Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
220 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

OPF, MIA, and TMB are most likely to experience a thunderstorm
over the next few hours. Later this evening, storms may drift back
or redevelop across the east coast and could impact PBI, FXE, FLL.
Outside of storms, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through
the TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 834 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021)

..Wet Day Expected...
..TD5 now TS Elsa...

UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track this AM. Main update is the upgrade
of TD5 to now TS Elsa. For more information, visit the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov

MFL's 01/12Z sounding is a little less impressive than past days,
however scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected yet
again today. With plenty of moisture across the region (PW of
1.98 inches) along with very weak southeasterly steering flow,
showers and storms that do develop will be slow moving. High
rainfall rates are expected due to the moist airmass in place and
this combining with the slow movement will lead to another hydro
concern type of day. 1-hr FFG across SE Broward and most of
eastern Dade County is in the 2-3 inch rang whereas 3-hr FFG
across the same areas is 2.5-4 inches, both of which are possible
today. Similar to yesterday, expect the stronger storms to be SPS
type, however, a non-zero threat for as strong SPS to low-end SVR
cells cannot be ruled out, especially across the interior and Gulf
Coast sections.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 745 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
Relatively quiet early this morning with VFR conditions, but
SHRA/TSRA expected to return to South Florida after 14Z, with
intervals of MVFR and brief IFR in VIS/CIGs. Confidence not high
enough to include TEMPOs for east coast sites at this time, so
handling with prevailing FMs and somewhat diminished VIS. Short
term updates likely for individual terminals as precipitation
develops and confidence increases on timing. Greatest coverage of
TSRA expected interior and Gulf Coast/KAPF after 18Z where TEMPOs
have been added.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 332 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021)

Less Coverage Of Showers And Storms This Fourth Of July Weekend...

All Eyes On Depression #5 For Early Next Week...

SHORT TERM...
Short Term (Today through Friday)...
The wet pattern of the past week remains in effect through today,
before some (temporary) improvements begin on Friday. The pesky and
persistent 500 mb troughs over the central Gulf of Mexico and
Straits of Florida will slowly shift west and north, respectively,
as the subtropical high over the western North Atlantic holds on for
one more day. This results in a continued deep and moist SE low to
mid level flow across the area. As has been the case the past few
days, most of the models show an increase in rainfall over SE
Florida shortly after sunrise spreading from SE to NW, with a
gradual transition of the heaviest and most widespread precip to the
interior and Gulf coast during the early afternoon hours. This
pattern will be depicted again today, with the greatest potential of
stronger convection over the interior and Gulf coast where greater
early day insolation will cause low levels to destabilize more
effectively. Heavy rainfall once again could lead to pockets of
localized flooding.

A deep mid-level longwave trough will dive south and set up over the
eastern U.S. as we go into Friday and the early part of the weekend,
while at the same time a mid-level subtropical ridge builds westward
towards South Florida from the Bahamas. A shift in the low/mid level
winds from S-SW tonight to SW-W on Friday will help to cut off the
deep moisture flow from the Caribbean and bring in slightly drier
air from the SW over the area on Friday. Highest rain chances
tonight will be along the east coast and Atlantic waters, then over
the interior and Palm Beach County regions on Friday as is typical
of a SW wind flow pattern, however these will be closer to normal
for early July (50-60%) and more diurnally driven as opposed to the
widespread rain coverage of the past week.

Clouds and rain today will keep temperatures near to slightly below
normal, then increase on Friday to above normal in spots as more
sunshine is expected. Highs on Friday are expected to hit 90F over a
good portion of the area, which hasn't happened in several days.

LONG TERM...

Fourth Of July Weekend...
As the holiday weekend approaches, a ridge of high pressure in
the western Atlantic will get flattened and pushed southeastward
as a mid level trough digs into the Mid Atlantic and into the
southeastern portion of the country. This will shift the winds
around to a more south to southwesterly direction through the
first half of the Holiday weekend. There could be some drier air
working into South Florida for the first part of the holiday
weekend allowing for lest coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
However, there will still be enough moisture in place leading to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region with the
best areas in the Lake Okeechobee and NE region of South Florida.

Moisture will start to build back into the region for Fourth of
July from the south as tropical depression #5 is forecast by NHC
to be near the eastern areas of Cuba. This will allow for an
increase of moisture along with an increase in showers and
thunderstorms over South Florida, but remain in the scattered
range.

Temperatures on Saturday will also be warming up into the lower to
mid 90s over most of South Florida, except mid to upper 80s west
coast metro areas. This will allow for the heat indices to get up
into the 102 to 107 range over most areas, except around 100 west
coast metro areas.

Fourth of July will be a little bit cooler compare to Saturday
with highs in the lower 90s except around 90 over the metro areas.
This will allow for the heat indices on Fourth of July to be in
the lower 100s, except around 100 over the metro areas.

Early To Middle of Next Week...
All eyes will then turn to the path and location of depression #5.
At this time, NHC is forecasting depression #5 to move more
northward moving the system through the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, and all of South Florida is in the forecast cone at this
time. However, it is too early to determine what if any impacts
could occur early next week given the uncertainly in the long
range forecast. Therefore, residents and visitors of South
Florida should not focus on the exact forecast track of
depression #5, but should start to review there hurricane plans
and pay close attention to the latest information from the
National Weather service through the Fourth of July Weekend.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...
Relatively quiet early this morning with VFR conditions, but
SHRA/TSRA expected to return to South Florida after 14z, with
intervals of MVFR and brief IFR in precipitation. Included PROB30
for TSRA and MVFR at all terminals from 15z-21z, with short term
updates likely for individual terminals as precipitation develops
and confidence increases on timing. Greatest coverage of TSRA
expected interior and Gulf coast/KAPF after 18z.

