Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
239 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

TSRA is possible across much of the area, the highest confidence
occurring around KFST this afternoon. Some hi-res models have
storms developing around KMAF but there are a few models keeping
TSRA out of the KMAF area. Therefore, VCTS was added at this time
but AMDs will be made as storms develop. TS can cause winds to be
gusty, variable, and TEMPO reduce visibilities. Winds will remain
out of the south, tonight will breezy at KMAF & possibly KINK.
VFR conditions are likely to persist for the next 24 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

An upper lvl trough over Western CONUS will continue to progress
eastward into this weekend. Instablilty has increased as
temperatures have cooled aloft. This morning's sounding measured
surface CAPE of 2500 j/kg with a convective temp of 90. Therefore,
thunderstorms are likely this afternoon as result of daytime
heating, orographic ascent (over the mountain areas), and the
progression of the aforementioned trough. Hi-Res models have an axis
of precip developing from the Davis Mountains into the eastern
Permian Basin. PWATs are sitting around 1.52 inches promoting the
potential for localized flooding. Storms could become strong to sub-
severe due to higher CAPE values, in addition an inverted V sounding
is likely to promote gusty winds and down bursts. A LLJ will develop
later tonight across the Eastern Permian Basin bringing breezy
conditions to the area. Thunderstorms are set to develop tomorrow
afternoon with the majority of the precip being confined to the
Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains. Some storms could develop in the
Permian Basin as well with the main concerns being gusty erratic
winds, frequent lightning, small hail, and heavy rain.
Temperatures will sit in the low 90s this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon with upper 90s to 100s along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through  Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

The shortwave trough that was centered over the Central Rockies
Friday will eject northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Saturday. A second shortwave trough will begin to enter the Pacific
Northwest. Broad troughing will remain to our northwest and a weak
perturbation within this may lead to some early days showers and
thunderstorms across the Highway 57 corridor. Saturday's high
temperatures will remain near average with upper 80s to low 90s in
most locations. Thunderstorms will remain possible during the
afternoon with broad troughing in place, especially over the the
higher terrain. Thunderstorms may reach into the plains along
outflow later in the afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms will
wane by evening Saturday. Saturday night low temperatures will
remain mild with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. By
Sunday, the second shortwave trough will eject across the Central
Rockies. At the same time, upper level ridging will build across the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This ridging will build in from the east
into our region. Afternoon thunderstorm chances will end outside of
a stray thunderstorm over the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico
in response to this. High temperature will remain more seasonal as
the ridge builds. Low temperatures will be a bit lower than Saturday
as slightly drier air returns to the region. Persistence will be the
name of the game through the beginning of next week with little
change in the overall weather pattern. The next chance of
precipitation will not come until the end of next week when a trough
enters the Intermountain West.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  10
Carlsbad                 69  92  67  91 /  10  20  10  30
Dryden                   74  95  73  95 /  20  30  10  10
Fort Stockton            71  92  69  91 /  30  50  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           65  83  64  82 /  10  20  10  40
Hobbs                    68  92  67  90 /  10  20  10  20
Marfa                    62  84  61  86 /  50  70  40  30
Midland Intl Airport     72  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  10
Odessa                   73  92  72  93 /  20  30  20  10
Wink                     72  94  71  94 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...89

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
230 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-201930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
230 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 /130 PM MDT Thu Aug 19 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through the
early evening hours, especially over the Davis Mountains and Lower
Trans Pecos, extending into the southern half of the Permian Basin.
Any storms that do develop may be accompanied by frequent lightning,
gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall may result in
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible across portions of the
region through Saturday. Some storms may produce heavy rainfall
resulting in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
415 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

TXZ277-278-192200-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-Davis Mountains TX-
415 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Jeff
Davis County through 500 PM CDT...

At 415 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Davis Mountains State Park, or over Fort Davis, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Davis, McDonald Observatory, Davis Mountains State Park, Black
Mountain, Star Mountain, Buffalo Trail Scout Camp, Indian Lodge and
Fort Davis National Historical Site.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3051 10396 3062 10408 3093 10387 3060 10370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 252DEG 5KT 3063 10391

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

88

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
421 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

TXZ061-192200-
Ector TX-
421 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Ector County
through 500 PM CDT...

At 421 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
West Odessa, or 13 miles west of Odessa, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Odessa, West Odessa, Odessa Schlemeyer Field and Penwell.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 100 and 108.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 10256 3182 10272 3200 10252 3194 10235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 200DEG 5KT 3181 10258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

88

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
506 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

TXZ279-280-192230-
Central Brewster County TX-Chisos Basin TX-
506 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Brewster County through 530 PM CDT...

At 506 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chisos Basin, or 8 miles southwest of Panther Junction. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Big Bend National Park and Chisos Basin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2932 10345 2932 10344 2938 10327 2924 10315
      2912 10329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 058DEG 4KT 2926 10331

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

88

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
514 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

TXZ276-277-192245-
Marfa Plateau TX-Davis Mountains TX-
514 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Jeff
Davis and north central Presidio Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 514 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Valentine, or 31 miles northwest of Marfa, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Valentine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 10459 3070 10439 3047 10428 3041 10459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 343DEG 9KT 3056 10447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

88

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             1 NW WEST ODESSA        31.85N 102.51W
08/19/2021  E1.00 INCH       Ector              TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE AND REPORT OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN
            WEST ODESSA.

&&

DAVID.MUNYAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

TXZ068-069-075-192330-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-Upton TX-
544 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Pecos,
southeastern Crane and southwestern Upton Counties through 630 PM
CDT...

At 544 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southwest of McCamey, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McCamey, Upton County Airport, Bakersfield and Girvin.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 282 and 302.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Midland.

&&

LAT...LON 3109 10237 3108 10237 3103 10229 3104 10225
      3103 10221 3100 10219 3101 10218 3099 10209
      3100 10205 3100 10203 3098 10202 3079 10238
      3079 10253 3121 10247 3108 10198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 188DEG 26KT 3090 10240

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

44