Heat Advisory 8, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

072 
WWUS74 KMAF 210753
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
253 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

TXZ282-212000-
/O.UPG.KMAF.HT.Y.0008.210621T1700Z-210622T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.EH.W.0003.210621T1700Z-210622T0200Z/
Lower Brewster County-
Including the cities of Big Bend NP, Lajitas, and Castolon
253 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures up to 116 
  expected.

* WHERE...Lower Brewster County along the Rio Grande including Rio
  Grande Village, Castolon, and Lajitas.

* WHEN...From noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat will significantly increase the 
  potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those 
  working or participating in outdoor activities.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

TXZ271-212000-
/O.UPG.KMAF.HW.A.0029.210621T2100Z-210622T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.HW.W.0033.210621T1800Z-210622T0600Z/
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains NP and Pine Springs
153 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains in Texas, mainly
  Guadalupe Pass.

* WHEN...From noon today to midnight MDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile
  vehicles. Consider another route.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

TXZ082-212000-
/O.EXA.KMAF.HT.Y.0008.210621T1700Z-210622T0200Z/
Terrell-
Including the cities of Dryden and Sanderson
253 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Temperatures up to 100 expected.

* WHERE...Terrell County.

* WHEN...From noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures may cause heat illnesses to occur.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

TXZ275>281-212000-
/O.CON.KMAF.HT.Y.0008.210621T1700Z-210622T0200Z/
Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-
Including the cities of Marfa, Fort Davis, Alpine, Big Bend NP, 
Panther Junction, Marathon, Chisos Basin, and Presidio
253 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Temperatures up to 108 expected.

* WHERE...Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains Foothills, Chisos Basin 
  and Presidio Valley, Davis and Chinati Mountains, and Central 
  Brewster County.

* WHEN...From noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures may cause heat illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/maf

051 
WWUS74 KMAF 211926
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

TXZ282-220200-
/O.CON.KMAF.EH.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210622T0200Z/
Lower Brewster County-
Including the cities of Big Bend NP, Lajitas, and Castolon
226 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures up to 116 
  expected.

* WHERE...Lower Brewster County along the Rio Grande including 
  Rio Grande Village, Castolon, and Lajitas.

* WHEN...From noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat will significantly increase the 
  potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those 
  working or participating in outdoor activities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

TXZ271-220600-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-210622T0600Z/
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains NP and Pine Springs
126 PM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains in Texas, mainly 
  Guadalupe Pass.

* WHEN...From noon today to midnight MDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high 
  profile vehicles. Consider another route.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

TXZ082-275>281-220200-
/O.CON.KMAF.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210622T0200Z/
Terrell-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-
Including the cities of Dryden, Sanderson, Marfa, Fort Davis, 
Alpine, Big Bend NP, Panther Junction, Marathon, Chisos Basin, 
and Presidio
226 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Temperatures up to 108 expected.

* WHERE...Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains Foothills, Chisos Basin 
  and Presidio Valley, Davis and Chinati Mountains, and Central 
  Brewster County.

* WHEN...From noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures may cause heat illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/maf

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)

Still hot and getting hotter on this the first day of summer.
Temperatures have already reached the century mark along the Rio
Grande and over the upper Trans Pecos, and the current Heat Advisory
and Excessive Heat Warnings remain valid. Therefore we will continue
these highlights until expiration at 7 pm CDT/6 pm MDT.

High-resolution models continue to indicate scattered convection
coming off the Sacramentos at press time to develop and propagate
east southeastward across portions of southeastern New Mexico and
the northern Permian Basin tonight. Not sure whether this activity
will progress that far east tonight given that MLCAPE will be
limited as the PBL decouples this evening and that the convection
will likely be elevated in nature and thus starved, but at least
isolated storm coverage can be expected this evening over much of
southeastern New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin.
There is a high likelihood that this activity will not be severe;
however, gusty and erratic winds and dry lightning strikes are
possible in and near any thunderstorm this evening. Otherwise expect
lows tonight to be a tad above normal for this time of year given
today's very warm highs and some wind to keep the PBL mixed up a
bit.

