Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Prevailing VFR through the period. LLJ weakening with sporadic
gusts at the eastern terminals. Winds will remain >12kts for KMAF
through the PM hrs, becoming gusty again overnight due to
resurgence of LLJ. Sct CU for all but KMAF with SChc TS over SE
NM sites late afternoon, but probability too low for prevailing,
so will monitor for AMD potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Temps will continue to rise through the afternoon with thermal ridge
axis focused over El Paso area up through south-central NM. 850mb
temps with the ambient sunshine will support triple-digit heat
across the Pecos River and Rio Grande Valleys with 90s elsewhere.
Seeing a little bit of a cumulus field percolating over Eddy Co at
this hour, as well as the higher terrain in the Davis'. Still not a
huge thunderstorm threat today, but a few storms will likely fire in
the next few hrs across the high terrain of the aforementioned
areas, slowly pivoting their way east on the light W/SW flow aloft.
Sunset will help bring an end to the storm threat with shear
profiles still pretty meager under the guide of the ridge in place.

We'll see a slight shift tomorrow as thermal ridge axis pokes a
touch further to the east with temps similar to today, but a few
degrees hotter. The upper ridge will break down over West Texas in
conjunction with a lee-side trough kicking through the Central
plains during the afternoon. An uptick in localized shear in tandem
with a protruding dryline out west will produce a bit more flare on
the convective side of the forecast. Davis Mtns will be the first to
show initiation during the afternoon time frame, but more storms
will fire along the dryline, leading to an encompassing of Upper-
Trans Pecos and the NW Permian. Upscale growth of storms will likely
transpire off the Caprock to the NW of the forecast area. By
evening, convection from the south will peter off, but remnant
outflows could bring some activity into the I-20 corridor near
KMAF/ODO late-afternoon. The northern Permian Basin will have the
greater risk of storm impact, including a marginal severe for wind
and hail, with wind the dominant threat thanks to high convective
bases displayed by inverted-V soundings on guidance. Expansion of
marginal severe possible to the south, but likely along the dry line
and not widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through  Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Hot temperatures will give way to cooler and much wetter conditions
as we head into the weekend and next week. An overall pattern shift
to an upper trough over the Rockies and Central Plains will bring
another cold front into the region. This front will enter the TX
Panhandle early Saturday with storms developing along the boundary
by afternoon near LUB. These storms will help progress the front
south into the northern Permian Basin and portions of SE NM
Saturday evening/night. Severe storms will be possible given an
unstable atmosphere and moderate shear. There are a few models
showing storms growing upscale into an MCS which could lead to a
higher damaging wind threat. We will know more as we get closer to
the weekend so stay tuned!

The upper trough will continue to dig over the area Sunday with the
cold front slowly moving south. Sunday could be very active across
our area with strong storms possible, but more likely will be the
heavy rain threat. It's a little too far out to pinpoint exact
location of the heaviest rain, but models are currently showing the
area from LUB to MAF in the bullseye. With weak upper flow storms
will be slow moving and high moisture values will create very
efficient rain producers. We have had a few weeks to dry out since
our last wet period, but given this pattern we could definitely see
some flash flooding. The front and widespread rain should keep
temperatures below normal beginning Sunday. These temperatures could
hang around awhile as general troughing remains over the central
U.S. Scattered showers and storms look possible much of next week
which is a nice change from the hot, dry weather we are seeing
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  99  75  93 /   0  20  20  20
Carlsbad                 73 104  72  97 /  20  10  10  20
Dryden                   75  99  74  96 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            74 101  74  99 /  10  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass           72  97  72  92 /  20  10  10  20
Hobbs                    71  99  71  92 /  20  20  20  30
Marfa                    64  94  64  93 /  20  40  20  30
Midland Intl Airport     74  98  74  95 /   0  20  20  20
Odessa                   75  98  74  94 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                     76 103  75 100 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...87

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
203 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-251915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
203 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 /103 PM MDT Thu Jun 24 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the Davis, Delaware,
and Guadalupe Mountains as well as portions of Southeast New Mexico
and Culberson County plains this afternoon and evening until around
1 AM. Gusty and erratic winds and lightning will be the main
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Potential for high gap winds for Guadalupe Pass on Sunday through
Tuesday.

Widespread rainfall on Saturday with a few strong to severe storms
could allow for potential flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
406 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

TXZ277>279-242130-
Central Brewster County TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
406 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BREWSTER AND
NORTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 405 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Alpine, moving southeast at 5 mph. This storm may
move across State Hwy 118.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Brewster and northeastern Presidio Counties.

LAT...LON 3021 10382 3035 10368 3024 10346 3004 10367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 311DEG 5KT 3024 10369