Special Marine Warning 202, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
249 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.SHORT TERM...

Low level southwesterly flow continues through the afternoon around
a large scale eastern US trough. A weak surface boundary resides
close to the Lake Okeechobee region and some relatively weak
convection has develop in this region with scattered showers
observed over northern Glades and the northern portions of Lake
Okeechobee. Going through the afternoon it appears the best
potential for rain/thunder will generally be around the lake closer
to this feature along with coastal portions of Palm Beach County.
The rain potential is nonzero along the Atlantic; however, the
better potential will be north of Alligator Alley. Across the west
coast, with low level southwest flow, expect mostly dry conditions
for those areas.

Tonight winds will become light and variable. With plenty of
moisture at the surface, can't rule out some patchy fog across our
fog favored locations (generally in the lower spots). Rain chances
will generally be low on Sunday across the region; however, with a
stagnant flow, the interior and perhaps the east coast (with subtle
southwest flow remaining in place) can expect the better "climo
POPs" on Independence Day (generally less than 40 percent).

Temperatures will remain very warm to hot across the region. With
the lack of convection through the short term, cold pools will not
help in most cases. Heat index values during the hottest part of
the day will climb beyond the century mark across all South
Florida.

.LONG TERM...

Monday through Tuesday Night...

As we move into Monday all eyes turn to the tropics and the
potential impacts across South Florida. Elsa will be approaching the
Florida peninsula as we end the weekend into the early next week.
Confidence has been increasing the the track guidance as global and
hurricane models are narrowing in in a track solution. However, the
intensity forecast still remains a bit uncertain. The extent of
impacts across South Florida will be highly dependent on the
intensity forecast and eventual track of Elsa.

All threats and impacts will be possible with Elsa. Heavy
rainfall and flooding rain will be possible with greatest area of
concern will be southwest/southern portions of South Florida and
additional areas that have saturated soils from the recent heavy
rainfall. Wind and storm surge threats will also be possible with
areas currently over southwest and southern portions of the
peninsula. However, these threats are highly dependent on the
intensity of Elsa which is low confidence at this time. Being on
the right side of the system in a favorable shear environment
there will be a tornado threat emerging as well. The threat will
begin with the outer rain bands and continue as the system moves
through the area through Tuesday.

With uncertainty residents and visitors to South Florida are urged
to continue reviewing their hurricane plans, while paying close
attention to forecasts and updates from the National Weather Service
in Miami throughout the upcoming holiday weekend.

Wednesday through Friday...

As Elsa departs from the region, high pressure will build as Elsa
moves northward away front the area. Southerly winds will continue
to allow moisture in the wake of Elsa. Sea breeze driven convection
each afternoon. There will be the potential for frequent lightning
strikes, heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Flooding potential will be
dependent on the rainfall received from Elsa across the area. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s and low 90s to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
VFR conditions through the cycle outside of convection. Best chances
for convection will be PBI and perhaps the Fort Lauderdale and Miami
Terminals (albeit lower south) through sunset. Cannot rule out a
short fused TEMPO, especially for PBI. Winds decrease this evening
around or just after sunset and should remain light through the end
of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the region is promoting light and
variable to light and southwesterly winds respectively. Convection
has decreased today, but remains nonzero, especially across the
Atlantic waters. Beyond the holiday weekend, conditions will
gradually begin to decline as Tropical Storm Elsa nears Cuba and
eventually the straits of Florida sometime during the day Monday.
Interests are urged to follow NHC forecasts for Tropical Storm Elsa
through the Holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Hot conditions will continue through the holiday weekend with heat
index values climbing above 100 degrees. Rip currents will generally
increase early next week ahead of Tropical Storm Elsa along with an
increase in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  92  78  88 /  30  30  40  80
West Kendall     76  93  77  88 /  20  30  40  80
Opa-Locka        77  92  77  89 /  30  30  40  80
Homestead        76  90  77  87 /  20  30  40  80
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  78  88 /  30  30  40  80
N Ft Lauderdale  78  89  78  88 /  30  30  40  80
Pembroke Pines   75  90  77  87 /  30  30  40  80
West Palm Beach  76  91  77  88 /  40  30  40  80
Boca Raton       77  91  78  88 /  30  30  40  80
Naples           76  91  77  91 /  10  20  10  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...Frye
Sunday Night through Saturday...Kelly

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwsmiami
www.twitter.com/nwsmiami

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1050 AM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
040300-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1050 AM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE REGION...
...MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF ELSA...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
across South Florida this afternoon. The strongest storms could
contain gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts will be possible with the stronger storms
this afternoon.

Wind: Locally strong wind gusts will be possible with thunderstorms
this afternoon, especially across the lake region and Palm Beach
County.

Temperatures: Maximum apparent temperatures will climb into the 100
to 104 range this afternoon across most of South Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Elsa is forecast to move across the Caribbean Sea through the rest
of the weekend, and approach Cuba and the Florida Straits late
Sunday and Monday. Impacts from wind, surge, rainfall, and tornadoes
will be possible across portions of South Florida from around Sunday
night through mid-week. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor
updates to the forecast for Elsa, and ensure that Hurricane
preparedness plans are in place.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters
are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to the National
Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Weinman