Strong (for this time of year) surface anticyclogenesis over the
central Plains states will send a cold front down across west Texas
and southeastern New Mexico during the day Monday. The front should
reach a Carlsbad to Hobbs to Lamesa line by mid morning, reaching
the I-20 corridor shortly before noon, I-10 by mid afternoon, then
finally reaching the Rio Grande by sunset. Behind the front, north
to northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph are
possible, and given the antecedent dry conditions across the South
Plains, localized dirt advection is possible over the northwestern
Permian Basin. Gap winds will be possible through Guadalupe Pass as
the differential pressure gradient sets up and we will maintain the
current High Wind Watch as is, although we expect that high winds
will be limited in time and that wind speeds will be marginal.  And
to add insult to injury, compressional warming ahead of the front
along with maximal insolation will send temperatures well above the
century mark mainly south of I-10 tomorrow afternoon.  We will
therefore introduce a Heat Advisory from the Davis Mountains south
across the Big Bend for Monday afternoon. North of where frontal
passage occurs at time of peak heating, temperatures will be around
10 degrees cooler than today's highs.

Whether there will be sufficient buoyancy and instability for storms
along and behind the front is a good question. Have maintained at
least isolated mention of thunderstorms from the eastern Permian
Basin southwest across the Davis Mountains, Big Bend, and lower
Trans Pecos regions of west Texas, where the latter area is in SPC's
Day2 Marginal risk for severe convection. There should be sufficient
MLCAPE down there and shear is supportive of a multicellular mode,
but there are also questions about whether robust updrafts can
sustain themselves against a stout elevated mixed layer. We have
therefore withheld positive mention of severe until the signals
become clearer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Tuesday will begin w/lows in the L/M 60s making for a very
comfortable morning. MAF could flirt with the record minT of 60F,
however this will be difficult with lingering post frontal moisture
and cloud cover. Nonetheless, we will definitely welcome this
cooler weather! The rest of the day should be mild for late June
standards with skies gradually clearing and highs only reaching
the U80s/L90s in most locations. Winds will slowly veer back
around to the S as the sfc high departs off the E. Isold showers
and t-storms will be possible over the higher terrain Tuesday
afternoon and evening. By Wednesday, the 594 dam high will be
positioned directly over W TX allowing temps to warm back into the
U90s/L100s. NBM may be underestimating sfc temps by a degree or
two, but will not deviate too much from the blends from Day 4
onwards. Isold convection will again be possible across far
western portions of the CWA on Wednesday afternoon. Similar
conditions will exist Thursday and Friday as the axis of the upper
level ridge remains centered over the region. Long range models
are suggesting a weakening of the ridge by next weekend. Broad
upper lvl troffing over the N plains will keep our region under NW
flow aloft which would help usher in cooler air and better
precipitation chances from Saturday through the following Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  91  61  87 /  10  30  20   0
Carlsbad                       73  95  64  93 /  20  10  10   0
Dryden                         75 101  69  90 /   0  20  30  10
Fort Stockton                  78 101  64  89 /   0  20  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 74  91  61  88 /  20  10  10   0
Hobbs                          71  91  61  89 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                          67  98  55  90 /  10  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  94  63  88 /  10  20  20   0
Odessa                         76  92  64  88 /  10  20  20   0
Wink                           76 100  65  92 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Crane-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Presidio Valley.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening
     for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

70/24/70

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
248 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-212000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
248 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 /148 PM MDT Sun Jun 20 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Critically hot temperatures are anticipated across much of west
Texas and southeastern New Mexico through the afternoon. An
Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for elevations between 5000 and
6500 feet across the Guadalupe, Delaware, Davis, and Chinati
Mountains and surrounding foothills for this afternoon, while a Heat
Advisory is in effect for southeastern New Mexico as well as the
western and central Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and Big Bend
areas of west Texas.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast for late this afternoon and this
evening for much of southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern
Permian Basin of west Texas. Gusty and erratic winds and occasional
lightning strikes, some dry, can be expected in and near any
thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Critically hot temperatures are anticipated across parts of the
lower Trans Pecos west across the Davis Mountains and Big Bend
regions of west Texas. A heat advisory is in effect for these areas
beginning at noon Monday and continuing through 9 pm Monday evening.

Localized high winds are forecast through Guadalupe Pass on Monday
afternoon into the early evening. A High Wind Watch remains in effect
for this area.

Lastly, a few strong storms are possible across parts of the
southeastern Permian basin and lower Trans Pecos regions of west
Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Small hail, gusty and erratic
winds,and dangerous lightning, some dry, will occur in and near any
thunderstorm.

No other hazardous weather is expected through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland