Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
319 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is moving through the Mid-South at this time
while a SFC low is located near Savannah, Tennessee with a
trailing cold front stretching across North Mississippi. Stronger
convection continues to develop across West Tennessee and
Northeast Mississippi this afternoon. Have yet to see any
lightning strikes. Can't rule out a thunderstorm developing mainly
across Northeast Mississippi where the sun popped up earlier this
afternoon allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 70s. Gusty
winds and small hail would be the main threat from these storms.
Elsewhere, patchy showers will continue in association with the
upper trough moving through the area. Expect the shower activity
to diminish this evening as the upper trough moves east.

High pressure will begin building into the region overnight.
Expect clearing skies. If winds die down earlier than expected,
fog could develop.

The high will move into the Mid-South on Sunday. Expect plenty of
sunshine with highs in the lower 70s.

An upper ridge will build over the region early next week. This
will allow for warmer temperatures to occur across the area.
Expect highs to reach into the lower 80s, possibly a few locations
could see mid 80s.

The Canadian and ECMWF continue to be much slower with the next
system as both models dig a deep upper trough across the West
which eventually develops into an upper level low. The Canadian
actually develops the upper low over Northern Mexico and cuts it
off by Thursday allowing the northern upper trough to push a cold
front through. The ECMWF develops the upper low over New Mexico
and slowly moves it eastward which will keep the front stalled
somewhere in the vicinity of Southern Missouri to Northern
Arkansas. Regardless, both models are much slower with the onset
of showers and thunderstorms. As a result, removed POPS for
Tuesday Night and have lowered POPS for Wednesday. Really expect
precipitation to hold off until at least Wednesday Night. If the
front does stall out, there could be a heavy rain threat due to
training of convection. The GFS remains an outlier as it is too
progressive with the upper trof. Stay tuned.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

Deformation zone clouds and showers will rotate through the forecast
area over the next 12-18 hours.  Enough surface heating may occur
across northeast Mississippi to cause thunder, otherwise VFR
conditions will emerge across all TAF sites by the end of the
forecast period. Also, increasing or gusty northwest winds will
occur, most pronounced east of the Mississippi River.

 JEB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
248 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-252200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
248 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated strong thunderstorms may develop over Northeast
Mississippi this afternoon. Gusty winds and small hail would be
the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
339 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

MSZ006-242115-
Tishomingo MS-
339 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR...

Northern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 338 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located over Iuka, moving east at 45 mph.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning is also possible with this
thunderstorm.

People in northern Tishomingo County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3474 8812 3474 8831 3492 8832 3494 8816
      3493 8816 3491 8814 3489 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 265DEG 38KT 3484 8823

BELLES