Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2021
Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN
NWS Memphis, TN issued this special weather statement at Feb 28, 2021, 4:46 PM CST for Cross County, Arkansas. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 28, 2021, 4:46 PM CST (22:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 28, 2021, 5:15 PM CST
- In force
- 29 min
- Issued by
- NWS Memphis, TN
County Cross County, AR
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 448 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -16 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 525 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 65 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 396 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 396 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.8
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Feb 28, 2:24 PM CST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 2:24 PM CST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
224 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
.DISCUSSION...
Flooding and severe storm potential remain the primary concerns
through late evening. Damaging wing gusts, a few tornadoes and flash
flooding are all possible.
This afternoons surface analysis showed lower/mid 60s dewpoints
extending into western KY and southeast MO. Dewpoints over northeast
AR were a few degrees cooler, but should warm with the surface warm
front north of the area. At the surface, a cold front extends from a
central WI surface low southeastward into MO/OK and west TX.
The front will be the main focus for severe weather this afternoon.
Storms should follow the front as it moves through the area.
With broken clouds, areas continue to support 1500+ j/kg MLCAPE
this afternoon. Effective bulk shear values of 50+ kts and
helicity values around 300 will support organized storm
structures. With that being said, deep layer shear is nearly
parallel to the front which will favor a more linear storm mode.
Within this line expect training storms that will cause flash
flooding, especially to our northern areas that have already
received 3 inches. Other threats will be gusty winds and
tornadoes. Hail doesn't seem as big of a threat but there's still
a possibility. Short term model guidance suggests precipitable
water values in excess of 1.8 inches will prevail in advance of
the cold front exceeding the 99th percentile of late February
precipitable water climatology. As far as timing, the line should
move through around 3 PM and continue to push south and finally
move out of the area by Tuesday.
By Tuesday we should see some additional, lighter rain as a closed
show passes through the Mid-South. We should have a slight dry
period Wednesday into the weekend. By the weekend a low pressure
system will dart across the desert southwest and push more showers
into the area by Sunday. As far as temperatures, models have our
area cooler than the previous runs, but dry.
SGW
&&
.AVIATION...
A few showers and storms are ongoing across the forecast area.
Current forecast is on track with the best chances for convection
will occurring ahead and along the cold front that should impact
most the area after 21Z. Lingering light rain will continue for a
couple of hours behind the front. IFR conditions will likely
occur with the convection, but conditions will improve quickly
behind the front. Gusty southwest winds will occur through frontal
passage. Thereafter, winds will remain gusty as direction
switches to the NW and eventually to the north.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-
Phillips-St. Francis.
Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for Clay-Craighead-Greene-
Mississippi-Poinsett.
MO...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.
TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for Benton TN-Carroll-Chester-
Decatur-Fayette-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Madison-
McNairy-Shelby-Tipton.
Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for Crockett-Dyer-Gibson-
Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Obion-Weakley.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 2:26 PM CST, 2 hours 20 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 226 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-012230- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 226 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Tornado Watch has been issued for most of the Mid-South. See website for more details. Locally heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring a risk of flooding through late tonight. There is a Slight to Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall for portions of the Midsouth through tonight. There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for the entire Midsouth through tonight. The primary severe risks will be damaging winds. A few short-lived tornadoes will also be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be necessary through late this evening.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Feb 28, 4:43 PM CST, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0441 PM FLASH FLOOD UNION CITY 36.42N 89.05W
02/28/2021 OBION TN TRAINED SPOTTER
4.25 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT. COUNTY WIDE
FLOODING PROBLEMS. SOME BUSINESS FLOODED.
&&Special weather statement, Feb 28, 4:46 PM CST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
446 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
ARZ027-035-036-048-282315-
Poinsett AR-St. Francis AR-Cross AR-Crittenden AR-
446 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 515 PM CST
FOR...
Southeastern Poinsett County in eastern Arkansas...
Northwestern St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas...
Cross County in eastern Arkansas...
Northwestern Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...
At 445 PM CST...strong thunderstorms producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located along a line extending
from near Hickory Ridge to 6 miles northeast of Fair Oaks to near
Hunter. Movement was east at 40 mph.
Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.
People in southeastern Poinsett...northwestern St. Francis...Cross
and northwestern Crittenden Counties should monitor this storm
closely.
LAT...LON 3526 9104 3529 9102 3547 9095 3562 9031
3537 9041 3506 9064 3505 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 260DEG 37KT 3541 9092 3530 9096 3511 9110
MGWThe office that day
Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 9:03 PM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | MEG | Alcorn, Benton, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Coahoma, DeSoto and 16 more | 7 hr |
| Feb 27, 6:37 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Decatur | 23 min |
| Feb 28, 11:47 AM CST | River Flood Warning | MEG | Obion, Weakley | 65 hr |
| Feb 28, 11:49 AM CST | River Flood Warning | MEG | Dyer, Gibson, Obion | 7 days |
| Feb 28, 11:50 AM CST | River Flood Advisory | MEG | Decatur, Perry | 5 days |
| Feb 28, 3:15 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Dyer, Lake | 33 min |
| Feb 28, 3:37 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | MEG | Lake, Obion | 2 hr |
| Feb 28, 4:37 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | MEG | Dyer, Lake, Obion, Weakley | 5 hr |
| Feb 28, 4:44 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | MEG | Lake, Obion | 5 hr |
| Feb 28, 5:16 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | MEG | Lauderdale | 3 hr |
| Feb 28, 5:34 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Lauderdale, Shelby, Tipton | 41 min |
| Feb 28, 4:56 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Crittenden, Cross, Poinsett | 49 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.