Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021

.DISCUSSION...

See the 00z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Possible thunderstorms with gusty erratic winds, lightning, and
larger hail for KCNM, KPEQ, and KHOB this afternoon. Winds will
remain elevated out of the southeast with gusts around 20-25kts
tonight. A low cloud deck will move into the area early tomorrow
morning lowering CIGs to MVFR and maybe temporary IFR conditions.
AMDs will be made as storms develop this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Today have a weak upper ridge over the area as a cut off low
wobbles across NV.  This low will move into ID Saturday with the srn
part of it lifting northward across WY and into MT Sunday.  This
pattern will keep the region in SW flow aloft that can carry
shortwaves into the area.  Also do have a tropical low off the S TX
coast that should move ashore Saturday.  This low looks to stay east
of the area as it moves north and weakens eventually getting swept
up in the westerlies.  On Monday the northern low will move into
Canada as a trough axis extends southward across the Western US.
Upper ridge reforms over the region by midweek.

This afternoon have a leeside trough extending down from CO across
our western CWA with a gusty SE wind east of it. Temperatures are
climbing today and should reach near normal around 90 degrees for
the Permian Basin... 90s for SE NM and the Trans Pecos... and 100+
along the Rio Grande.  Saturday and Monday should be a few degrees
cooler due to increased cloud cover and higher rain chances.  Temps
increase mid week under the ridge.

As far as storms SWODY1 has a marginal risk extending down into SE
NM... should not see much out there this afternoon but model qpf
does develop precip over Eddy and Lea tonight.  SWODY2 has a slight
risk from SE NM down into Brewster... added mention of severe to
grids/zones. Could also see locally heavy rain with these storms as
models show PW in the 1 to 1.3 inch range over the West on Saturday
and when combined with SE upslope flow and mountains terrain could
lead to flash flooding... will include in the HWO.  Also have a
Marginal risk for large part of the area DY3 and carrying high
pops over the west Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances decrease
after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  65  83  64 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       94  64  85  63 /  20  30  30  50
Dryden                         88  69  88  68 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  66  87  65 /   0  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 88  62  82  58 /  10  20  30  50
Hobbs                          91  62  82  60 /  10  20  20  30
Marfa                          92  57  85  52 /  10  10  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           91  65  85  64 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         92  65  86  65 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           95  68  88  65 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

89/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-221915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
207 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021 /107 PM MDT Fri May 21 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible over Southeast New
Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos, and far West Texas. A few storms may
be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
and evening across Southeast New Mexico, the western Permian
Basin, and southward to the Rio Grande. Any severe storms that do
develop may be accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, and
localized flash flooding.

There is another chance of severe thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday
across portions of the area. Large hail, damaging winds, and
localized flash flooding will be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021

NMZ028-033-034-TXZ059-273-274-220015-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Central Lea County NM-
Loving TX-Eastern Culberson County TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
630 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN EDDY...SOUTHWESTERN
LEA...NORTHWESTERN REEVES...NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON AND NORTHWESTERN
LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT/615 PM MDT/...

At 629 PM CDT/529 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms 8 miles southeast of Malaga, or 23 miles southeast of
Carlsbad, moving north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Loving, Maljamar, Red Bluff Reservoir, Malaga, Lea County Zip
Franklin Memorial Airport, Halfway, Loco Hills and Red Bluff.

LAT...LON 3184 10373 3190 10419 3293 10408 3293 10343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 197DEG 17KT 3216 10396

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM MDT Fri May 21 2021

NMZ029-033-220115-
Northern Lea County NM-Central Lea County NM-
631 PM MDT Fri May 21 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
MDT...

At 631 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 15
miles south of Caprock, or 20 miles west of Tatum, moving northeast
at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tatum, Caprock, McDonald, Maljamar, Crossroads and Tatum Airport.

LAT...LON 3342 10305 3261 10379 3297 10378 3297 10376
      3340 10377 3340 10372 3357 10372 3357 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 217DEG 38KT 3317 10366

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
741 PM MDT Fri May 21 2021

NMZ029-220230-
Northern Lea County NM-
741 PM MDT Fri May 21 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM MDT...

At 741 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tatum, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tatum, McDonald, Crossroads, Gladiola and Tatum Airport.

LAT...LON 3306 10307 3306 10329 3340 10372 3357 10372
      3357 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 219DEG 29KT 3323 10335

89