Special Marine Warning 467, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
344 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

.SHORT TERM (Rest of Today through Saturday)...
An area of high pressure will continue to bring a light south to
southwesterly wind flow to the region this afternoon as it continues
to gradually build into the area. With ample moisture in place,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along
the sea breezes as they push inland and interact with each other.
The highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain over
the interior and east coast metro areas. With poor lapse rates, and
rather warm 500mb temperatures, the potential for strong
thunderstorm development will remain low. The main concern with
thunderstorms today will be localized flooding due to the slow storm
motion and potential for heavy downpours. With the south to
southwesterly flow in place, the greatest potential for localized
flooding will be over portions of the interior and the east coast
metro areas later this afternoon and into the evening hours. High
temperatures will remain seasonal as they will range from the upper
80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior
sections.

Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish
as the evening progresses. The exception to this will be over the
Atlantic and Gulf waters, where additional showers and thunderstorms
could develop during the overnight hours. On Saturday, a weakness
develops in the ridge of high pressure as a trough digs into the
eastern seaboard. While the trough should remain well off to the
north, this will help to keep the light southerly wind flow in
place. Convection will once again be sea breeze driven with the
highest chances of showers and thunderstorms over the interior and
east coast metro areas in the afternoon and evening. The potential
for localized flooding will continue across portions of the interior
and east coast metro areas during the afternoon and evening hours
due to the slow storm motion continuing. High temperatures on
Saturday will generally range from around 90 across the coastal
areas to the lower 90s across the interior sections.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night to Friday)...
The long term forecast period opens with South Florida under a
moist tropical airmass focused by the tail of a departing area of
low pressure off the Atlantic seaboard of the United States. Over
near the northwestern Gulf and southern plains sits a cutoff mid-
level low. As the weekend ends and next week begins, a mid-level
trough will phase with the cutoff low which may help drag that
tropical moisture northward into the Tennessee and Ohio river
valleys. This will keep a plume of transported moisture somewhere
around the peninsula into early to mid week which will keep the
pattern unsettled with showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for the foreseeable future. Flooding could become a concern in
areas that see repeated heavy rainfall over several days and
become saturated.

Eventually a reinforcing trough arrives to provide the impulse that
could allow this pattern to advance near the end of the extended
forecast period. With a frontal passage potentially reaching
portions of Florida by the end of the forecast period, the
uncertainty with regards to impacts for mid to late week becomes
higher. Climatologically, it is not unusual for frontal boundaries
to enter the region in late September but passage with persistent
dry air behind the front would be slightly early in the season. With
that said, a faster progression of the pattern could lead to a
change in the latter part of the forecast which will need to be
monitored as the forecast evolves with time.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours. This could
create periods of MVFR or IFR at the terminals during this time
frame. South to southeast winds across the east coast terminals will
become light and variable this evening. At KAPF, west southwesterly
winds will continue throughout the afternoon before becoming light
and variable as well during the evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to gradually build over the
Atlantic and Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next
week. While the wind flow will remain rather light through the first
part of the weekend, an easterly wind flow will begin to build in
and gradually moderate early next week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible throughout the forecast period. Winds
and waves could be locally higher in and around any showers or
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  91  77  91 /  30  50  20  60
West Kendall     75  92  76  92 /  30  50  20  60
Opa-Locka        76  92  76  91 /  30  50  20  60
Homestead        74  90  76  90 /  30  40  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  77  90  78  90 /  30  40  20  60
N Ft Lauderdale  77  89  78  90 /  30  50  20  60
Pembroke Pines   75  90  76  90 /  30  50  20  60
West Palm Beach  75  90  76  90 /  30  50  20  60
Boca Raton       76  89  77  90 /  30  50  20  60
Naples           76  89  76  90 /  40  50  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...CWC
Saturday Night through Friday...RAG

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwsmiami
www.twitter.com/nwsmiami

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
954 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
180800-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
954 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms Today...
...Localized Flooding Possible...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop especially across the interior and east coast metro areas
this afternoon into this evening. The strongest thunderstorms could
contain heavy downpours, cloud to ground lightning, and gusty winds.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts are possible over the local waters.

Flooding: Localized flooding is possible with the heavier and more
concentrated showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the interior
and portions of the east coast metro areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day, primarily during the afternoon hours. Lightning and heavy
rainfall causing localized flooding are the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>