Alert archive / Texas / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

September 30, 2021Terrell County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this special weather statement at Sep 30, 2021, 6:41 PM CDT for Terrell County, Texas. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 30, 2021, 6:41 PM CDT (23:41 UTC)
Expired
Sep 30, 2021, 7:15 PM CDT
In force
34 min
Issued by
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Hail
0.50 in
Wind
50

County Terrell County, TX

The radar

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 173 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-09-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2299 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-09-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2299 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
571 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
6 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
2.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Sep 30, 2:48 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 2:48 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
248 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

Varied conditions at TAF sites for this period. A cold front has
moved through CNM and HOB and a dryline through PEQ, FST, and MAF.
Winds will be northwesterly behind these features. Rain and
thunderstorms will be possible now through this afternoon and
evening at all TAF sites. Guidance and observations indicate large
uncertainty and have added SHRA at all TAF sites. Will amend for
VCTS or TSRA as needed or if guidance increases confidence. Winds
will become northeasterly tonight. An additional round of showers
and thunderstorms may be possible, but varied guidance keeps
confidence low. All TAF sites can expect ceilings to lower to
MVFR late tonight into the early morning tomorrow. Reduced
visibilities and lower ceilings may be possible at CNM, HOB, and
PEQ, but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the region.
The forecasted cold front is currently located just south of the
I-20 corridor with a dryline pushing east into the Lower Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin. Strong to severe thunderstorms have
developed along this intersection. A severe thunderstorm watch has
been issued for our eastern third of counties. The severe weather
is a result of the abundant forcing for thunderstorms, moderate
instability, and marginal bulk shear. Additional thunderstorm
development along and ahead of the cold front and dryline may
yield more multicellular thunderstorms that may become severe as
we go through this afternoon and evening. Additional activity is
redeveloping off of the higher terrain in response to the upper
trough west of the region and attendant shortwaves. This activity
will move into much of the region later this afternoon and
evening. This activity is less likely to be strong to severe as it
is behind the aforementioned boundaries and in a regime of weaker
instability. Regardless, heavy rainfall is possible with this
activity and localized flooding will be possible, especially in
areas that have already received rainfall. High temperatures will
depend heavily on cloud cover and the location of thunderstorms,
but 80s can be expected for most.

Later this evening and overnight, additional rounds of
precipitation will be possible across the region. These will be in
response to the upper trough becoming closed off over the Four
Corners and shortwaves rounding the periphery of this feature.
This activity will transition to more showery precipitation as
instability wanes, but isolated thunder will remain possible.
Heavy rainfall and localized flooding may be possible in areas
that see the most precipitation. Lows tonight range from the mid
50s to 60s due to rain and cloud cover.

By Friday, the upper low begins to close over New Mexico. Our
region will be post-frontal behind the cold front with much cooler
temperatures. High temperatures should only reach into the 70s
for most. Additional widespread rain continues to be possible for
much of the region with isolated thunder mixed in. By Friday
night, the upper low ejects into the central plains and
precipitation chances will begin to wane from west to east across
the region. Our western areas that clear out sooner may have lows
down into the low 50s by Friday morning with upper 50s to low 60s
further to the east where cloud cover holds out for longer. It
will be a soggy end to September and beginning of October, but the
rainfall is appreciated after a mostly dry month.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through  Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

All of the action is in the short term, with the extended forecast
being much more benign. By Saturday, the large upper level low
currently to our west will be moving into the Central Plains
pushing the rain east of our CWA. However coming out of the desert
southwest, it will not have access to cold air so the cold front
it pushes through on Saturday will bring only a wind shift and not
any cooler temperatures.

As it treks east, the upper low will merge with a low in the
upper Midwest, deepen and become stationary in the Mississippi
River Valley. Northerly circulation around the low will then
remain over West Texas and eastern New Mexico for the middle of
next week. At the same time a second low will move into the West
Coast causing a weak area of high pressure to develop along the
Rockies. The high will be strong enough to keep us dry but not
take temperatures above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  76  61  81 /  70  70  60  10
Carlsbad                 57  75  55  80 /  80  60  20  10
Dryden                   66  83  67  83 /  80  60  50  20
Fort Stockton            61  77  61  81 /  70  70  50  10
Guadalupe Pass           53  69  54  72 /  80  50  10   0
Hobbs                    57  72  54  78 /  80  70  40  10
Marfa                    53  74  52  78 /  60  60  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     61  73  60  81 /  80  70  60  10
Odessa                   61  74  61  81 /  80  70  50  10
Wink                     61  76  60  83 /  70  60  40  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...91
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 30, 3:23 AM CDT, 15 hours 18 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
323 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-010830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
323 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 /223 AM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected across the region today and tonight, with
strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening,
especially across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos south to the Rio
Grande. Large hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning will be
possible. Heavy rainfall is also expected, which could lead to
localized flooding and flash flooding concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding through Friday,
especially across portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 30, 3:28 PM CDT, 3 hours 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
328 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

