Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
generally range from the southeast to the southwest. Winds will
become elevated with gusts around 00z for MAF and FST and will
decrease around 09z. There is a slight chance for TSRA for FST,
PEQ, and CNM this afternoon and evening but generally expect
storms to remain west of the terminals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

An upper level ridge is over New Mexico and Texas with northwest
upper winds over the area. Very moist air is present with dewpoints
in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the eastern Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos. Dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s further west.
Showers and thunderstorms are already developing in and around the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue to develop this afternoon and evening from
Southeast New Mexico south to the Big Bend. The greatest threats
with these storms will be heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning. Temperatures today will be hot with highs in the upper
90s and triple digits across most of the area. Upper ridging will
remain across the region on Tuesday with temperatures a little
cooler than today. Rain and storm chances will extend further east
on Tuesday with portions of the western Permian Basin possibly being
impacted by convection. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night
will be in the 60s and 70s with high moisture across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through  Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

Not many changes to the extended, as the trend remains cooler and
wetter.  Wednesday morning, upper-level ridging will extend from
NorCal down through Texas and through the Gulf Coast states.  This
feature will weaken over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico through
the weekend as the ridge develops west and north, re-centering over
the SW CONUS.  Thicknesses will diminish as a result, w/highs
dropping to at or below normal by around midweek, where they'll stay
through the end of this forecast.  W/return flow keeping Gulf
moisture in place, overnight lows will remain above-normal, although
model trends suggest they could drop a degree or two over the next
week as well.

Regarding rain chances, the general pattern each day has been
orographic development each afternoon over the higher terrain, and
we see no reason why this won't continue, at least through Friday,
and NBM handles this reasonably well.  This weekend, as the ridge
redevelops west and north, north flow aloft will develop over the
region, allowing rain chances to increase farther east.  All models
show decent height falls Saturday afternoon though the extended to
help things along.  It would be nice to get some decent QPE out of
this activity, but ensembles show normal to below-normal PWATs
through the extended. The non-summer continues :(.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  96  72  94 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                 73  97  71  93 /  20  30  30  20
Dryden                   74  97  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            73  98  71  94 /  10  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           71  89  67  84 /  30  40  30  30
Hobbs                    70  96  70  91 /  10  20  20  20
Marfa                    64  91  63  86 /  30  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport     73  96  72  93 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   73  97  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     75 100  74  96 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...80
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...80

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-101645-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 /1045 AM MDT Mon Aug 9 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly west of
the Pecos.  Any storms that do develop will be accompanied by
frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and brief, heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
329 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

TXZ274-092115-
Reeves County Plains TX-
329 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Reeves
County through 415 PM CDT...

At 329 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Toyah. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toyah.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 15 and 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3123 10387 3140 10407 3156 10377 3128 10362
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 244DEG 4KT 3135 10384

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
346 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

TXZ075-274-092130-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
346 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Pecos
and southeastern Reeves Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles west of Fort Stockton, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Firestone Test Track.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 231 and 246.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 10318 3079 10338 3112 10332 3104 10302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 197DEG 13KT 3084 10326

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
429 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

TXZ067-274-092215-
Ward TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
429 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Reeves and
west central Ward Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles southeast of Pecos, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pecos, Barstow, Toyah Lake, Pecos Municipal Airport and B F Goodrich
Testing Track.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 40 and 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 10325 3110 10341 3122 10358 3148 10350
      3148 10332
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 130DEG 8KT 3117 10334

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

TXZ059-060-067-092245-
Loving TX-Ward TX-Winkler TX-
502 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Reeves,
northern Ward, southwestern Winkler and southeastern Loving Counties
through 545 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Barstow, or 14 miles east of Pecos, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Thorntonville, Pyote and Wickett.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 51 and 77.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 10333 3156 10291 3138 10322 3139 10325
      3143 10326 3141 10328 3142 10331 3152 10343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 216DEG 20KT 3146 10326

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

87