Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
307 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A warm front continues
to move north and is now just south of the region. A few
thunderstorms have developed just north of this warm front across
portions of southwest Arkansas.

As the warm front continues to move north late this afternoon and
this evening more thunderstorms are expected to develop with some
moving into the Mid-South. Some of these thunderstorms could have
large hail and damaging winds. In addition, a cold front will move
into Arkansas from the west tonight, bringing another round of
thunderstorms for tonight and into early Saturday morning. These
thunderstorms could also be severe with damaging winds, large hail
and isolated tornadoes. Temperatures tonight will be on the warm
side with lows Saturday morning in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The cold front will move through the Mid-South Saturday morning
with gradually ending from the west to east during the morning.
All of the rain should be east of the region by afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday behind the front with
highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

High pressure will build into the region by Saturday night
bringing a period of dry weather from Saturday night through
Monday evening. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for
Saturday night with a warming trend for Sunday and Monday.

Another cold front will drop through the region Monday night with
a chance of showers mainly for western and southern sections of
the Mid-South. The weather pattern then becomes somewhat unsettled
for Tuesday through next Friday with periods of showers each day.
Temperatures will return to near or slightly below normal for this
period as well.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Low level moisture continued to surge up the delta southwest of
MEM at midday, while a cluster of TSRA was spreading east into
south central AR. CAMS were a little slow with this activity
earlier this morning, but feel the timing of the parent upper
level disturbance will still bring TSRA into the MEM 25SM
vicinity by 22Z, consistent with earlier forecast reasoning.

Second TSRA wave should arrive overnight, but lacking the
instability at MEM and MKL  to have the impacts of the earlier
evening round. TUP should be more favorably positioned for
stronger gusts and TSRA coverage, given proximity to greater
moisture an instability.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
433 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-101100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
433 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Mid-
South from late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Damaging
winds will be the primary hazard, but large hail and a few
tornadoes are possible as well. The greatest risk will be across
north Mississippi and east-central Arkansas. Locally heavy
rainfall will contribute to a flash flooding threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Gusty west winds are expected on Saturday, mainly across northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. Wind
gusts may exceed 30 mph at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through
tonight.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
604 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     HAIL             STANTON                 35.46N  89.40W
04/09/2021  M1.00 INCH       HAYWOOD            TN   PUBLIC

&&

SGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
604 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ036-048-049-MSZ007-092330-
St. Francis AR-Lee AR-Crittenden AR-Tunica MS-
604 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR...

Eastern St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas...
Northeastern Lee County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...
Northwestern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 604 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Brickeys, or 11
miles east of Marianna, moving north at 35 mph.

People in eastern St. Francis...northeastern Lee...southwestern
Crittenden and northwestern Tunica Counties should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3514 9063 3514 9055 3505 9027 3504 9028
      3504 9029 3501 9031 3499 9031 3469 9049
      3475 9070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 200DEG 28KT 3480 9057

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
608 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

MSZ004-014-092345-
Tippah MS-Union MS-
608 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR...

Southern Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Union County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 608 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over New Albany, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southern Tippah and Union Counties should monitor this
storm closely.

LAT...LON 3460 8873 3456 8873 3438 8899 3438 8909
      3446 8920 3460 8913 3460 8909 3468 8909
      3480 8903 3464 8872 3460 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 221DEG 19KT 3447 8906

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