Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...

KMAF 12Z RAOB shows a cap similar to 24 hours ago, but mesoanalysis
shows it eroding NW-SE, despite a subtropical fetch of hi-lvl
moisture retarding diurnal heating.  Vis sat imagery shows cu
developing Davis Mtns/Stockton Plateau, w/the HRRR developing the
Pecos County supercell after 19Z.  Sfc obs at 18Z show the dryline
extending from KHOB to KPRS, w/a dewpoint at KMAF of 66F.  After the
Pecos Co. supercell develops, other convection is expected to
initiate on the dryline north and south.  Steep mid-lvl lapse rates
in excess of 7C/km will favor large hail, and damaging winds will be
possible as well.  This activity could merge w/a MCS expected to
develop over OK and move southward overnight, but this looks to
happen just NE of the CWA.

Friday, easterly upslope flow will drive the dryline into far west
Texas, w/initiation farther west over the higher terrain than today.
A cold front will approach from the north, although the NAM has
slowed it somewhat from previous runs.  Regardless, the CWA will
spend the day in the warm sector, w/mlcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg
east of the dryline.  Steep mid-lvl lapse rates and dcapes also in
excess of 2500 J/kg on the higher terrain will again favor big hail
and damaging winds for much of the area.  Both the NAM and GFS are
similar in developing a MCS and clipping the NE zones Friday night.

Saturday, the dryline remains west of the area, and will continue to
be the focus for severe activity during the afternoon and evening,
although models suggest activity will not be as widespread as
today/Friday.

Sunday, the west coast upper trough will dig to Baja del Norte/NW
Sonora, and send a strong shortwave through West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico w/long range models suggesting the best chances of rain
this forecast, especially Sunday night.  Of course, severe wx
remains a possibility.

For the rest of the work week, the trough opens and parks over
northern Mexico, sending plenty of disturbances through SW flow
aloft for at least isolated chances of convection daily.  We need to
cram in as much rain as possible this week and next, as the
extended GFS hints at the arrival of the summertime ridge.

For temperatures, it looks like we'll finish the month w/out KMAF
reaching triple digits.  Temps look to stay well-below normal into
the extended, and highs may struggle to get out of the 70s NE zones
Mon/Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  84  63  81 /  40  40  50  20
Carlsbad                       66  92  65  85 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         71  89  69  88 /  40  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  68  91  66  88 /  30  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  89  60  84 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          64  83  61  80 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                          60  93  60  89 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           66  87  63  83 /  30  40  40  20
Odessa                         66  87  64  83 /  20  40  40  20
Wink                           66  93  65  88 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

89/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1135 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-281645-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1135 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021 /1035 AM MDT Thu May 27 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.  Any storms
that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small
hail, gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall.  There is an enhanced
risk of severe storms, mainly over the Western Low Rolling Plains,
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated
tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms Friday through Monday.  Any
severe storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail
and/or damaging winds and/or an isolated tornado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
316 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

TXZ075-272045-
Pecos TX-
316 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

At 316 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 26
miles southeast of Fort Stockton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Pecos
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 10255 3068 10269 3087 10249 3065 10218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 226DEG 18KT 3066 10254

88