Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
430 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across the forecast
area this morning as expected. The good news is that there has not
been much in the way of severe storms this morning...so far. The
warm front will continue to move northward setting the stage for a
high impact weather day for the area. The Storm Prediction Center
has put a portion of the forecast area in a High Risk of Severe
Storms. The rest of the area is in an Enhanced to Moderate Risk. A
very dangerous day is coming together over the southeast United
States. We can talk about all the indices and the set up and all
of that, but we are kind of past that stage in the game. We are at
the stage where real time obs, sat, and radar will show us what
we have in store for the day, but my inclination is that it will
be a long and busy day. Short range guidance still points to a
significant severe weather outbreak across the forecast area
capable of producing strong, violent, long track tornadoes this
afternoon mainly across northeast Mississippi. Large hail,
damaging winds, and flash flooding will also be on the table
today. We expect the morning convection to continue to push north
and move out of the area as we break into the warm sector. It will
be breezy today across the region. Have opted not to go with a
Wind Advisory this morning. We will watch to see exactly how far
north everything gets but it seems as though we should not have a
problem for most of the forecast area. Convection could start as
early as noon across north Mississippi. Any storms that develop
this afternoon could have the potential to become severe quickly
and rotate shortly after development. Storms will also be moving
fast once things get going. Meaning...if you get a warning today
you may not have a lot of time to react. The main time frame for
the worst of the storms looks to be roughly between 2PM-7PM. All
storms should be out of the area by 8PM. The main takeaway for
this morning is to be weather aware today. A very dangerous day is
shaping up for the region. Have multiple ways to get warnings.

After the storms move out tonight, Friday looks to be pretty nice.
High pressure builds into the area. A stalled front will start to
drift northward late Friday night into Saturday. This will serve
focus for more thunderstorm development. So much so that we have
a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for late Friday night for
portions of the area. For Saturday a Slight Risk of Severe
weather exists for the entire area. More storms are expected to
develop. Heavy rain may be an issue this weekend as well. We dry
out as we close out the weekend. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Not much change from the 00Z TAFS. Made some minor timing
adjustments from the onset of convection overnight tonight. Once
that convection lifts north, expect conditions to return to VFR
for at least a short period of time before afternoon convection
comes rolling in. Continued a TEMPO for the line of convection
expected ahead of the front at KJBR, KMEM, KMKL and added one at
KTUP. Supercells will likely develop ahead of the line of
convection that occurs along the front. Thus have a bigger time
window for the TEMPO at KTUP. Low-level wind shear will occur and
left mention of the TAFS. At the surface, winds will be gusty
from the south behind the morning convection. Expect winds to turn
more to the west behind the afternoon convection. Speeds will
remain sustained at 12-15 MPH with higher gusts.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
457 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

MSZ023-024-251030-
Monroe MS-Chickasaw MS-
457 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR...

Central Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 457 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Trebloc, or 7 miles
northeast of Montpelier, moving northeast at 55 mph.

People in central Monroe and southeastern Chickasaw Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3381 8872 3381 8893 3376 8893 3380 8896
      3409 8844 3409 8837 3389 8823 3369 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 0957Z 240DEG 48KT 3377 8882