Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Currently have sct TSRA across region with all terminals under at
least VCTS until b/w 02-05z this evening. TS will move east with
remnant OVC prevailing across sites, but expect low cigs to
develop areawide with MVFR expected overnight into the AM before
clearing by 16z tomorrow. Borderline IFR possible at KHOB/KMAF by
12z as some guidance suggests, but will assess as clouds develop.
Gusty SW winds tomorrow PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 151 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over California and Nevada with westerly
flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A dryline is present
across the area this afternoon with dewpoints climbing into the
60s across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. CAPE values
east of the dryline will generally be 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg with 0
to 6 km bulk shear values from 35 to 45 kts. CAPE and shear values
are expected to be highest across Pecos, Terrell, and Brewster
Counties. Mid-level lapse rates will generally be marginal
according to the NAM12. Omega values will be enhanced across
portions of the area this afternoon into tonight as upper level
shortwaves move overhead. Severe thunderstorms are possible, given
these conditions, this afternoon into tonight across most of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds but an isolated tornado or two is
possible.

The upper low moves over Southern California/Southern Nevada on
Sunday with another dryline across West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico. The CAPE and shear values are expected to be less tomorrow
than today but strong to severe storms will still be possible.
Temperatures are expected to warm up on Sunday into the 80s and 90s,
especially west of the dryline. The previously mentioned upper low
moves over the Four Corners region on Monday with the dryline
expected to be across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. The upper low/trough begins to move over the region on
Tuesday with a dryline present and a cold front moving southward
into the area during the morning. Severe storms will be possible
along the cold front and dryline intersection. Most of the rain and
storms should be east of the area on Wednesday with temperatures
generally in the 80s and 90s. Similar conditions are expected on
Thursday as a big upper trough moves over the west coast. Showers
and thunderstorms chances will increase on Friday as the upper
trough to the west begins to move/expand eastward. This same trend
will continue into next Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and storms are developing in the Guadalupe Mountains and
will add fuel moisture. Where and how much rain will be important
since tomorrow relative humidities bottom out into the single digits
and winds increase to 20 to 30 mph. ERC values are already below the
50th percentile and any additional rain may drop the ERCs further so
despite dangerous weather conditions, the overall fire danger threat
may be reduced. Do not see a Red Flag Warning being needed but a
Fire Danger Statement may be warranted for Sunday and perhaps again
on Monday when similar conditions are expected. Will let the
midnight shift make the final assessment on this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  87  66  89 /  50  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       59  91  58  89 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         65  92  68  94 /  50  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  63  92  64  93 /  50  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  84  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  88  59  87 /  30   0   0   0
Marfa                          52  87  49  87 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  89  65  90 /  50  10  10  10
Odessa                         63  89  65  91 /  50  10  10  10
Wink                           62  95  60  94 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

87

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
205 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-161915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
205 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021 /105 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms will be possible across much of the area
this afternoon and evening with the best chances across the Northern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. A tornado may also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday across
the eastern most portion of the Permian Basin.

Elevated fire weather conditions may exist across the west on Sunday
and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
802 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ045-046-050-160145-
Dawson TX-Andrews TX-Gaines TX-
802 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ANDREWS...EASTERN
GAINES AND WEST CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 802 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southeast of Gaines County Airport, or 18 miles northeast of
Andrews, moving north at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McKenzie Lake and Punkin Center.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3241 10233 3251 10248 3265 10237 3296 10233
      3281 10193
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 201DEG 25KT 3255 10238

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
803 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ045-160115-
Gaines TX-
803 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GAINES COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM CDT...

At 803 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles west of Denver City to 7 miles
southeast of Nadine. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Paynes Corner and Higginbotham.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3295 10268 3253 10269 3254 10306 3296 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 223DEG 40KT 3294 10304 3253 10305

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
816 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ045-050-160145-
Andrews TX-Gaines TX-
816 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL ANDREWS AND GAINES
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 815 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking scattered strong
thunderstorms over Gaines County, moving east at 10 to 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seminole, Seagraves, Seagraves Airport, Gaines County Airport, Loop,
Paynes Corner, Higginbotham and Gaines County Park.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3296 10233 3265 10237 3246 10252 3253 10305
      3296 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 261DEG 7KT 3287 10253

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
820 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ067>069-075-160200-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-Upton TX-Ward TX-
820 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...
SOUTHEASTERN WARD...SOUTHERN CRANE AND SOUTHWESTERN UPTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 819 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Grandfalls, or 22 miles southwest of Crane, moving
east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crane, McCamey, Imperial Reservoir, Crane County Airport, Upton
County Airport, Imperial, King Mountain and Cordona Lake.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western and southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3108 10286 3132 10290 3145 10224 3110 10212
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 261DEG 25KT 3121 10267

89

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
821 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     HAIL             2 E THREE LEAGUES       32.50N 101.94W
05/15/2021  E1.75 INCH       Martin             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND DRIVEN GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL BROKE SOUTH FACING
            WINDOWS ON HOME.

&&

DEVIN.CHEHAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
844 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ045-046-050-051-160215-
Martin TX-Dawson TX-Andrews TX-Gaines TX-
844 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ANDREWS...GAINES...NORTHWESTERN
MARTIN AND WESTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 844 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Seagraves to 9 miles south of Andrews. Movement
was east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Andrews, Lamesa, Seminole, Seagraves, Seagraves Airport, Gaines
County Airport, Welch, Loop, Florey, Patricia, Punkin Center,
McKenzie Lake, Paynes Corner, Gaines County Park, Klondike and
Andrews County Airport.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3235 10194 3212 10224 3210 10274 3296 10282
      3296 10193
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 256DEG 35KT 3296 10258 3218 10256

10