Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Latest models still develop MVFR cigs KMAF overnight. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail. Hi-res models suggest convection will
stay clear of terminals, at least in the short term. Return flow
will dominate next 24 hours, remaining elevated overnight due to a
40+kt LLJ. A widespread cu field is anticipated Monday afternoon,
w/bases 4.5-8 kft AGL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Look for more storms today and much of the week ahead as a
persistent, active weather pattern remains in place.

A large scale, deep upper trough remains situated across the West,
but will finally lift into the Plains today. As this happens, large-
scale forcing will shift east into areas of rich low level moisture.
We are towering CU along and west of the Pecos River currently
with temperatures heating well into the 80's. Instability is
increasing with CAPE values already around 2000 J/kg. We are
lacking strong shear, but will likely still support some
organization of convection as it forms off the dryline this
afternoon. Similar to yesterday we will likely see a few severe
storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. The highest
coverage of storms today look to be west of the Permian Basin and
into the higher terrain. Southwesterly flow aloft remains across
the area into this week with periodic shortwaves enhancing lift
along the dryline. While it is hard to time these waves until they
get closer, it appears we will see at least some storms in our
area everyday this week. Models are suggesting one of these waves
to traverse the area Monday afternoon with the high coverage of
storms for our region. A large Marginal risk for severe is already
in place. On a good note, cooler mid level temperatures will keep
highs generally below normal to start the week.

As we head toward midweek, temperatures warm back to or slightly
above normal for late May as storm coverage decreases. Another upper
trough approaches the area late in the week with better rain chances
and severe storms back in the forecast. If you have plans for the
Memorial Day weekend it looks warm with a chance for storms almost
anywhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  82  64  86 /  10  30  40  20
Carlsbad                       63  87  60  93 /  30  50  30  10
Dryden                         67  87  68  91 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  65  86  64  92 /  40  40  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 61  83  60  87 /  20  40  20  10
Hobbs                          62  82  60  89 /  40  50  40  10
Marfa                          54  85  53  88 /  60  50  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           65  84  64  89 /  20  40  40  20
Odessa                         65  83  64  89 /  20  40  40  20
Wink                           66  88  64  93 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

44/89/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
158 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-241900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
158 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 /1258 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, particularly across Southeast New Mexico and portions of
West Texas including the Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend.
Threats primarily include large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Monday and Tuesday.
Any severe storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail
and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
737 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

TXZ276-279-281-240115-
Central Brewster County TX-Presidio Valley TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
737 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BREWSTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Big Bend Ranch State Park, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Casa Piedra.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2968 10430 3005 10404 2985 10351 2950 10402
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 219DEG 18KT 2971 10416

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
744 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

TXZ075-274-277-278-240130-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
744 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS...NORTHERN
BREWSTER...SOUTHWESTERN REEVES...NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 743 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 9
miles south of Balmorhea Lake, or 21 miles northeast of Fort Davis,
moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible
with heavy localized rainfall.

Locations impacted include...
Balmorhea, Balmorhea Lake, Balmorhea State Park, Saragosa, Verhalen,
Star Mountain, Toyahvale and Buffalo Trail Scout Camp.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 183 and 232.
 Interstate 20 between mile markers 0 and 8.

LAT...LON 3055 10365 3079 10405 3117 10416 3118 10337
      3070 10327
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 261DEG 18KT 3084 10367

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
746 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

TXZ272-276>278-240130-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-Davis Mountains TX-
746 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER...JEFF
DAVIS...NORTHEASTERN PRESIDIO AND SOUTHERN CULBERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 745 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 12
miles south of Kent, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marfa, Kent, Fort Davis, Valentine, Bloys Camp, Plateau, Davis
Mountains State Park, McDonald Observatory, Camp Mitre Peak, Marfa
Municipal Airport, Alpine-Casparis Municipal Airport, Black Mountain,
Paisano Pass, Indian Lodge and Fort Davis National Historical Site.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 147 and 183.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3006 10405 3052 10451 3103 10478 3119 10413
      3079 10403 3051 10355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 230DEG 21KT 3089 10423

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
803 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

NMZ027-028-TXZ059-273-274-240145-
Eddy County Plains NM-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County NM-
Loving TX-Eastern Culberson County TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
803 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDDY...NORTHWESTERN
REEVES...NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON AND NORTHWESTERN LOVING COUNTIES
UNTIL 845 PM CDT/745 PM MDT/...

At 802 PM CDT/702 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms over Loving, or 11 miles southeast of Carlsbad, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Loving, Red Bluff Reservoir, Malaga, Orla, Carlsbad Caverns
National Park, Whites City, Otis, Red Bluff and Cavern City Air
Terminal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3166 10456 3211 10466 3250 10394 3173 10370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 229DEG 17KT 3227 10409

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
815 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

TXZ276-277-279-281-240200-
Central Brewster County TX-Presidio Valley TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
815 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BREWSTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 815 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 12
miles northeast of Big Bend Ranch State Park, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Presidio, Big Bend Ranch State Park, Shafter, Casa Piedra, Redford
and Presidio Lely International Airport.

LAT...LON 2937 10411 2940 10417 2943 10418 2946 10422
      2949 10421 2948 10423 2952 10426 2952 10431
      2953 10432 2952 10434 2963 10448 2964 10451
      3012 10400 2974 10333 2934 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 200DEG 23KT 2966 10400

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
722 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

NMZ028-033-240200-
Eddy County Plains NM-Central Lea County NM-
722 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EDDY AND
SOUTHWESTERN LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

At 722 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Carlsbad North, or 10 miles east of Carlsbad, moving
north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Eddy
and southwestern Lea Counties.

LAT...LON 3234 10399 3238 10418 3280 10408 3267 10370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 200DEG 23KT 3243 10406

89