TXZ279-280-282-302115-
Central Brewster County TX-Chisos Basin TX-Lower Brewster County TX-
328 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Brewster County through 415 PM CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Castolon, or 22 miles southwest of Panther
Junction, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Panther Junction, Big Bend National Park and Chisos Basin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2899 10323 2898 10325 2899 10327 2898 10328
      2900 10328 2901 10332 2903 10331 2902 10334
      2904 10333 2902 10336 2904 10343 2912 10351
      2939 10321 2918 10299 2910 10303 2909 10307
      2905 10309 2906 10310 2899 10311 2897 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 226DEG 21KT 2905 10340

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

24
Special weather statement, Sep 30, 3:37 PM CDT, 3 hours 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
337 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

TXZ277>279-302130-
Central Brewster County TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
337 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Pecos
and northwestern Brewster Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Marathon, or 15 miles east of Alpine, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alpine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3032 10367 3064 10340 3038 10303 3016 10341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 226DEG 16KT 3034 10340

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

24
Special weather statement, Sep 30, 4:14 PM CDT, 2 hours 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
414 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

TXZ063-070-302200-
Reagan TX-Glasscock TX-
414 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Glasscock and northeastern Reagan Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Garden City, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Glasscock and northeastern Reagan Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
western Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3159 10135 3175 10146 3183 10127 3157 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 279DEG 5KT 3170 10136

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
Special weather statement, Sep 30, 4:34 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
434 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

TXZ279-282-302215-
Central Brewster County TX-Lower Brewster County TX-
434 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Pecos and
central Brewster Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 434 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Marathon, or 34 miles southeast of Alpine, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Pecos and
central Brewster Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2989 10330 3017 10335 3019 10275 3017 10274
      2995 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 244DEG 23KT 3005 10321

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

87
Special weather statement, Sep 30, 5:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
521 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

TXZ075-082-302300-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-
521 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pecos
and northeastern Terrell Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Sheffield, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sheffield.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 324 and 327.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3052 10168 3047 10169 3046 10170 3047 10173
      3044 10172 3043 10173 3050 10208 3067 10207
      3076 10182 3070 10181 3068 10178 3065 10177
      3065 10171 3062 10166 3059 10166 3055 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 258DEG 10KT 3058 10200

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
Special weather statement, Sep 30, 6:41 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
641 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

TXZ082-010015-
Terrell TX-
641 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Terrell
County through 715 PM CDT...

At 640 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dryden, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dryden, Terrell County Gas Plant and Terrell County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3034 10168 3035 10170 3033 10174 3029 10176
      2997 10176 2994 10233 3017 10235 3047 10169
      3042 10174 3040 10170 3039 10169 3038 10170
      3037 10168
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 253DEG 42KT 3011 10207

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 30, 10:17 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFGaines43 min
Sep 30, 10:33 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFAndrews42 min
Sep 30, 10:51 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFAndrews24 min
Sep 30, 11:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFAndrews, Dawson, Gaines, Martin47 min
Sep 30, 12:09 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFMartin36 min
Sep 30, 12:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFHoward, Martin53 min
Sep 30, 1:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFHoward, Mitchell46 min
Sep 30, 1:43 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFJeff Davis47 min
Sep 30, 1:46 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAF44 min
Sep 30, 1:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFJeff Davis, Presidio52 min
Sep 30, 1:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFBorden, Howard, Mitchell, Scurry61 min
Sep 30, 2:29 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFPecos46 min
Sep 30, 2:46 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFJeff Davis44 min
Sep 30, 2:50 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFBrewster40 min
Sep 30, 2:54 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFHoward, Mitchell3 hr
Sep 30, 3:09 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFMitchell, Scurry3 hr
Sep 30, 3:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFPecos, Terrell63 min
Sep 30, 3:14 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFJeff Davis3 hr
Sep 30, 3:28 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAF47 min
Sep 30, 3:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFBrewster44 min
Sep 30, 3:37 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAF53 min
Sep 30, 4:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFBrewster, Pecos57 min
Sep 30, 4:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFPecos, Terrell65 min
Sep 30, 4:14 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFGlasscock46 min
Sep 30, 4:34 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFBrewster41 min
Sep 30, 4:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFBrewster, Pecos, Terrell52 min
Sep 30, 4:56 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFPecos, Terrell3 hr
Sep 30, 5:21 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFTerrell39 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Texas, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.