Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
300 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a nearly closed upper
circulation centered near Oklahoma City. Warm sector destabilization
had increased the coverage east of a surface pressure trof oriented
along the MS River.

For this evening, expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to
slowly decrease, focused mainly east of the weak surface pressure
trof lifting through west TN. Additional showers and perhaps an
elevated thunderstorm or two will be possible overnight ahead of a
700 mb trof axis rotating through.

Additional showers will likely develop to the north and east of
Memphis Thursday, aided by diurnal heating and cooler temps aloft,
near the base of the upper trof. To the south, a midlevel dry
slot should result in lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
relative to today.

Upper ridging will prevail Friday behind the exiting trof. An
elevated mixed layer (EML) based around 750mb should cap most if
not all deep convection, in the absence of any significant bulk
shear. Temps Friday should warm to seasonal values, under scattered
cumulus, and with light winds.

For the weekend, attention turns to the a closed upper low over
south TX. If mid and high level clouds downstream of the upper low
aren't too thick, the erosion of the EML should allow for the
return of diurnally-enhanced isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Rain chances should progressively pick up a Sunday and Monday, as
the upstream upper low lifts into the north TX, and the western
Ozarks, respectively. Storm coverage will continue the diurnal
trend each day, peaking in coverage from midafternoon through
early evening.

Embedded in the upper ridge and surrounded by weak steering flow,
the upper low will become nearly stationary while gradually
weakening through the middle of next week. At this early time,
it's a bit unclear where the remnant energy will end up. But it
does appear it will provide sufficient weakness in the upper ridge
for diurnally-enhanced showers and thunderstorms over the
Midsouth. Temps should average near normal, with areas of brief
local cool-down near thunderstorm outflows.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/
Showers and thunderstorms will persist through the evening. CIGs
will slowly deteriorate from MVFR to IFR. Coverage is low at this
time so confidence is too low to put TEMPOs. Later tonight into
tomorrow morning, fog will be a threat to the TAF sites. CIGs will
improve by tomorrow afternoon.

SWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
314 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-031015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
314 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms over areas along and
east of the Mississippi River on Wednesday. Damaging winds will
be the primary risk if any thunderstorms reach severe limits.
Localized heavy rainfall also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late Wednesday afternoon east of
the Mississippi River.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

MSZ014-015-021830-
Pontotoc MS-Union MS-
1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Union County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 1256 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Pinedale, or 11
miles southwest of New Albany, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Pontotoc and Union Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3426 8917 3436 8925 3445 8925 3460 8902
      3460 8890 3446 8879 3441 8879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 236DEG 24KT 3438 8915

SWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
306 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

MSZ006-017-022030-
Itawamba MS-Tishomingo MS-
306 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 306 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds in excess of 40
mph was located over Fairview, or 9 miles southwest of Red Bay,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Itawamba and southeastern Tishomingo Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3425 8818 3420 8829 3435 8841 3471 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 235DEG 26KT 3435 8827

SWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
431 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

TNZ002-022200-
Obion TN-
431 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR...

Central Obion County in western Tennessee...

At 431 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Troy, or 10 miles
southwest of Union City, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in central Obion County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3625 8925 3634 8930 3650 8906 3629 8896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 244DEG 19KT 3633 8920

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
454 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

MSZ009-016-017-022230-
Itawamba MS-Lee MS-Prentiss MS-
454 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northern Lee County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southwestern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 454 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Saltillo, or 9
miles north of Tupelo, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Itawamba...northern Lee and southwestern
Prentiss Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3432 8881 3439 8881 3439 8879 3446 8879
      3450 8875 3450 8874 3451 8873 3468 8849
      3441 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 244DEG 20KT 3439 8875

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
458 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

TNZ002-003-022230-
Weakley TN-Obion TN-
458 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Obion County in western Tennessee...

At 458 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Union City, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Weakley and northeastern Obion Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3634 8866 3629 8903 3642 8910 3650 8895
      3650 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 244DEG 24KT 3637 8900