Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
702 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

.UPDATE...

See the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Convection continues to develop across Missouri ahead of a cold
front that stretches across Northern Missouri into Eastern Kansas.
The convection is firing up along an old outflow boundary. Some
additional showers and thunderstorms have developed out ahead of
the line. Expect this trend to continue with isolated/scattered
development occurring across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel over the next couple of hours. Expect the main line of
convection that is developing across Southern Missouri along the
old outflow boundary to push into Northeast Arkansas by 6-7 PM
CDT. The line is moving into an area of 3000-4000 J/KG of CAPE
that is located over Eastern and Central Arkansas. As a result,
expect the line to begin intensifying over the next couple of
hours. Damaging winds will be the main threat from the storms.

The line will continue to push through the Mid-South over the
course of the rest of the evening into the overnight hours. The
line will likely weaken by the overnight hours. The remnants will
work the atmosphere over for Friday as the cold front moves into
the region except for portions of Northeast Mississippi.
Redevelopment may begin around noon time across areas along and
southeast of a Iuka to Tupelo to Calhoun City line. Some of these
storms may become severe, but the risk will only last a couple of
hours as convection will quickly push to the southeast. Otherwise,
a few lingering showers may occur behind the front. Temperatures
will be cooler behind the front with highs in the mid to upper
70s.

High pressure will begin to settle over the Ohio Valley by Friday
Night and will remain in place throughout the holiday weekend.
Expect beautiful conditions with cool temperatures and low
humidity. Temperatures may begin warming by late in the weekend
into Memorial Day as upper ridging begins to occur over the area.
Expect highs to range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s Saturday and
Sunday. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

An upper level low will begin to move into the Central and
Southern Plains by the middle of next week. Disturbances will
rotate around the upper low setting off showers and thunderstorms.
Models continue to disagree on timing, but Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday will likely be the best chances for rain.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

First line of storms is currently affecting JBR and slowly moving
east northeast. This line is expected to build back to the
southwest and push into MEM and MKL around 28/06Z. Kept a VCTS at
MEM in the short term to account for activity nearby. Went with
tempo groups to account and time the wind shift at MEM around the
push. Wind gusts may approach 35 kts with the line of storms.

Trailing SHRAs can be expected through early morning,
before tapering off by late morning. Expect VFR conds to fall to
MVFR/IFR with the heaviest SHRAs overnight, with MVFR/IFR CIGs
hanging around through tomorrow morning. Winds will shift to the
northwest tomorrow afternoon behind a cold front. Expect a few
gusts to 20 kts and VFR conds through the end of the period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1210 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-281915-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
1210 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the
overnight hours as a cold front moves across the region. Damaging
winds will be the main threat from the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe storms may redevelop along the cold front across Northeast
Mississippi Friday afternoon. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
609 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

ARZ009-MOZ113-115-272330-
Clay AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
609 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Clay County in eastern Arkansas...
Northern Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
Southeastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 606 PM CDT...gusty northwest winds to around 40 mph were moving
across Dunklin and Pemiscot Counties. These winds are occurring with
an outflow boundary well ahead of a line of thunderstorms. These
storms will move through the area as well, but gusty winds will
arrive first. This may result in blowing dust and could damage
weakened trees.

People in southeastern Clay...northern Pemiscot and southeastern
Dunklin Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3639 8997 3639 8975 3642 8974 3643 8973
      3640 8967 3641 8961 3637 8957 3600 9008
      3611 9029 3614 9024 3618 9022 3620 9020
      3620 9023 3650 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 291DEG 34KT 3647 8993 3615 9038

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
613 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

ARZ018-026-028-MOZ113-272345-
Greene AR-Craighead AR-Mississippi AR-Dunklin MO-
613 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR...

Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Eastern Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...
Northwestern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 612 PM CDT...strong thunderstorms producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located along a line extending
from near Cardwell to near Jonesboro. These gusty winds may occur
well in advance of the thunderstorms, so be prepared for a rapid
increase in northwest winds. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Greene...eastern Craighead...northwestern Mississippi and
southwestern Dunklin Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3603 9084 3623 9063 3612 9030 3600 9008
      3572 9055 3601 9084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 285DEG 28KT 3611 9031 3588 9069

MJ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>