Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
634 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021/

DISCUSSION...

A significantly cooler day across the majority of Mid-South this
afternoon. Temperatures are running about 10 to 15 degrees cooler
than just 24 hours ago, thanks to a mid summer cold front. The front
has pushed through the majority of the CWA, except the two bottom
rows of counties over north Mississippi. Behind the front,
northerly winds, lower dewpoints, and clouds persist. Temperatures
in this area range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints
around 70F. To the south of I-40, most locations are still a bit
humid right now with heat indices in the triple digits for much
of north Mississippi.

The aforementioned front will finally push through the rest of the
region overnight. Hi-res models continue to show scattered convection
developing in the next couple of hours, mainly across north
Mississippi. The atmosphere there remains unstable, especially
across our southern tier, so any storms that can develop a decent
cold pool have the chance to become strong to severe. The main threat
will be gusty winds. Post-frontal showers and thunderstorms may
continue across portions of north Mississippi overnight and through
Monday afternoon, although confidence remains below normal.

The Mid-South will see a generous break from the heat this week as
an upper low drops into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Expect low
humidity, northerly winds, and mainly clear skies each day. It
will definitely feel like Fall after this past week of oppressive
heat. Expect high temperatures in the 80s each day with lows in
the 60s. In fact, a few rural areas in west Tennessee may fall
into the upper 50s on Wednesday morning.

A gradual warming trend will finish off the workweek. A small
chance of rain will occur on Friday as a shortwave rotates through
the region. Next weekend looks mainly dry and near normal with
typical summertime humidity.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs

Frontal boundary cleared TUP earlier this afternoon, ending TSRA
potential. VFR will prevail over the Midsouth tonight. Some patchy
fog can't be ruled out at MKL, but scattered midlevel clouds and
weak influx of drier post-frontal air should limit IFR potential.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
617 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-030130-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
617 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible through early this
evening over portions of North Mississippi. Gusty winds and
localized heavy rainfall will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
551 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

MSZ022-023-012315-
Calhoun MS-Chickasaw MS-
551 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Calhoun County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southwestern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 550 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea to dime size
hail and winds to 45 mph was located over Derma, or 15 miles west of
Houston, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also likely with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Calhoun and southwestern Chickasaw Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3382 8940 3393 8923 3375 8900 3375 8903
      3374 8904 3374 8919 3372 8919 3372 8933
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 321DEG 12KT 3382 8927

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
635 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

MSZ024-020000-
Monroe MS-
635 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 635 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds up to 40 mph was located near Prairie, or 7 miles
north of West Point, moving south at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Monroe County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3368 8849 3368 8872 3379 8872 3376 8838
      3369 8837 3368 8838 3369 8839 3368 8840
      3367 8842 3368 8843 3366 8846 3367 8848
      3366 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 007DEG 10KT 3372 8866

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
639 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

MSZ022-023-020015-
Calhoun MS-Chickasaw MS-
639 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Calhoun County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southwestern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 639 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing dime size hail and
winds to 45 mph was located near Pyland, or 9 miles southwest of
Houston, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning
will occur with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Calhoun and southwestern Chickasaw Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3375 8924 3390 8912 3381 8892 3381 8893
      3375 8893 3375 8903 3374 8904 3374 8919
      3372 8919 3372 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 305DEG 12KT 3379 8911