Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
235 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 8 PM...

.SHORT TERM...

Through Monday...

The shortwave responsible for initiating the MCS moving through the
region today will pivot through the Southeast and into the western
Atlantic through tomorrow. The synoptic cold front is forecast to
pass through south Florida with the wave passage tomorrow, clearing
out any remnant showers by late in the afternoon.

Showers are developing locally as strong southwesterly flow
transports moisture over the differential heating boundary caused by
leading stratiform from the upstream MCS. Strong theta-e advection
and robust destabilization is priming the region for severe
convection as the leading edge of the MCS' cold pool reaches south
Florida. Scattered, more discrete storms that form along the heating
boundary could produce large hail and damaging winds where favorable
thermodynamics intersect with increasing shear. As the main line of
storms passes, the main threat will be damaging winds, but embedded
circulations along the line could produce a tornado or two as well.
A bit after sunset, the line should clear our land areas with just
areas of light to moderate rain remaining.

Tomorrow's forecast will likely be messied by a remnant MCV or at
least a modified airmass associated with the trailing part of the
MCS that will advect into the region overnight. Generally speaking
there's more uncertainty in the forecast for tomorrow, but there's
certainly a potential for a few storms along the front, and with
favorable lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, a damaging wind
gust or some hail cannot be ruled out. For now, the threat appears
much lower than for today.

.LONG TERM...

No meaningful changes to the extended forecast. Previous
discussion follows.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 314 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021)

Tuesday and Wednesday...

High pressure swiftly builds back into the region, restoring
drier conditions for at least the first portion of the extended
period. Furthermore, with the axis of the ridge sliding to our
east, flow across the area should also quickly reorient out of the
east and then southeast by mid-week. The addition of an onshore
component will aid in keeping seasonable to slightly above normal
temperatures around through the forecast period.

Thursday through Saturday...

Winds continue to veer out of the south to southwest around late
week, enhancing moisture across South Florida ahead of the next
frontal boundary. Guidance currently depicts the front briefly
becoming stationary across Central FL by the end of week and then
oozing across South Florida through the weekend as a digging
shortwave trough gives the boundary the southward momentum it
needs. Therefore, an uptick in rain and thunder chances is
expected, mainly for the Lake region, east coast metro, and
adjacent Atlantic waters each afternoon. Although, confidence
remains rather low regarding the specifics with the lack in
consensus between global models the past few forecast cycles.
Thus, have not strayed from guidance, keeping generally 20-30%
POPs during this time. Will continue to monitor how the pattern
evolves and examine the finer details as they come into better
focus.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

In general VFR is expected through the remainder of the day,
however, IFR/LIFR restrictions are likely during periods of heavy
rain and thunderstorms that are expected at all terminals this
afternoon/evening. Gusty southwest winds, turning northerly and
remaining gusty are expected through the day in advance of, and
behind a line of storms. In the wake of the main line of storms,
periods of rain and MVFR ceilings should be expected through the
night and possibly into the morning tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...

A large area of thunderstorms is forecast to move across our Lake
and Atlantic waters this afternoon through the evening. Just ahead
of these storms, but mostly in their wake, Advisory conditions are
now forecast. Winds will gradually subside through the night, likely
falling below headline levels by morning Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...

There is a high risk of rip currents along Atlantic and Gulf beaches
through late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  89  68  85 /  50  30   0   0
West Kendall     71  90  66  87 /  50  30   0   0
Opa-Locka        72  88  65  85 /  50  30   0   0
Homestead        71  88  66  83 /  50  30   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  71  87  69  84 /  50  30   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  71  86  67  83 /  50  20   0   0
Pembroke Pines   72  88  66  86 /  50  30   0   0
West Palm Beach  70  85  65  83 /  40  30   0   0
Boca Raton       71  87  66  85 /  40  20   0   0
Naples           71  84  65  86 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Harrigan
Monday Night through Sunday...AR

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwsmiami
www.twitter.com/nwsmiami

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1016 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
120230-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1016 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS TODAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will be
possible across all of South Florida today. Ensure severe weather
safety plans are in order, and have a way to receive warnings.

Wind: Damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or greater will be possible with
thunderstorms today. In addition, elevated winds across the local
waters will be hazardous for boating today.

Hail: Damaging hail of 1-inch or greater will be possible with the
stronger thunderstorms today.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts will be possible across all local waters
today, with the greatest risk across the Atlantic, Biscayne Bay, and
Lake Okeechobee waters.

Tornadoes: A few tornadoes will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms todays, with the greatest risk along the east coast
metros.

Flooding: Flooding of roadways and low-lying areas will be possible
with repeated rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms today.

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for all South
Florida beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A few strong thunderstorms are possible on Monday. Lightning, heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and hail are the primary hazards.

A High Risk of rip currents is likely along most of the Atlantic
beaches through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local,
state, and CDC guidelines.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Weinman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
414 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

FLZ071>074-172-173-112115-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
414 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN
BROWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

* At 414 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Chula Vista, or near Hollywood,
  moving northeast at 5 mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph possible
  with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar, Davie,
  Plantation, Sunrise, Tamarac, Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, Hallandale,
  Miami Gardens, Lauderhill, North Miami Beach, Oakland Park,
  Aventura, Lauderdale Lakes, Dania Beach, Cooper City, Sunny Isles
  Beach and West Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern Florida.

LAT...LON 2594 8008 2594 8035 2619 8036 2619 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 230DEG 6KT 2608 8018

Weinman

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
425 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE LAKE WORTH        26.61N 80.03W
04/11/2021  M67 MPH          AMZ650             FL   BUOY

            BUOY STATION LKWF1 LAKE WORTH PIER, FL
            RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH (58 KT)
            ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER
            THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

SRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
426 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE HAVERHILL         26.68N 80.10W
04/11/2021  M55 MPH          PALM BEACH         FL   ASOS

            PEAK GUST AT ASOS STATION KPBI WEST PALM
            BEACH.

&&

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
435 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

FLZ066>068-070>072-168-172-112130-
Inland Broward County FL-Hendry FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
435 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COLLIER...
SOUTHEASTERN HENDRY...BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL
530 PM EDT...

* At 435 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Coconut
  Creek to near Intersection I-75 And U.S. 27 to 7 miles south of
  Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph possible
  with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Coral Springs, Pompano Beach,
  Davie, Sunrise, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Tamarac, Margate,
  Lighthouse Point, Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, Lauderhill, Weston,
  Coconut Creek, Oakland Park, North Lauderdale, Lauderdale Lakes,
  Parkland and Wilton Manors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southern, southeastern and southwestern Florida.

LAT...LON 2636 8004 2643 8095 2610 8096 2604 8034
      2617 8033 2616 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 240DEG 22KT 2625 8018 2622 8046 2629 8083

Weinman