High Wind Watch 25, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

809 
WWUS74 KMAF 010845
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-012115-
/O.UPG.KMAF.HW.A.0025.210502T1200Z-210503T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.HW.W.0028.210502T1500Z-210503T0900Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Guadalupe Mountains NP, 
and Pine Springs
245 AM MDT Sat May 1 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts up to 80 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile
  vehicles. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be 
  hazardous for low flying light aircraft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/maf

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Currently have dry conditions with VFR ceilings everywhere but
KFST where a band of SHRA are currently moving overhead, leading
to short term MVFR before returning to VFR later this afternoon.
VFR cigs will continue until another round of RA develops across
KFST to KMAF beyond 00z. Model discrepancy in positioning and
intensity lead to lower confidence for prevailing conditions, so
opted tempo at KMAF to express time frame when precip would occur.
MVFR to IFR cigs likely towards 12z in TAF cycle for
KHOB/KMAF/KFST with -DZ possible.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over western Chihuahua,
resulting in a rare, rainy night over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  Are radars show an area of deformation over SE NM and the
Permian Basin, where more precipitation has fallen in the past 18
hours than the past 6 months at least, if not longer.  Andrews
mesonet shows a 48 hr precip of 4.47"!  MRMS continues to handle QPE
poorly, although a switch to tropical ZR on the KMAF 88D seems to
have helped some. Rainfall rates have been steady but not
particularly heavy, and thunder has been only isolated, so flood
advisories have handled the scenario nicely.

Rainfall has been slowly tapering off in the aforementioned
deformation zone, w/models shifting better chances to the Big Bend
and Presidio Valley today.  Models are in good agreement in moving
the trough to the Big Bend by 18Z Saturday, then to the Hill
Country by 06Z Sunday. This will shift the focus from the Presidio
Valley/Big Bend to the lower Trans Pecos after 06Z Saturday,
w/convection tapering off to the east through Saturday evening.

W/northerly surface flow, overcast skies, and saturated soils,
models are doing a poor job w/temps, wanting to warm things up too
quickly, as is their wont in scenarios such as this.  For these
reasons, we've kept things on the cools side, as it'll take a few
days of drying out to mitigate the effects of saturated soils.

Of course, that's never too far off, as flow aloft begins
transitioning to zonal Sunday, then to SW Monday as the next trough
digs to the Four Corners by around 12Z Monday.  This generates a
decent mtn wave signature over the Guadalupes Sunday, and we'll
continue mentioning the possibility of high winds in the HWO.  The
secondary trough will pass through the Four Corners Monday, and send
a cold front into the area late Monday night.  Isolated convection
will be possible nrn zones Monday afternoon/evening as the front
approaches.  Temps behind the front will drop below normal tuesday
afternoon, then rebound back to normal Wednesday.  A secondary, dry
front backdoors the area Wednesday night, taking temps back below
normal Thursday. Temps rebound to above-normal by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  67  55  86 /  50  50  20   0
Carlsbad                       50  72  54  87 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                         58  71  57  89 /  60  80  10   0
Fort Stockton                  53  68  57  89 /  50  50  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  65  57  78 /  50  10   0   0
Hobbs                          50  69  52  85 /  30  20   0   0
Marfa                          45  65  47  82 /  70  30   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  67  55  86 /  50  50  10   0
Odessa                         54  67  55  86 /  50  50  10   0
Wink                           53  71  55  89 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

87

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-011830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
130 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 /1230 PM MDT Fri Apr 30 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today and
tonight across portions of the Permian Basin and the Stockton
Plateau. Localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through
Saturday evening for the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Localized flooding is possible.

High winds are possible Sunday in the Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis
Mountains. High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains Sunday morning
and afternoon.

Elevated Fire Weather potential over Southeast New Mexico and far
west Texas on Sunday afternoon and early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland