Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
239 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday):

A cold front will continue to move eastward generally through the
region this afternoon and evening. The problem is where exactly does
this front stall? Over the Gulf Stream would be enough to transition
winds to an offshore flow and reducing rain chances. However, a
stall right over the Atlantic metro could be bad news. A stall over
the metro would mean not only continued rain and storm chances, but
perhaps some flooding potential as well. In fact, PWATS from this
morning's sounding are right around 1.8" or so...which to put that
into perspective is roughly within the 99 percentile for this time
of year. With the boundary over and a unidirectional wind profile,
hydro concerns may arise, despite antecedent conditions being a bit
on the drier side. Rate could easily overpower absorption...plus the
urbanized regions are always slow to drain.

Severe weather? Still possible through the afternoon and perhaps
early evening hours. CAPE values from this morning's sounding were
also a bit impressive for 7am. Generally around 2200 J/KG. Although
heating will take place, there will be cloud cover, which will
overall limit destabilization during peak heating. Limited upper
ascent will also keep any severe threat on the lower end of the
scale. That said, with surface lifting (front) and plenty of
instability, continued mentioning strong to isolated severe storms
through the remainder of today.

Going into Wednesday, the front will slowly begin to move northward.
Since we will still be within close proximity, continued rain
chances through peak daytime heating. A few thunderstorms can be
expected, but the lackluster parameters should continue to limit the
overall severe weather threat. We'll need to continue to watch
exactly where showers and storms develop and if the aforementioned
scenario with the front stalling over the Atlantic comes to
fruition...what impact would that have on the possible hydro
situation. Regardless temperatures should generally remain above
average for both overnight low and daytime highs through the period.

Long term (Wednesday Night through Monday):

Models show a rather short-lived ridging/drier period from Wed night
through Thursday night as high pressure establishes over the region
in the wake of the front's departure. Subsidence and drier air will
bring POPs down to single digits by Thursday afternoon, along with
afternoon highs hitting the mid to upper 80s.

For Friday, models depict a longwave trough over the Gulf region
approaching and dragging a sfc front with it. So far consensus is
not too excited about potential for significant impactful weather
with this frontal passage, with mainly a narrow line of showers and
embedded thunder moving across SoFlo associated with the leading
edge of the boundary. Current timing has the front clearing the
peninsula Friday afternoon or evening, followed by a short period of
lingering post-frontal clouds and patchy light precipitation.

Drier and much cooler air will then pour into South Florida Friday
night through next weekend. Temperatures will remain well above
normals through Thursday, then highs cool down into the low-mid 70s
for the weekend behind the FROPA.

Quiet weather continues into early next week easterly flow returning
and slowly moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions expected for much of the cycle, however, the
Atlantic terminals may see intermittent drops to MVFR as
convection develops along a stalling front this afternoon. There
is also a signal that right along the front low CIGs will be
possible overnight again affecting the Atlantic terminals. Until a
stronger signal is present and more confidence develops we'll stay
low-end VFR for now. Otherwise, winds should remain light and
variable.

&&

.MARINE...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the local waters as a
frontal boundary stalls across the area. Locally hazardous boating
conditions are possible with lightning, gusty winds, and waterspouts
as potential hazards. More favorable marine conditions return by
late week as the front lifts away to our north and high pressure
rebuilds into the area.

&&

.BEACH...

Elevated rip current potential will continue along the Palm Beach
County Beaches through Wednesday. Although winds may shift to
offshore, the northeasterly swell will continue to create rip
current risks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  83  74  85 /  30  30   0   0
West Kendall     69  85  72  86 /  30  30   0   0
Opa-Locka        69  83  72  84 /  30  30   0   0
Homestead        69  83  73  84 /  30  20   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  71  83  74  85 /  30  40   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  71  82  73  83 /  40  40   0   0
Pembroke Pines   70  84  73  85 /  30  40   0   0
West Palm Beach  68  82  71  83 /  40  40   0   0
Boca Raton       70  83  73  85 /  40  40   0   0
Naples           65  83  69  83 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...HVN
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...AR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
950 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
170300-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
950 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...Isolated Severe Storms and Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible...
...A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Along The Palm Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today.
Strong to locally damaging wind is the greatest threat.

Tornadoes: A brief tornado is possible with the stronger storms
this morning.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible over the Atlantic waters and
Lake Okeechobee.

Wind: Strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible with the
stronger storms today.

Flooding: Heavy rain over the east coast metro areas could result in
localized flooding.

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip current along the Palm
Beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

An elevated rip current risk will persist across the Palm Beaches,
and an increasing rip current risk is anticipated by for all east
coast beaches by mid to late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

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