Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1152 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 904 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021/

UPDATE...
Numerous strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Mid South.
We have already experienced a significant tornado move through
eastern Arkansas, W TN, and the MO Bootheel. The atmosphere
remains ripe for deep convection and strong tornadoes through the
night. We are currently watching a line of storms take shape over
eastern Arkansas. These storms have had a history of producing
damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rain. We expect these storms
to continue to push east overnight. Please stay weather aware and
have multiple ways to receive warnings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 532 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021/

DISCUSSION...

The main story this forecast package will be the potential for
severe storms this evening. Highs will mainly be in the mid 70s
today with lows generally in the 60s.

Currently, scattered warm advection showers are expected, but
should start to ramp up in the next few hours. SPC Mesoanalysis
shows moderate instability MLCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg and 300+
m2/s2 of SRH. Likewise, low-level shear values 40-50 kts basically
along the enhanced risk area. With that being said, we still have
a cap in place. Models show the cap eventually breaking after
sundown. However, the main line of convection should move in
around 07z. Should any storms develop after sundown, the
combination of MLCAPE ~1500 J/kg and deep- layer shear greater
than 50 kts will be supportive of supercells. Again, this is
conditional that the cap in place breaks. Thus far, we have gotten
reports around the area of clouds dispersing, so the potential is
increasing.

The severe weather potential really increases after 00z and
despite the time of day, instability should hold steady. Ahead of
the line, deep layer shear and SRH will increase with the threat
still prevalent. CAMs suggest the initial wave of supercells will
basically form into a line of organized storms along/ahead of the
actual cold front overnight. Main hazards will be damaging winds,
large hail, and tornadoes (strong tornadoes possible). There is
the potential for breaks in the line which will have the potential
for damaging winds and tornadoes. Bottom line, be prepared for
severe weather to start moving into the area around 5 PM in the
form of supercells, then a line of storms will push through around
06z and move eastward. All modes of severe weather is possible
with the main hazards being tornadoes (some of which could be
strong) and damaging winds. Large hail and heavy rainfall are the
other hazards.

The front is expected to move into our southeastern counties by
about 15z, bringing thunderstorm chances to an end. There's a
possibility for some trailing showers but the severe weather
potential will be low. Expect colder temperatures with gusty
northwest winds throughout the day tomorrow. High temperatures
will be in the 60s.

Dry and cool weather is expected into early next week. Expect
temperatures to bounce back to the lower 70s by midweek. There is
a slight chance for some light showers Tuesday but confidence is
low. Lows will be in the 30s by Sunday and increase to the mid 40s
by midweek.

SWB

&&

.AVIATION...
For 06Z TAF Cycle

A couple lines of thunderstorms moving through the Mid-South at
this time. The first line is strong convection with wind generally
from the south-southwest and the second line is associated with
a frontal system. When frontal system moves through there will be
a wind shift to have Northwest winds. Winds will be gusty for the
next few hours with gusts near 40 kt. After front winds will still
be gusty yet gusts will be around 25 kt. TLSJr

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
236 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-112245-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
236 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a moderate to slight risk across the Mid-South this
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon and throughout the overnight hours. Tornadoes, damaging
winds, and large hail will be the main hazards from any severe
storms that develop. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as
well.

Strong southerly winds will affect the Mid-South today and tonight
with gusts over 30 mph at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms early Saturday
morning, mainly across portions of northeast Mississippi. Damaging
wind will be the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening and tonight.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to
the NWS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1059 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             4 N DYER                36.13N  88.99W
12/10/2021  E1.00 INCH       GIBSON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR DYER, TENNESSEE, WITH ABOUT
            30-40 MPH WINDS.

&&

TLSJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1100 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     TORNADO          KENTON                  36.20N  89.01W
12/10/2021                   GIBSON             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE HOUSES DESTROYED IN KENTON.

&&

MJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1103 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     TORNADO          KENTON                  36.20N  89.01W
12/10/2021                   GIBSON             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF MULTIPLE POWER LINES DOWN, TREES DOWN, AND
            IMPASSABLE ROADS.

&&

MJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1211 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     TORNADO          DRESDEN                 36.28N  88.69W
12/10/2021                   WEAKLEY            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** TORNADO WITH AT LEAST 1 PERSON INJURED IN
            DRESDEN WITH 6 BUILDINGS DAMAGED.

&&

TLSJR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1226 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

TNZ004-110700-
Henry TN-
1226 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Henry
County through 100 AM CST...

At 1226 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paris, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paris, Paris Landing State Park, Cottage Grove, Puryear, Foundry
Hill, Buchanan, India, Osage, Whitlock, Porter Court, Conyersville,
Pine Hill and Big Sandy Unit Tennessee National Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CST for western
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 8803 3636 8809 3634 8810 3626 8842
      3640 8850 3650 8829 3650 8806 3647 8805
      3645 8806 3644 8806 3643 8804 3637 8800
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 242DEG 39KT 3634 8837

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
130 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

TNZ053-089>091-110800-
Hardeman TN-Fayette TN-Chester TN-McNairy TN-
130 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Fayette, Hardeman,
northwestern McNairy and southern Chester Counties through 200 AM
CST...

At 130 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cloverport to near Collierville. Movement
was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bolivar, Chickasaw State Forest, Chickasaw State Park, Whiteville,
Somerville, Silerton, Masseyville, Lagrange, Cloverport, Robertson,
Warren, McNairy, Macon, Oakland, Piperton, Bethel Springs, Middleton,
Rossville, Moscow and Williston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CST for northeastern
Mississippi...and western Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8889 3500 8964 3514 8964 3540 8921
      3542 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0730Z 266DEG 27KT 3537 8897 3500 8962

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SMW