonable values along the east coast, mainly
owing to the advection of a slightly cooler maritime airmass. This
will allow for maximum temperatures to generally be in the mid/upper
80s along the east coast metropolitan locations, and lower 90s
anticipated elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Active weather will continue producing scattered to numerous
TSRA/SHRA through this evening. MVFR or even IFR conditions will
impact SE terminals, including MIA thru at least 04/02z. FLL can
expect TSRA near/across btwn 13/19-14/01z. VFR conditions will
return aft 04/06z and thru 14/15z when sea breeze could enhance
afternoon activity once again. Winds will persist from the E-ESE
at around 10-15 knots but strong and gusty in/near TSRA, becoming
calm- light/VRB after 14/00z. Winds returning from the E aft
14/13z.

&&

.MARINE...

Enhanced moisture associated with a weak tropical wave currently
located over Western Cuba will move over the local waters and
support numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally gusty winds
through tomorrow. East to southeasterly winds will remain elevated
across the local waters as the wave passes, resulting in cautionary
conditions for small craft operators, especially across the Atlantic
waters where winds will remain near advisory levels. High pressure
should build over the region by Thursday, resulting in a decrease in
shower and thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.BEACHES...

Breezy easterly flow will maintain a high risk of rip currents along
the Atlantic beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  89  78  88 /  60  60  20  50
West Kendall     77  89  77  89 /  60  60  20  50
Opa-Locka        76  89  77  89 /  60  60  10  50
Homestead        77  88  77  88 /  60  60  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  78  88  78  88 /  60  60  10  50
N Ft Lauderdale  78  87  78  87 /  60  60  10  50
Pembroke Pines   76  87  76  87 /  60  60  10  50
West Palm Beach  77  88  77  88 /  60  60  10  40
Boca Raton       78  89  78  88 /  60  60  10  50
Naples           75  89  74  91 /  40  80  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Wednesday and Marine...HVN
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Bhatti

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
428 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
140830-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
428 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

...URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER EAST COAST METRO...
...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR EAST COAST BEACHES...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Flooding: Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to localized
flooding across South Florida today. Urban and even flash flooding
may be possible for highly populated areas of Miami-Dade County
through tonight.

Rip currents: There is a High Risk of rip currents along the east
coast beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across
South Florida today, with strong wind gusts and localized flooding
possible.

Wind: Strong wind gusts will be possible with showers and
thunderstorms today.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts will be possible with showers and
thunderstorms today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast once
again on Wednesday, with locally heavy rainfall and flooding
being the primary concern. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms
should decrease by Thursday. A high risk of rip currents will
continue along the east coast beaches of South Florida through at
least Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters
are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to the National
Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1221 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S MARCO ISLAND        25.92N 81.73W
07/13/2021  M42 MPH          GMZ656             FL   MESONET

            A MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 42 MPH /
            36 KNOTS WAS RECORDED BY THE WEATHERBUG
            MESONET SITE MRCSC LOCATED AT THE CHARTER
            CLUB OF MARCO BEACH.

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
124 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 SSE MIAMI BEACH       25.75N 80.10W
07/13/2021  M40 MPH          AMZ651             FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XGVT GOVERNMENT CUT REPORTED
            A WIND GUST OF 40MPH AT 1:05PM AS A GUSTY
            THUNDERSTORM MOVED ONSHORE. ELEVATION IS 75
            FEET.

&&

HADI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
130 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

FLZ066-070-131830-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
130 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLLIER AND
SOUTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

* At 130 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Ave Maria, moving northwest at
  15 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Ave Maria, Immokalee, Golden Gate Estates, Orangetree, Big
  Corkscrew Island, Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary, Sunniland, Bunker Hill
  and Lake Trafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2632 8166 2642 8166 2642 8156 2660 8156
      2641 8121 2619 8134 2632 8170
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 113DEG 13KT 2632 8137

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
153 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

FLZ066-070-131845-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
153 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLLIER AND
NORTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

* At 153 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Felda, or 10 miles north of
  Immokalee, moving west at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Labelle, Felda and Keri.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2677 8148 2654 8110 2639 8115 2640 8122
      2656 8157 2677 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 107DEG 15KT 2656 8136

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
509 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

FLZ066-067-132145-
Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
509 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HENDRY AND SOUTHWESTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

* At 509 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Montura
  to 7 miles north of Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge. Movement was west
  at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Montura, Devils Garden and Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2668 8149 2633 8094 2647 8067 2674 8102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 077DEG 17KT 2663 8106 2651 8086

SB/DH