Special Marine Warning 180, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
255 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.SHORT TERM (Rest of Today and Monday)...

High pressure across the region as easterly flow continues. A bit of
drier air in the mid-levels today will help limit some of the
overall coverage. However, enough low-level moisture will allow
scattered showers and storms today. The focus of showers and storms
will move towards the interior and Gulf coast this afternoon and
evening. A weak Gulf breeze may try to develop as well, with enough
diurnal heating temps into the low 90s. The Gulf coast will be the
greatest area to see the potential for a strong isolated storm this
afternoon. Satellite has showed plenty of clearing and diurnal
heating across the western interior and Gulf coast. Lapse rates are
about 6.1C/km and forecast CAPE along the coast will be up to around
2500J/kg. An isolated gusty downburst and heavy rainfall will be
possible with the strongest storms.

As we move into Monday, High pressure continues with easterly flow
across the area. A mid to upper level low north of the region will
continue to keep some mid-level dry air across S. FL through the
first half of the day at least. More mid-level moisture returns to
the area towards the end of Monday and as we move into Tuesday. For
Monday, a similar patter to today with less overall coverage of
showers and storms but enough low-level moisture to allow for
scattered coverage. Same pattern of an east to west progression of
activity from the Atlantic and east coast in the morning to more
interior and Gulf coast in the afternoon and evening. Lapse rates
remain around 6C so not too impressive, but an isolated strong storm
can not be ruled out, particularly for the Gulf coast.

Otherwise, temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across South
Florida near normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...

Typical summertime pattern will continue into the long term
period. That said, POPs will start off higher than normal for this
time of year. Tropical moisture begins to stream into the region
from the western Atlantic and Caribbean through mid to late week.
Aloft, an upper high will spread westward across the southeast
U.S. Our region remain on the "moist" side of an inverted upper
trough. Diurnally driven convection will remain possible with
nighttime showers across coastal waters and immediate coasts then
during the day the potential shifting inland. With southeasterly
flow interior and southwest Florida seem to be the best
location(s) to portray higher QPF values from mid to late week.

An upper high will begin to nose westward across the region out
ahead of a trough digging across the northern Gulf and midsouth
regions this weekend, which may help limit POPs slightly with just
a touch of drier air filtering in overhead to round out the
forecast period. Generally, typical climo POPs would be supported
for the upcoming holiday weekend. With generally higher heights
and lower POPs, temperatures will likely warm a few degrees higher
by late in the week and especially by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Showers have begun to shift from the east
coast towards the interior and Gulf. VCTS for KAPF this afternoon,
with any tempos that will be needed added with amendments.Overall,
VFR conditions unless a shower or storm moves directly over a
terminal for brief periods of lower cigs and vis. Easterly flow
continues with showers once again possible over the Atlantic
overnight and tomorrow morning moving towards the east coast
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...

Easterly flow will persist into early next week with SCEC
conditions at times. Showers and storms remain in the forecast with
lightning, gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and elevated seas being the
primary hazards primarily around storms. Elevated seas in the Gulf
Stream will be 3 to 4 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...

A persistent easterly flow will lead to a High Risk of Rip
Currents for all Atlantic beaches through this evening. An elevated
risk of rip currents will continue into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  89  79  88 /  30  30  50  70
West Kendall     76  90  78  89 /  20  30  50  70
Opa-Locka        77  89  77  89 /  30  30  50  70
Homestead        77  88  77  88 /  30  30  60  70
Fort Lauderdale  79  88  79  88 /  30  30  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  78  87  78  87 /  20  30  50  70
Pembroke Pines   77  88  76  88 /  30  30  50  70
West Palm Beach  77  88  77  88 /  20  30  40  70
Boca Raton       78  89  78  88 /  20  30  50  70
Naples           75  90  75  89 /  40  60  50  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Kelly
Monday Night through Sunday...Frye

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
933 AM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
280145-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
933 AM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...Isolated Strong Storm Possible Along Gulf Coast...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible today with best
over the west coast. Isolated lightning strikes is the main concern.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible across all area waters with
showers and storms.

Wind: An isolated strong wind gust is possible with the strongest
thunderstorms over the Gulf Coast.

Flooding: Heavy rainfall from repeated rounds of showers and
thunderstorms may lead to localized flooding in urban and low-lying
areas along the Gulf Coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Showers and thunderstorms are possible each day with gusty winds,
and localized flooding possible.

An elevated rip current risk will likely persist early in the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.