MARINE...
High pressure ridge over South Florida today will shift south to
over the Straits of Florida Friday and Saturday, leading to light SE
winds becoming S-SW Friday and Saturday. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms today with gusty winds and rough seas will gradually
become less numerous tonight and Friday as high pressure aloft
builds back into the area. By late in the weekend, winds once again
become SE and likely increase as the tropical system currently
depicted as TD 5 comes closer to our region. On the current NHC
forecast of this system near or over Cuba and the Straits of Florida
on Monday, winds and seas could begin to substantially increase late
Sunday and Monday. As indicated above, there is a lot of uncertainty
with the forecast for early next week so please stay up to date with
the latest forecasts from NHC.

Beach Forecast...
the rip current risk will likely increase at the Atlantic beaches
again on Sunday and early next week as SE winds increase ahead of
the tropical system in the Caribbean Sea potentially nearing Cuba
and the Straits of Florida. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms today will gradually decrease in coverage Friday
through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  89  77  93 /  30  60  10  30
West Kendall     75  89  75  93 /  30  60  10  30
Opa-Locka        75  89  75  93 /  30  60  10  40
Homestead        75  89  75  91 /  30  50  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  75  88  77  91 /  40  60  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  75  88  76  91 /  40  60  20  40
Pembroke Pines   75  89  75  91 /  40  60  10  40
West Palm Beach  74  89  74  92 /  40  60  20  40
Boca Raton       75  88  76  92 /  40  60  20  40
Naples           75  87  77  89 /  50  50  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Update/Aviation...Harrigan
Today through Friday and Marine...Molleda
Friday Night through Wednesday...BNB

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
836 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
020045-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
836 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms and Localized Flooding...
...Monitor The Progress of Tropical Storm Elsa...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected, mainly over the east coast in the morning through early
afternoon, and interior and Gulf coast in the afternoon and early
evening.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts are possible in or near showers and
thunderstorms over all local waters.

Wind: Gusty winds of 45 mph or greater are possible with the stronger
storms, mainly interior and Gulf coast this afternoon and evening.

Flooding: Areas of heavy rainfall today may result in localized
flooding, especially for metro areas along the coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus over the interior and
east coast areas Friday and Saturday, with gusty winds, lightning,
and locally heavy rain the main threats.

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move across the Caribbean Sea
Friday through the weekend, and approach Cuba and the Straits of
Florida late Sunday and Monday. It is still too early to determine
what, if any, impacts from Elsa will be felt in South Florida early
next week. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor updates to
the forecast for Elsa, and ensure that tropical cyclone preparedness
plans are in place.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Fell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1105 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

FLZ067-068-072-168-172-011545-
Coastal Broward County FL-Coastal Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
1105 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BROWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM EDT...

* At 1104 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Palm Aire, or over Pompano
  Beach. This storm was nearly stationary.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Lauderdale, Coral Springs, Pompano Beach, Boca Raton,
  Deerfield Beach, Tamarac, Margate, Lauderhill, Coconut Creek,
  Oakland Park, North Lauderdale, Lauderdale Lakes, Parkland, Mission
  Bay, Broadview-Pompano Park, Boca Pointe, Boca Del Mar, Hamptons At
  Boca Raton, Village Park and Whisper Walk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2617 8013 2617 8024 2640 8028 2641 8011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1504Z 244DEG 2KT 2622 8017

FELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
105 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

FLZ067-068-011730-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
105 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

* At 105 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles southeast of Indiantown,
  moving northwest at 10 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Palm Beach Gardens, The Acreage and Caloosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 2687 8020 2676 8035 2696 8050 2696 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 139DEG 9KT 2691 8038

RF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

FLZ063-066-067-011900-
Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-Glades FL-
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HENDRY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GLADES COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

* At 219 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Montura, moving north at 15
  mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Clewiston, Moore Haven, Montura, Devils Garden, Harlem and Lake
  Hicpochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 2684 8087 2650 8089 2652 8126 2685 8129
      2685 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 182DEG 13KT 2664 8108

RF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
236 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

FLZ071-073-074-011915-
Inland Broward County FL-Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-
236 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

* At 235 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Miccosukee Resort, or 13 miles
  northwest of Kendall, moving northwest at 5 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph and funnel clouds possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Doral, Miccosukee Resort, Tamiami, The Hammocks, Kendale Lakes and
  Kendall West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 2585 8036 2568 8044 2575 8065 2596 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 118DEG 5KT 2581 8050

RF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
302 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

FLZ066-070-011945-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
302 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLLIER AND CENTRAL
HENDRY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

* At 302 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Felda, or 7 miles northwest of
  Immokalee, moving north at 5 mph.

* Funnel clouds possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Ave Maria, Immokalee, Hendry Correctional, Felda, Devils Garden,
  Orangetree, Big Corkscrew Island, Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary, Keri,
  Bunker Hill and Lake Trafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2632 8166 2642 8166 2642 8156 2663 8156
      2664 8108 2631 8108 2628 8167 2632 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 167DEG 6KT 2649 8151

RF