Special Marine Warning 305, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
238 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.SHORT TERM (This Afternoon through Thursday)...

For this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
transition from SW Florida to SE Florida as low level synoptic
westerly flow interacts with the east coast seabreeze. In the mid
and upper levels, a low pressure area/cyclonic circulation
associated with the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) is
moving west across the Straits of Florida and influencing the local
airmass across South Florida. Interesting feature on water vapor
imagery is an small patch of subsidence-induced drier air on the
north side of the TUTT low over SE Florida and the nearshore
Atlantic waters early this afternoon, which slightly delayed the
onset of convection over the eastern side of the peninsula. However,
this effect will be temporary as more moist air/divergence aloft
over Andros Island moves over the area this afternoon and should
help to develop/maintain showers and thunderstorms.

The light steering flow this afternoon will result in outflow
boundaries being the dominant forcing mechanism for new developing
and propagation of storms, with the westerly low level flow favoring
the eastern half of the peninsula as the afternoon progresses. Gusty
winds and plenty of lightning with the stronger storms can be
expected, and with the slow storm motion expect some storms to be
capable of dumping a quick 1-2" or more in a very short
time...leading to a localized flood threat.

Showers and thunderstorms should begin to wind down around sunset
and early this evening as usual, however will have to watch for
signals which suggest that precip could linger over the area tonight
from leftover convective boundaries interacting with the more moist
environment on the back side of the TUTT low. For now we have 20-30%
rain chances along both coasts tonight, but may have to increased
for at least part of the nighttime period in later updates if this
signal becomes more evident.

The TUTT low departs the area on Thursday as it moves into the SE
Gulf of Mexico, and ridging/high pressure beings to build into South
Florida in its wake. The evolution of these features along with the
persistent low level trough over North Florida will result in
increased moisture convergence over South Florida, so showers and a
few thunderstorms could begin earlier in the day across SE Florida
before spreading inland as the day progresses. Similar to today, the
main threats will be gusty winds, lightning, and localized flooding
due to slow-moving storms.

Heat index values will reach 100-103F over most areas this afternoon
and Thursday afternoon, although the duration of these values will
be somewhat mitigated by the showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...

No meaningful changes to the long term forecast, and the previous
discussion is included below.

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 342 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Thursday Night through Wednesday:

Heading into the long term period, the frontal boundary to our north
over the southeastern United States may be nudged south by a passing
mid-level trough associated with low pressure over eastern Canada.
The boundary will likely slide south as far as south central Florida
before becoming more diffuse as the support aloft pulls away. The
surface high pressure ridge axis will shift south of the region
allow for a southwesterly flow to develop for the weekend. The light
flow will allow sea and lake breezes to develop and advance inland
with the Gulf sea breeze favored on most days. This pattern will
generally remain into early next week though some subtle shifts in
the ridge axis could allow for a more southerly flow and additional
tropical moisture to enter the region. Temperatures will remain warm
with most areas seeing daily highs in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

TEMPO for scattered TSRA and MVFR/brief IFR at all east coast sites
through 22-23z as convection lingers over the area. Most of the
activity should be over by 00z, although there's a low chance of
additional/lingering SHRA/TSRA could continue even beyond 06z.
For now the forecast only has VCSH, but could need to be updated if
this additional precipitation materializes tonight. Winds become
more SE, albeit light, after 12z Thursday with VCSH/VCTS earlier in
the day. KAPF should remain dry until after 06z.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure at the surface will gradually build back across South
Florida from the Atlantic on Thursday, and continue into early next
week. This will lead to a return of SE-S winds across the local
waters. Speeds will be generally 10-12 knots or less with seas 3 ft
or less. Showers and thunderstorms will be fairly widespread over
the local waters tonight and Thursday, then gradually diminish in
coverage Friday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  92  78  92 /  40  50  30  50
West Kendall     77  93  77  93 /  40  50  30  50
Opa-Locka        77  92  78  93 /  40  60  30  50
Homestead        77  91  78  91 /  30  40  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  78  91  79  91 /  40  50  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  78  91  78  91 /  40  60  30  50
Pembroke Pines   77  91  78  91 /  40  60  30  60
West Palm Beach  76  91  76  92 /  40  60  30  60
Boca Raton       77  91  78  92 /  40  50  30  50
Naples           77  91  78  91 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Molleda
Thursday Night through Wednesday...RAG

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
213 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

FLZ070-071-073-075-281900-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Collier County FL-Mainland Monroe FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
213 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER...NORTHERN
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

* At 213 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Dade-Collier Training Airport,
  or 32 miles east of Chokoloskee, moving northeast at 10 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dade-Collier Training Airport and Big Cypress National Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2577 8089 2597 8104 2614 8082 2592 8062
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 231DEG 7KT 2593 8086

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
228 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

FLZ067-071-281915-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
228 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BROWARD AND WESTERN PALM
BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

* At 228 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Belle Glade to near Holey Land Wildlife Refuge. Movement was
  northeast at 10 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
  storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Belle Glade, Pahokee, South Bay, Okeelanta, Holey Land Wildlife
  Refuge, Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge, Belle Glade Camp and Fremd
  Village-Padgett Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2688 8044 2631 8049 2627 8083 2645 8085
      2683 8072
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 230DEG 20KT 2672 8071 2637 8076

CWC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
352 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

FLZ072>074-173-282030-
Metro Broward County FL-Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
352 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN
BROWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

* At 351 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Country Club, or over Miramar,
  moving southeast at 5 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Miami, Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar, Miami Beach,
  Coral Gables, Surfside, Miami Gardens, North Miami, Doral, North
  Miami Beach, Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens, Opa-Locka, West Park,
  Miami Springs, Miami Shores, North Bay Village and West Miami.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2574 8032 2596 8043 2602 8019 2581 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 318DEG 5KT 2594 8031

CWC