Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1235 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Recurring showers/storms have been affecting the areas around
KMIA-KOPF-KTMB and should continue through early afternoon.
Eventually the better focus should begin to shift inland later
this afternoon. However until that time periodic TEMPO
ceiling/visibility restrictions are possible at the eastern
terminals. While lightning production has been somewhat sporadic,
did include VCTS for the southeastern terminals while leaving it
out farther north (KPBI) where chances appear lower. Breezy east
to east-southeast winds should continue, although gusty and
erratic near any thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 949 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021)

UPDATE...

Made a few changes to the forecast this morning to account for
increased coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms across
eastern Miami-Dade County and the adjacent coastal waters. PoPs
and thunder chances were increased for these areas as a result.

Otherwise the forecast is on track with the better shower/storm
chances progressing inland by this afternoon and early evening. A
few stronger storms are possible today should any taller cores
evolve. If so gusty winds are a possibility given dry air aloft,
theta-E differentials around 25K, and sufficient downdraft CAPE
(exceeding 900 J/kg on this morning's MFL sounding). As always,
locally heavy rainfall is expected in association with thunderstorms
today.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 729 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Prevailing VFR at the terminals with the best shower/storm
chances today across inland portions of the area. Left inherited
VCSH mention at the eastern terminals to cover any isolated
convection which may occur. Breezy east to southeast winds through
the TAF cycle with afternoon gusts to around 20 kt. The Gulf
breeze should turn winds more southerly at KAPF around 16-17z.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 244 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021)

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A few very small and isolated showers reside across the southern
Atlantic waters this morning. Outside of that, dry conditions
continue across Mainland South Florida. Looking aloft, the H5 flow
remains a rather dry northwesterly early this morning. Models show
this becoming a more zonal or progressive flow through the short
term period. This will allow for surface temperatures to increase
as heights gradually rise a bit. Additionally, with the mid-
levels slightly moistening, or at least not being quite as dry,
showers and T'storms will gradually increase a bit, especially
along sea/gulf breeze across the interior during the afternoon. In
fact, it appears the short term is an exact preview of what's to
come over the next several months in relation to a wet season
regime (inland showers/storms, easterly or southeasterly flow,
warm, and becoming humid). And similar to summer, can't rule out a
strong wind gust or two in the strongest convection with
favorable DCAPE values residing over the interior and even an
inverted V type forecast sounding also signaling a conditional
wind threat. Speaking of wind, nonconvective winds today will be
breezy along the immediate Atlantic coast with some gusts nearing
25mph at times during peak heating hours.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...
With the departure of the upper level trough and colder values
aloft, an expansive ridge of high pressure at 500mb will propagate
eastward across the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening. At the
surface, the Bermuda High will continue to remain the dominant
force in the boundary layer, allowing for the continued advection
of moist tropical air into Mainland South Florida. Diurnal sea-
breeze circulations on both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts will be
possible each afternoon as cooler moderated air is pulled inland
by low pressure at the mesoscale level, developed by ample surface
heating. Given the continued advection of moisture into South
Florida via onshore flow as well as the convergence boundaries of
both seabreezes, it appears that a wet period is in store for
South Florida next week. Outflow boundary interactions may also
provide for messy storm evolution, characteristic of wet season
diurnally driven convection.

By mid-week, a weak frontal boundary at the surface begins to move
southwards across the Southeastern United States. Southerly flow out
ahead of this boundary will allow for increasing PWAT's over our
area beginning on Wednesday. By Thursday, the phasing of the
subtropical and polar jetstream will occur over the Southeastern
United States and allow for cyclogenesis at the surface just
offshore of the east coast of northern Florida. The development of
low pressure at the surface as well as the synoptic forcing of a
500mb trough will allow for the weak cold front to move southward
into our area by late week. At this point, there continues to be
substainal uncertainty between the GFS and the European models.
The GFS has trended with a wetter progression of the boundary with
high PWAT's and ample convection associated with the boundary.
The Euro on the other hand, shows a drier passage of the front
with less convection occurring out ahead of the boundary
progression. Further trends in both models should be monitored as
we move into the new week.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...
VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Can't rule out
some convection later this afternoon, especially across the
interior. Used VCs to cover any isolated convection. Otherwise,
easterly flow will continue and may become gusty at times with a
few gusts nearing 20 knots during the afternoon for terminals
closest to the coast. Winds should subside around sunset this
evening.

MARINE...
Winds should remain east or even southeasterly through midweek.
The overall pattern favors a more summerlike regime with nocturnal
showers developing overnight; however, this activity should
remain somewhat isolated in coverage. Winds and seas look
marginally favorable today. The only concerns would be for a few
elevated wind gusts within the 15 to 20 knot range with slightly
elevated seas over the Atlantic.

BEACHES...
With a solid easterly flow regime setting up along the Atlantic
coast, a high risk of rip currents can be expected today. Rip
currents will decrease through the early part of the workweek as
low level flow generally weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  89  76  90 /  30  20  10  20
West Kendall     75  91  74  91 /  30  20  10  20
Opa-Locka        75  89  76  91 /  30  20  10  20
Homestead        76  89  75  89 /  30  20  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  77  88  76  88 /  30  20  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  77  87  75  88 /  30  30  10  20
Pembroke Pines   76  89  76  90 /  30  20  10  20
West Palm Beach  74  88  73  88 /  30  30  20  20
Boca Raton       76  89  75  89 /  30  30  20  20
Naples           73  90  74  91 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Update/Aviation...SPM
Today through Monday and Marine...Frye
Monday Night through Saturday...Hadi

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
933 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
100145-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
933 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021

...High Rip Current Risk Atlantic Beaches...
...A Few Strong Storms Possible Today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the east
coast beaches through early evening.

Waterspouts: Cannot rule out a waterspout in any shower or
thunderstorm over the south Florida adjacent waters as well Biscayne
Bay and Lake Okeechobee.

Wind: Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible within the
strongest thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

An elevated rip current risk will continue along the east coast
beaches on Monday

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each afternoon through
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1234 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

FLZ070-071-073-075-091715-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Collier County FL-Mainland Monroe FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
1234 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER...NORTHERN
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

* At 1234 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Dade-Collier Training Airport,
  or 31 miles west of Miramar, moving northwest at 15 mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph possible
  with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Big Cypress National Preserve and Dade-Collier Training Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2586 8070 2578 8087 2601 8114 2620 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 155DEG 13KT 2590 8084

HVN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
142 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

FLZ072-074-172-173-091815-
Coastal Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
142 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM EDT...

* At 141 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Golden Glades, or near Miami
  Gardens, moving northwest at 5 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Miami, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar, Miami Beach, Surfside,
  Miami Gardens, Hallandale, North Miami, North Miami Beach,
  Aventura, Miami Lakes, Sunny Isles Beach, Opa-Locka, West Park,
  Miami Shores, North Bay Village, El Portal, Westview and Hard Rock
  Stadium.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2583 8017 2591 8030 2603 8020 2592 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 131DEG 5KT 2591 8019

Weinman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
209 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

FLZ073-074-173-091845-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
209 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM EDT...

* At 209 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Coral Terrace, or over South
  Miami, moving west at 5 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Miami, Coral Gables, South Miami, Kendall, Doral, Pinecrest, Miami
  Springs, Sweetwater, West Miami, Medley, Westchester, Glenvar
  Heights, Fountainbleau, Kendale Lakes, University Of Miami, Coconut
  Grove, Coral Terrace, Olympia Heights, Sunset and Marlins Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2576 8017 2562 8027 2572 8045 2585 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 093DEG 5KT 2573 8032

Weinman