Alert archive / Texas / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

May 14, 2021Presidio County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this special weather statement at May 14, 2021, 6:45 PM CDT for Presidio County, Texas. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2021, 6:45 PM CDT (23:45 UTC)
Expired
May 14, 2021, 7:30 PM CDT
In force
45 min
Issued by
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

County Presidio County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 252 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 129 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 146 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
129 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-450 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
954 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
146 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
173 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 14, 6:16 PM CDT, 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 14, 6:16 PM CDT, 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Currently prevailing VFR, but VCTS confined to KCNM with TS slowly
moving east off GDP Mtns. Potential TEMPO at KCNM pending radar
trends next few hrs. Otherwise, precip-free at the rest of
terminals next 18 hrs. Trending a short period of MVFR cigs at
KMAF according to recent guidance, so added a line to cover for
the potential. Gusty SE winds will settle slowly overnight due to
LLJ formation. Sct/Bkn cu field expected between 16-20z across W Tx
and SE NM tomorrow, along with TSRA potential beyond 18z at
KMAF/KFST/KINK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing storms developing in the Davis Mountains.
Instability is marginal with CAPE values of 500-1500J/KG and shear
is also marginal with 0-6KM shear of 30-35KTS, so while there may
be a few isolated severe storms later this afternoon, the risk
shouldn't be too great. Tomorrow an upper level ridge axis
currently to our west will move into the eastern Permian Basin
allowing a weak upper disturbance to move across the CWA. This
will increase instability with CAPE values reaching 2000J/KG,
with shear remaining unchanged. Therefore the severe risk
increases only slightly tomorrow though increased coverage and
closer proximity to populated areas will increase the threat.

The upper ridge moves well east of the area Sunday causing a warm
and dry westerly flow that will end rain chances for a couple of
days and send temperatures back up to near or slightly above
normal. By Tuesday an upper level low will move into New Mexico
and with it a return of rain chances. A dryline will sharpen up
Tuesday and convergence along this boundary should cause storms
to develop. Dryline locations are notoriously difficult to predict
too far in advance but models are in good agreement that the best
rain chances will be east of a line from Seminole to Fort
Stockton. Shear and instability will be enough so that there will
be a potential again for some storms to become severe. There is
some model disagreement next week whether temperatures remain
above normal or cool down slightly. The GFS shows southeast low
level flow over much of the area keeping temps down several
degrees while the ECMWF is giving a drier, westerly flow which
keeps temps several degrees above normal. This forecast stayed
close to the NBM which is on the cooler side.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  84  64  87 /   0  50  50  20
Carlsbad                       60  89  58  92 /  40  30  20   0
Dryden                         66  88  66  92 /  20  40  40  10
Fort Stockton                  63  89  63  94 /  20  60  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 58  84  60  85 /  50  20  10   0
Hobbs                          58  85  59  89 /  20  40  30  10
Marfa                          52  86  52  89 /  50  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           63  85  63  89 /  10  50  50  20
Odessa                         63  85  63  90 /  10  50  40  10
Wink                           63  91  62  95 /  20  50  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

87
Hazardous weather outlook, May 14, 2:09 PM CDT, 4 hours 36 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-151915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
209 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 /109 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms are possible today across the west.
Any storms that do develop may be accompanied by frequent lightning,
small hail, and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Strong to severe storms will be possible across much of the area on
Saturday with the best chances across the northern Permian Basin. The
main threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday across
most of the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 14, 4:30 PM CDT, 2 hours 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
330 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021

NMZ028-142215-
Eddy County Plains NM-
330 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

At 330 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hope, moving north at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10484 3296 10450 3257 10465 3258 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 196DEG 8KT 3279 10475

29
Special weather statement, May 14, 5:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
523 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

TXZ274-277-278-142315-
Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
523 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN REEVES...CENTRAL
JEFF DAVIS AND EAST CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 522 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 10
miles north of McDonald Observatory, or 16 miles north of Fort
Davis, moving east at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kent, McDonald Observatory, Balmorhea State Park, Black Mountain,
Star Mountain, Toyahvale and Buffalo Trail Scout Camp.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 175 and 202.
 Interstate 20 between mile markers 0 and 7.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 10411 3103 10435 3117 10397 3076 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 257DEG 5KT 3082 10399

29
Special weather statement, May 14, 5:30 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
430 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021

NMZ028-142315-
Eddy County Plains NM-
430 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

At 430 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hope. This storm was nearly stationary.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3270 10484 3278 10484 3286 10481 3282 10452
      3253 10465 3264 10485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 300DEG 3KT 3274 10475

29
Special weather statement, May 14, 6:05 PM CDT, 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

TXZ276-277-142345-
Marfa Plateau TX-Davis Mountains TX-
605 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND
NORTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 605 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marfa, moving east at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marfa and Marfa Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 10418 3040 10420 3047 10393 3022 10385
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 261DEG 4KT 3032 10409

29
Local storm report, May 14, 6:39 PM CDT, 6 minutes before
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Special weather statement, May 14, 6:45 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 14, 3:54 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFJeff Davis51 min
May 14, 3:56 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFWard49 min
May 14, 5:23 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFJeff Davis52 min
May 14, 6:05 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFJeff Davis40 min
May 14, 6:46 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFJeff Davis44 min
May 14, 4:30 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFEddy45 min
May 14, 4:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFEddy44 min
May 14, 5:19 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFEddy3 hr
May 14, 5:30 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFEddy45 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Texas, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.