Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
245 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level circulation spinning across the Mid-South helping to
touch off showers and thunderstorms. Over the next day or so this
circulation should weaken and retrograde to the southwest.  The main
threat with these thunderstorms is localized heavy rainfall with a
marginal risk for excessive rain posted by WPC for our area. Do not
believe a flash flood watch is warranted at this time as coverage
is expected to remain fairly random and heavy rainfall isolated in
nature.  Additionally, with an abundance of low level moisture some
patchy fog may develop later tonight.

As the circulation moves to our southwest, diurnal convection will
diminish in coverage, but remain a threat for most of the area into
the weekend.  Temperatures will gradually inch back to near normal
by the end of the week

Toward the weekend the strong upper level high over the Mountain
West slowly moves east, thus resulting in more normal July heat and
humidity.  The threat for diurnal storms will continue as well as
the dog days of summer are upon us.

 Belles

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

Low clouds with showers and thunderstorms will continue to scattered
across the area this afternoon into early evening as a weak front
sinks slowly south.  The weak northeast surface flow does not bring
appreciably drier air at the surface, thus fog is possible at MKL
later tonight/early Tuesday. Looks like at least scattered to broken
low clouds (015-020) will linger tonight into Tuesday morning as
surface flow remains light with plenty of low level moisture.

 JEB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
325 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-201015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
325 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk for flash flooding today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a Marginal Risk for flash flooding Tuesday and Wednesday
over mainly northeast Mississippi.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
330 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

ARZ018-026-192100-
Greene AR-Craighead AR-
330 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
North central Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...

At 329 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing heavy rain and winds
at least 40 mph was located over Paragould, moving southwest at 15
mph.

Very heavy rain along with frequent cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Greene and north central Craighead Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3615 9050 3601 9037 3581 9062 3603 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 054DEG 13KT 3605 9051

WOODALL