Fire Weather Watch 2, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

431 
WWUS84 KMAF 092008
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
208 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20 FOOT WINDS
OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY...

.Above normal temperatures will combine with dry and windy
conditions to produce critical fire weather across the Guadalupe
and Delaware Mountains and surrounding plains in Culberson County
this afternoon.

NMZ116-TXZ270-271-273-100100-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FW.A.0002.210210T1800Z-210211T0100Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210210T0100Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Eastern Culberson County-
208 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 /108 PM MST Tue Feb 9 2021/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20 FOOT WINDS
OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has cancelled the
Fire Weather Watch.

* AFFECTED AREA...Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains, 
  Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet, Guadalupe and Delaware 
  Mountains and Eastern Culberson County.

* TIMING...Afternoon through early this evening 

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 8 percent.

* RFTI...4 or near critical to critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions will have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1017 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Latest NAM run has gotten a little more aggressive in bringing a
cold front into the NE overnight, complete w/IFR cigs to boot.
This is markedly different than previous runs, but the HRRR is
hinting at this as well, and OBs to the NE of KMAF suggest models
are playing catch-up. We'll bring in some stratus and a little BR
to KMAF around 12Z, but keep things MVFR for now. Near the end of
the forecast period, IFR cigs look more likely as a warm front
surges in. Elsewhere, VFR conditions and modest return flow is
anticipated.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021/

DISCUSSION...
The leading edge of the cold airmass has made it as far w as near
Gail-Westbrook with temperatures to the n front in the 50s this PM.
W of the front temps are in the 60s and 70s. Overnight cold air will
make an attempt to edge farther w and by 15Z Tue temps along the I-
20 corridor will be about 10 degrees cooler than 15Z this AM.
Pressure falls suggest that cold air will back out of Andrews-Gaines-
Midland counties during the afternoon setting up very warm and dry
conditions across much of the area. Meanwhile shallow low-level mstr
will make a return Wed AM with low clouds/fog just w of the front,
but behind the front in Scurry-Borden-Mitchell-Howard low clouds -DZ
FG are expected too and it could -FZDZ/FZFG? The cold air will then
start to make a stronger push Wed evening and by 12Z Thur it will
likely be just w of the Pecos River. The most favorable area for
FZDZ/FZFG or even -FZRA/-S will again be the ne 4 counties, but it
could be farther w especially if it is really there in the ne Wed
AM? High temps are likely to be much colder across the remainder of
the PB U30s-N50. Temp gradient will be tight and as such large temp
changes over short distances making the forecast a challenge.
Meanwhile a strong surface anticyclone ~ 1065MB INVOF of the Yukon
territory will continue to feed the frigid air se into the CONUS as
the 5h height pattern (mimicking the McFarland signature) exhibits a
loaded/ing anti-cyclonic fujiwara circulation. The e-w orientation
of the 5h trof in srn Canada is somewhat slow to pivot around and
thus an explanation as to why the frigid air is somewhat slow or
timid to arrive in MAF's area. However on Fri and certainly by Fri
evening it will Bogart its way in and not wanting to leave until
Tue. Recent model runs have been trending colder, even much colder!
The coldest temp observed at Midland Intl since 2011 is 5 degrees in
Feb 2011 and according to the latest probabilistic data there is a
21% probability that the Sun AM low temp could be 5 degrees and a
52% probability of a low of 13 degrees. Of course these numbers can
and will change over the next several days and some subtle
difference in models may have big impact. However the frigid air is
really up there in Canada (-53F this morning in the Yukon). With the
pattern described above there is enough evidence to recommend
beginning preparations for an extended cold spell. CIPS analog data
scores some past record cold days in 2011, even 1985, but these
analogs are compared to the GFS (coldest of the model data we have
seen) so there is a bit a cold bias. In addition there are
indications a shrtwv trof/s Sat-Mon that may generate light wintry
precip.

FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty westerly winds continue across the Guadalupe's and adjacent
plains with PM obs showing RH's between 5-10% for areas west of
the Pecos River. The ambient dry conditions with the elevated flow
has placed critical RFTI's on the order of 5-6 out in the Mtns
with adjacent plains elevated between 3-4. ERC cycle shows a dry
signature with percentiles ~50-60% in the mountains with plains
~70th percentile thanks to the significant fuel drying last few
weeks. The mountains do continue to carry a bit of moisture from
more precip compared to neighboring plains, so the probability of
significant fire is right on the borderline for RFW conditions.
However, considering the elevated winds >30kts already present for
GDP and bordering obs, the RFW is sufficient to cover for higher
than normal initial attack conditions. A similar setup is forecast
for the next few days as well, so a Fire Weather Watch will also
be issued for tomorrow, and perhaps Wednesday if guidance
continues to show a persistent signature of elevated westerlies,
critical RH's, and ERC's hovering between 50-70%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  70  43  61 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       39  77  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         46  80  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  47  82  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  69  46  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          38  75  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          31  76  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           40  77  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         41  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  80  40  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

44/24/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
309 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-100915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
309 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 /209 AM MST Tue Feb 9 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon
across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible in the
Guadalupe Mountains again Wednesday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect.

Very cold temperatures are likely Friday through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland