Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
204 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Weak upper ridge over the area this morning giving way to cut off
low approaching from the west.  The low was over AZ at 12z and will
be moving into NM this evening and lift to the CO/NM border by
Tuesday morning.  This low will slowly wobble east Tuesday opening
up into a trough as it moves over the Panhandle Wednesday.  As this
happens the next upper low will move over WA and start working down
the West Coast reaching CA Thursday as high pressure returns to W TX
and SE NM.  This low will wobble across the Great Basin Thursday
through Saturday before weakening and getting pulled NE.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tuesday in the 80s with
some 90s closer to the Rio Grande as a weak front sags into the area
Tuesday.  Readings will warm back to near normal Wednesday and
Thursday then decrease slowly through the weekend.

Looking at the potential for severe wx this afternoon and tonight.
SWODY1 has a moderate risk for most of the Northern and part of the
Central Permian Basin.  No storms expected across the west.
Dryline expected to set up this afternoon with storms developing on
it.  Have all the ingredients for severe wx... lots of
boundaries...high cape over 3000J... directional and speeds shear...
daytime heating... and steep lapse rates.  Very large hail will be
the main concern with these storms but damaging wind and a few
tornadoes possible.  Also may see locally heavy rain... MAF 12z
sounding had PW over an inch with dewpts into the mid 60s pushing
into the region. More severe wx possible this coming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  82  60  87 /  70  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       55  85  56  89 /  10   0  10   0
Dryden                         66  94  67  89 /  40  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  61  88  61  89 /  40   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  79  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  82  55  85 /  30  10  10  10
Marfa                          48  81  47  85 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  85  60  88 /  50  10  10  10
Odessa                         60  85  60  89 /  40  10  10  10
Wink                           58  88  58  91 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

80/72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
208 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-181915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
208 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 /108 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe storms are expected this afternoon through tonight. The main
threats will be damaging winds and large to very large hail,
although a tornado or two may also be possible. Heavy rainfall will
be possible with these storms and localized flooding may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe storms are expected through Tuesday morning with the
potential for very large hail across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos. Localized flooding may be possible, along with a tornado
or two and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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