Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
249 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Convection continues to develop across Missouri ahead of a cold
front that stretches across Northern Missouri into Eastern Kansas.
The convection is firing up along an old outflow boundary. Some
additional showers and thunderstorms have developed out ahead of
the line. Expect this trend to continue with isolated/scattered
development occurring across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel over the next couple of hours. Expect the main line of
convection that is developing across Southern Missouri along the
old outflow boundary to push into Northeast Arkansas by 6-7 PM
CDT. The line is moving into an area of 3000-4000 J/KG of CAPE
that is located over Eastern and Central Arkansas. As a result,
expect the line to begin intensifying over the next couple of
hours. Damaging winds will be the main threat from the storms.

The line will continue to push through the Mid-South over the
course of the rest of the evening into the overnight hours. The
line will likely weaken by the overnight hours. The remnants will
work the atmosphere over for Friday as the cold front moves into
the region except for portions of Northeast Mississippi.
Redevelopment may begin around noon time across areas along and
southeast of a Iuka to Tupelo to Calhoun City line. Some of these
storms may become severe, but the risk will only last a couple of
hours as convection will quickly push to the southeast. Otherwise,
a few lingering showers may occur behind the front. Temperatures
will be cooler behind the front with highs in the mid to upper
70s.

High pressure will begin to settle over the Ohio Valley by Friday
Night and will remain in place throughout the holiday weekend.
Expect beautiful conditions with cool temperatures and low
humidity. Temperatures may begin warming by late in the weekend
into Memorial Day as upper ridging begins to occur over the area.
Expect highs to range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s Saturday and
Sunday. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

An upper level low will begin to move into the Central and
Southern Plains by the middle of next week. Disturbances will
rotate around the upper low setting off showers and thunderstorms.
Models continue to disagree on timing, but Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday will likely be the best chances for rain.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

Convection approaching the I-44 corridor attm will impact the
Mid-South this evening into the overnight. VFR conds through
early evening then expect some sort of line to push into NE AR
around 27/23z and then push SE. Added a tempo for TSRA at KJBR.
Not sure on how the line will evolve during the evening so kept
VCTS at KMEM and KMKL for now. Additional convection is expect to
form across the area as a cold front drops south into the area so
kept VCTS going until 28/10z at KMEM. Convection will reach KTUP
around 28/09z though a few SHRAs/TSRAs are not out of the question
as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. By 12z Friday, most
of the convection should have pushed to the east of the region, at
least for the time being. Expect some low clouds in the morning
with clearing around mid day. Some redevelopment is possible
across NE MS Friday afternoon as the slow moving cold front pushes
through.

AMD NOT SKED for TUP due to missing METAR

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1210 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-281915-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
1210 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the
overnight hours as a cold front moves across the region. Damaging
winds will be the main threat from the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe storms may redevelop along the cold front across Northeast
Mississippi Friday afternoon. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
530 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

ARZ009-272300-
Clay AR-
530 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR...

Western Clay County in eastern Arkansas...

At 529 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Biggers, or 11
miles northeast of Pocahontas, moving east at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in western Clay County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 9037 3626 9049 3627 9081 3629 9081
      3630 9079 3628 9078 3628 9075 3641 9075
      3641 9077 3642 9076 3643 9078 3643 9077
      3644 9078 3649 9077 3650 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 261DEG 35KT 3638 9081

MJ