Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
320 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Fast-moving showers and isolated thunderstorms are pushing across
the Mid-South ahead of a cold front this afternoon. The heaviest
rain will likely be confined to our MS counties late tonight, with
rainfall amounts possible between 0.25-0.75" as the system
passes. The majority of the convective activity should diminish by
late tonight, and cloud cover will clear up from west to east
within the next few hours. We will likely also have some patchy
fog across the area persist this afternoon into the evening in
association with this system.

The Arctic airmass behind the front is anomalously cold and dry, so
we should have chilly sunny days with cold clear nights for the next
few days. The setup for Monday night into Tuesday morning looks
optimal for significant radiational cooling under clear skies and
light winds at night, leading to our coldest period of the season so
far. Tuesday morning's lows will drop into the mid 20s across much
of the area, particularly in more rural areas and portions of west
TN. High pressure dominates until Tuesday evening when the surface
high shifts to the east and southerly flow gradually builds back in.
This will provide a brief warming period mid week and keep
temperatures mild in the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday and
Thursday.

Model consensus is now in more agreement that Thanksgiving day will
be rainy as part of another frontal system. A cold front will come
down from the Great Lakes area Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning, encouraging a line of showers ahead of the front. In
addition to this cold front, surface analysis suggests that a
stationary front will briefly orient itself SW-NE over the Mid-South
on Thursday morning and gradually progress to the east, thus adding
to the influx of warmth and moisture to support the development of
showers. PoPs on Thanksgiving day are in the 60-80% range
throughout the day, maximized in the late morning to early
afternoon. Most of the rain should be out of the area by the
overnight hours of Friday morning.

In the extended forecast, high pressure builds back in on Friday and
dominates through the weekend. Next weekend looks cool and dry, with
a return of widespread subfreezing temperatures starting Friday
morning.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR conds are widespread across the area in advance of a cold
front moving into the region. Expect conds to lower to IFR for a
few hours this afternoon into this evening. There is some elevated
instability north of I-40 and as a result there have been a few
TSRAs. Given latest CAMs will add a VCTS for KMEM and KTUP later
this afternoon into this evening. South winds will shift to N at
10 kts late this afternoon into this evening and conds will
improve to VFR this evening. VFR with N/NNE winds at 10-12 kts on
Monday.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
326 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-222330-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
326 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms capable of producing hail will occur into the
evening hours. Areas of patchy fog will be possible across the
region through this evening as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
337 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

MSZ002-003-TNZ088>090-212215-
Marshall MS-Benton MS-Hardeman TN-Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
337 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Marshall, northwestern Benton, southern Fayette, southwestern
Hardeman and southeastern Shelby Counties through 415 PM CST...

At 337 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cordova, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bartlett, Collierville, Germantown, Olive Branch, Cordova, Memphis,
Lamar, Lakeland, Arlington, Mt Pleasant, Lagrange, Southeast Memphis,
Eads, Michigan City, Slayden, Macon, Oakland, Piperton, Rossville and
Moscow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 8919 3498 8972 3499 8973 3499 8983
      3502 8998 3524 8980 3519 8910
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 279DEG 41KT 3513 8970

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
340 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

TNZ052-053-090-091-212215-
Hardeman TN-Chester TN-Madison TN-McNairy TN-
340 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Hardeman, McNairy, south central Madison and Chester Counties through
415 PM CST...

At 339 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chickasaw State Forest, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Bolivar, Selmer, Chickasaw State Forest, Chickasaw State
Park, Adamsville, Silerton, Masseyville, Robertson, McNairy, Bethel
Springs, Eastview, Michie, Toone, Hornsby, Finger, Stantonville,
Milledgeville, Enville and Medon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8836 3532 8837 3529 8837 3507 8838
      3520 8905 3546 8898 3546 8836 3540 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 274DEG 42KT 3536 8890

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

SJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
340 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

ARZ036-TNZ088-212215-
Crittenden AR-Shelby TN-
340 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Crittenden and northern Shelby Counties through 415 PM CST...

At 339 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jericho, or 7 miles northwest of Marion, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bartlett, West Memphis, Marion, Millington, Meeman Shelby Forest
State Park, Memphis, Crawfordsville, Sunset, Gilmore, Jericho,
Ellendale, Frayser, Midtown Memphis, Downtown Memphis, Turrell,
Clarkedale, Mound City, Barretville, Booker and Griffin Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 9034 3542 9017 3538 9018 3538 9014
      3540 9015 3541 9014 3541 9011 3538 9008
      3540 9000 3538 8972 3510 8991 3522 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 279DEG 41KT 3530 9028

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
341 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

MSZ001-007-008-212215-
Tunica MS-DeSoto MS-Tate MS-
341 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern DeSoto,
northeastern Tunica and Tate Counties through 415 PM CST...

At 340 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
North Tunica, or 18 miles southeast of Hughes, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hernando, Senatobia, Coldwater, Tunica, Phillipp, Strayhorn,
Arkabutla, Little Texas, North Tunica, Trinity, Savage, Prichard,
Sarah, Poagville, Bowdre, Bluff, Robinson Gin, Lurline, Dooley and
Alphaba.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 9036 3481 8981 3455 8985 3455 8993
      3463 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 276DEG 34KT 3472 9029

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

SJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
345 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

ARZ035-036-048-212215-
St. Francis AR-Cross AR-Crittenden AR-
345 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern St.
Francis, west central Crittenden and southern Cross Counties through
415 PM CST...

At 344 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McCrory, or 12 miles east of Augusta, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wynne, Parkin, Village Creek State Park, Caldwell, Colt, Jennette,
Fair Oaks, New Home, Cottonwood Corner, Fitzgerald Crossing, Jonquil,
Round Pond, McElroy, Blackfish, Kinton, Hicks Station, Lucerne,
Whitmore, Rosenbaum and River Front.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 9104 3525 9040 3499 9045 3511 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 279DEG 41KT 3523 9116

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KRM