Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
236 PM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021

.SHORT TERM...

Rest of Today through Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for the rest of
this afternoon and into this evening out ahead of an approaching
cold front. With the east coast sea breeze remaining pressed up
against the coastline, it will provide additional convergence over
the east coast and it could result in training of showers and
thunderstorms over these areas during this time frame. Showers and
thunderstorms will also be slow moving as the storm motion is rather
slow. Therefore, localized flooding will be possible across the east
coast metro areas as the afternoon and evening progresses. As the
cold front moves southeastward and interacts with an increasingly
unstable airmass as well as the sea breeze, an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon or this
evening. Gusty winds, heavy downpours, and hail are possible with
the strongest storms this afternoon and this evening. The latest
short term high res guidance continues to show the greatest threat
for strong to severe thunderstorms will be over the eastern portion
of South Florida during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Behind the front, a drier air mass will move into the region for
later tonight into Friday. A breezy north to northeasterly wind flow
will move into the region as the pressure gradient tightens over
South Florida. This will be due to a strong area of high pressure
building in from the north. With a good amount of cold air advection
taking place, temperatures tonight will be cooler than what they
have been recently as lows drop into the upper 40s over Glades and
Hendry counties to the lower 60s over the east coast metro areas.
The cooler weather will continue during the day on Friday as well as
high temperatures will range from the lower 70s across the Lake
Okeechobee region as well as the east coast metro areas to the mid
to upper 70s on the west coast.

.LONG TERM...

Friday Night through Thursday...

With the continued presence of a large dominating ridge of high
pressure to our north over the Southeastern United States, onshore
flow and cooler temperatures will prevail across South Florida in
the extended forecast period. Maximum and Minimum high temperatures
will be a few degrees below average across South Florida into early
next week as cold air advection continues in the wake of the frontal
passage. As the pressure gradient relaxes due to the frontal
boundary moving away from our area, winds will gradually decrease as
the weekend progresses. The onshore northeasterly flow along the
atlantic coast over the next several days will keep the Atlantic
metro areas warmer than the interior during the overnight hours. A
reverse effect will take place during the daytime hours, with the
cooler marine air that is advected in acting to limit maximum
temperatures along the atlantic coast, with higher maximum
temperatures inland. Towards the end of the extended period, the
high pressure centered over the SE CONUS begins to slide eastwards
into the Atlantic ocean which allows for winds area-wide to shift
more easterly. The continued onshore flow will act to induce a
gradual increase of temperatures towards the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

A cold front will bring an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and into this evening with the greatest
chances occurring over the eastern terminals. Periods of MVFR or even
IFR are possible in and around any shower or thunderstorm along with
gusty and variable winds. Behind the cold front, winds will shift
around to the north northeast and they will be gusty at times
tonight into Friday

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will continue to move through the local waters this
afternoon and tonight bringing an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms during this time frame. Behind the front, winds will
shift around to the north northeast and they will rapidly increase
along with building seas tonight over the Atlantic and Gulf coastal
waters. The increased winds and seas will last through the upcoming
weekend creating hazardous marine conditions over the local waters
during this time frame.

&&

.FIRE...

A cold front will bring a much drier air mass to the region for the
end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Minimum relative
humidity values over the interior and western portions of South
Florida will drop to near critical levels during this time frame.
Winds do not support a fire weather watch at this time and this will
continue to be monitored as the end of the week approaches.

&&

.BEACHES...

An elevated risk of rip currents will persist throughout the weekend
across the Atlantic waters due to a strong northeasterly flow
developing along with a building swell in the Atlantic waters. Rip
currents will also be elevated on Friday along the Gulf Coast due to
increasing northerly wind flow as well as well as building seas in
the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            63  75  61  75 /  40  10  10  10
West Kendall     61  75  57  76 /  40  10  10  10
Opa-Locka        61  74  61  74 /  40  10  10  10
Homestead        61  75  62  74 /  40  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  63  73  61  74 /  40  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  61  73  62  72 /  40  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   61  74  61  74 /  40  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  60  72  59  72 /  30  10  10  10
Boca Raton       61  72  61  73 /  40  10  10  10
Naples           54  76  52  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ610.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine/Fire/Beaches...CWC
Friday Night through Thursday...Hadi

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
854 AM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
020100-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
854 AM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021

...Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Eastern Areas...
...Hazardous Marine and Beach Conditions...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is an elevated risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today,
mainly across the Lake Okeechobee region, east coast metro areas, and
Atlantic waters. Some of these thunderstorms could become strong to
possibly even severe and they could contain heavy downpours, hail,
and gusty winds.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible across all the local waters
including Lake Okeechobee.

Wind: Gusty winds are possible today, especially in and around
stronger showers and thunderstorms. An isolated damaging wind gust
cannot be ruled out this afternoon in the strongest storms. Winds
will also increase over the Atlantic and Gulf waters behind the cold
front this afternoon and into tonight.

Hail: The strongest thunderstorms could contain hail up to quarter
sized.

Flooding: Localized flooding is possible across the east coast metro
areas today.

Waves: Seas of 8 to 12 feet are possible near the Gulf Stream, with
7 to 9 foot waves in the outer Gulf waters and the remainder of the
Atlantic waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The elevated rip current risk will continue through the weekend for
the Atlantic beaches and it will likely increase for the Gulf
beaches behind the cold front.

Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate behind the front as
northerly winds strengthen and seas build across the Atlantic and
Gulf waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1202 PM EDT THU APR 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     RIP CURRENTS     MIAMI BEACH             25.81N 80.13W
03/31/2021                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 2 FATAL ***
            DELAYED REPORT...MULTIPLE MEDIA OUTLETS
            REPORTED TWO RIP CURRENT RELATED DEATHS
            YESTERDAY MARCH 31 AT MIAMI BEACH NEAR 54TH
            STREET AND COLLINS AVE. MIAMI BEACH OCEAN
            RESCUE ALSO REPORTED MANY RIP CURRENT
            RESCUES.

&&

KELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
241 PM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021

FLZ066-070-011945-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
241 PM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLLIER AND
SOUTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

* At 240 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Big Corkscrew Island, or near
  Immokalee, moving southeast at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Ave Maria, Immokalee, Golden Gate Estates, Hendry Correctional,
  Orangetree, Big Corkscrew Island, Miles City, Sunniland, Bunker
  Hill and Lake Trafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2653 8145 2632 8116 2603 8140 2631 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 312DEG 16KT 2639 8153

AR