Areal Flood Advisory 7, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
909 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

.UPDATE...
A few changes to the forecast this morning. Latest TAFB surface
analysis depicts a stationary boundary draped across the area.
This combined with ample low-level moisture has allowed showers to
develop and drift over the east coast metro, most notably showers
in Miami Beach and near Pompano Beach have produced around a inch
of rain this morning. Others showers are also developing along
the boundary and drift around with little movement. Looking at
the 12z MFL sounding you can see the that there is little to no
wind or storm motion in the effect layer. These showers are all
fairly low topped given the drier air once you get above the 750mb
level. The drier air and weak lapse rates of 5.5C/km will help
keep these showers shallow in nature and help to limit any
thunderstorm potential today.

With that said, continued development of scattered showers across
the region today as we have the low-level moisture and boundary to
help with initial lift. As we do get into the afternoon a little
more diurnal heating will allow for a little more coverage over
the interior and the east coast through the afternoon and evening.
With the slow storm motion, there may be very isolated areas
where flooding may be possible of low-lying poor drainage areas.
Therefore, this slight chance of flooding has been introduced into
the HWO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 628 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
Frontal boundary across the area with mainly prevailing VFR
conditions. Some showers with VCSH will bring brief periods of
MVFR cigs/vis. Winds will gradually veer to southeast throughout
the afternoon, except for APF will become westerly with a gulf
breeze around 17Z. Light winds overnight. Fog potential will be
possible mainly over the interior and left out of the terminals
for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 304 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021)

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
A decaying cold front continues to drift southwards across the
extreme Southern Florida Peninsula this morning. Meanwhile, A ridge
of high pressure is established aloft across South Florida, which
has largely resulted in benign and quiet conditions during the
overnight hours. As an easterly flow continues to advect moist air
as well as diurnal heating after sunrise, there is a slight chance
of showers along the atlantic coast as the day progresses. Aside
from a few brief passing showers from time to time, a relatively
quiet day is expected. High temperatures today will range from the
upper 70s along the Atlantic coast, to the low to mid 80s across the
Gulf coast and Lake Okeechobee region, and in the mid 80s across
portions of the western interior.

Precipitation chances begin to decrease on Thursday as dry air moves
into the region in the wake of the frontal passage and as high
pressure remains in firm control. A gradual warming trend will
continue on Thursday, as maximum temperatures continue on the
increase.

LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)... The remnant front will
remain fairly close to our region before dissipating, however,
with only limited lift early Friday, expect only isolated showers
mainly off the Atlantic coast. Otherwise, aloft an impressive H5
ridge will continue to drive our overall weather across south
Florida. This high situated across the southern Gulf and western
portions of the Caribbean will allow for a progressive/zonal flow
across the southeast United States. With the storm track well to
our north, expect mostly dry conditions, however, low topped
convective showers may be possible where the best boundary layer
moisture manifest (generally close to the Gulf Stream) within the
surface southerly or southeasterly flow regime. Otherwise,
subsidence aloft will dry things above the boundary layer and with
strong insolation across interior south Florida later this
week and into the weekend, drier air will likely mix down. With
the drying there could be at least a modest fire weather threat
as relative humidity values drop into the 40 to 50 percent range.

The high aloft will persist, but begin to flatten later this
weekend and early next week as a weak shortwave attempts to
amplify over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and central Gulf
Coast. Globals show the front move through the region sometime
Tuesday or just beyond as the wave continues to amplify across the
western Atlantic. At this range the confidence is somewhat on the
low side. For now it is worth mentioning the possibility of a
FROPA, but with run to run differences, will take a wait and see
approach and allow a few more runs to solidify confidence before
buying into this solution. Outside of that, above climo temps
expected with some places across the interior reaching the 90
degree mark later this week and into the weekend.

MARINE... A frontal boundary remains draped across the extreme
Southern Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters this morning. This
boundary may allow for showers to develop across area waters
during the morning and afternoon hours of today. As dry air
filters in behind the frontal passage and high pressure continues
to build over our area, benign and quiet boating conditions can be
expected for all area waters through the remainder of this week.

BEACHES...
There is a high risk of rip currents for Palm Beach county
beaches. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Broward
county beaches. With marine conditions subsiding in the wake of
the frontal passage, elevated rip current conditions may subside
by the end of this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            69  83  70  83 /  20  20   0   0
West Kendall     65  85  68  85 /  20  10   0   0
Opa-Locka        67  82  68  83 /  20  20   0  10
Homestead        67  82  69  82 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  69  82  71  83 /  20  20   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  68  82  70  82 /  20  20   0  10
Pembroke Pines   68  84  69  84 /  20  20   0  10
West Palm Beach  68  81  68  82 /  20  20   0  10
Boca Raton       68  82  69  83 /  20  20   0  10
Naples           62  81  64  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Update/Aviation...Kelly
Today through Thursday and Marine...AR
Thursday Night through Tuesday...Frye

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