Areal Flood Advisory 91, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
228 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.SHORT TERM (This Afternoon through Friday)...
For the remainder of this afternoon, numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms are expected to cover most of the interior of the
peninsula up to the Lake Okeechobee area, resulting from the
interaction of the seabreezes and earlier convection over the metro
areas of both coasts. Mean storm motion this afternoon is towards
the N-NE, which may cause a few storms to build back towards the
east coast metro suburbs towards early evening. Gulf coast areas
should remain mostly dry for the remainder of the afternoon.

Localized rain amounts in excess of 2" have been observed each of
the past few days, and expect this to happen again this afternoon.
The main focus for the heaviest rainfall and localized flooding will
be over the interior and Lake Okeechobee areas, with some potential
for back-building into the western metro sections of the east coast.

Tonight and Friday...high pressure in the mid/upper levels will
build into South Florida from the Bahamas in the wake of the upper
low over western Cuba moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Water
vapor imagery is showing a decent swath of drier air over the
western Bahamas likely associated with convergence aloft and perhaps
a little bit of Saharan dust, and this feature is forecast to move
over the area late tonight and Friday. Model consensus is responding
to this feature by showing slightly lower PoPs compared to the past
few days, and will follow this general solution. Nevertheless,
scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms will still
be the case on Friday, focusing more over the interior and Lake
Okeechobee/Palm Beach County areas during the afternoon and early
evening as the mean storm motion will be towards the NW.

Heat index values will top out at 100-105F over most areas this
afternoon and Friday outside of areas of precipitation, with the
duration of the higher values increasing on Friday with longer
periods of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...

Friday Night through Sunday:

Mid-level ridging will prevail along the equatorward side of an
upper trough located over New England. The ridge will strengthen
across our area this weekend as mid-level heights rise to 594-595
dm. This will support the westward branching of surface high
pressure into our area from the central Atlantic during this time.
With deep ridging and subsidence in control look for temperatures to
really heat up this weekend. Leaning towards the National Blend of
Models (NBM) 90th percentile values for high temperatures, which
suggests mid to upper 90s for inland areas with lower 90s along the
coasts. Given the onshore wind regime along the Atlantic, a decent
temperature gradient should exist between the beaches (upper 80s)
and western suburbs closest to the Everglades (upper 90s). Be sure
to stay hydrated and take breaks if you have outdoor plans.
Otherwise despite the prevalent ridging still expect a few showers
and storms with the flow regime favoring western inland area and the
Gulf coast for the best chances.

Monday through Thursday:

Mean upper troughing will deepen across the eastern states while
suppressing the mid-level ridge farther equatorward towards the
Greater Antilles and Bahamas. While our area remains within the
western periphery of the surface ridge, this pattern change should
allow more moisture to flow back into the region. As such shower and
storm coverage should increase. Given light steering flow locally
heavy rainfall and street flooding are the primary concerns, along
with a few stronger storms producing gusty winds. Otherwise
temperatures should remain seasonally warm, with highs mostly in the
90s and lows in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Scattered SHRA/TSRA affecting some east coast terminals, but not
expected to be widespread as the precipitation gradually moves
inland. TEMPO TSRA with MVFR conditions being handled in the
forecasts on a short term basis, with VCTS the prevailing conditions
through 00z (earlier ending at KAPF). Slightly drier for Friday with
slightly less TSRA coverage and SE wind 8-10 knots by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure at the surface will build across South Florida from
the Atlantic to end the week and through the upcoming weekend. This
will lead to prevailing SE-S winds across the local waters. Speeds
will be generally 10 knots or less with seas 3 ft or less. Showers
and thunderstorms will be fairly low in coverage compared to the
past few days, then perhaps increasing again on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  92  79  93 /  30  40  20  30
West Kendall     77  93  77  93 /  40  40  10  30
Opa-Locka        78  93  79  93 /  30  40  20  30
Homestead        78  91  78  91 /  30  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  79  92  80  92 /  30  40  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  79  92  79  92 /  30  40  20  30
Pembroke Pines   78  92  78  92 /  30  40  20  30
West Palm Beach  77  92  77  93 /  40  50  20  40
Boca Raton       78  93  79  93 /  30  40  20  30
Naples           78  92  79  92 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Molleda
Friday Night through Thursday...SPM

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