Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

TSRA continue across the west, with a few storms in the vicinity
of KCNM. Storms look to mostly dissipate around 04z. No other
terminals are likely to be impacted. SE winds will remain gusty
until 04z at KMAF and KINK while remaining gusty until 08z at KPEQ
and KFST. A line of storms pushing down from the N around 09z may
cause a wind shift at the SE New Mexico terminals along with some
lower CIGS at KHOB, but timing and location are uncertain so have
kept out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Today's PoPs will be focused INVOF the mtns and with a ne steering
flow there will be little chance for the storms in the PB. By Sun AM
a shrtwv trof will be located near NE NM/TX PH with what will
probably be a large precip shield in that area as well. As said
shrtwv trof drifts s later in the morning and during the day Sunday
that precip will dissipate with showers/storms possible nearing
Hobbs area. However there is likely to be an assocd outflow boundary
that will eventually stretch across or near the nrn CWFA. This
boundary could be enough of a focus for a few storms, still the
better PoPs will be across the mtns, but only isold-scattered. A few
showers/storms may linger into Mon AM. There are narrow temperature
spreads in NBM data for lows Sun AM and Mon AM and for highs Sun PM,
however some of the MOS still is several degrees warmer and if the
low dewpoints that GFS depicts materialize it could be warmer than
NBM, especially with heights slightly higher than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through  Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

A broad upper ridge will be centered over the Rocky Mountains on
Monday with the backside of the ridge extending into West Texas.
Upper disturbances on the backside of the upper ridge will move over
the area providing lift. Low-level moisture will be high across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s
with easterly winds. This will allow for showers and thunderstorms
to develop across parts of the area. Temperatures on Monday will
mostly be in the 90s.

The upper ridge weakens over West Texas and an upper low begins to
move over the area on Tuesday. This upper pattern along with high
moisture will allow for increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures on Tuesday will decrease into the 80s
across most of the Permian Basin as a front moves into the region.
Rain and storm chances will continue for Wednesday, especially
across the Lower Trans Pecos which will be closest to the upper low.
Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the 80s across most
of the area. Rain chances will begin to decrease across the area on
Thursday as the upper ridge begins to move back over the region.
This trend continues into Friday as temperatures warm back up into
the 90s. Rain and storm chances decrease even more next Saturday
with temperatures continuing to warm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  93  72  92 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                 72  94  71  94 /  10  20  10  20
Dryden                   73  94  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            71  94  71  95 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           68  88  68  87 /  20  20  10  20
Hobbs                    70  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  20
Marfa                    62  89  63  88 /  20  30  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     72  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   72  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     73  96  73  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...88

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
528 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-181030-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
528 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 /428 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible over southeast New Mexico this afternoon with
gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
536 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

NMZ029-180000-
Northern Lea County NM-
536 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL LEA COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM MDT...

At 536 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles northeast of Maljamar, or 17 miles northwest of Lovington. This
storm was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Lea
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 10354 3300 10354 3300 10376 3321 10376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 133DEG 0KT 3306 10362

10