Dust Storm Advisory 4, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
255 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar and observations are showing a quasi-stationary
dryline from Monahans to the Gaines/Dawson County line. Winds are
holding from the south which is keeping dewpoints higher than
models were originally suggesting. This could be a significant
development as more low level moisture would make it easier to
break the cap currently suppressing convection and allowing for
more storms to develop...and earlier. It appears currently that
strong shear is limiting deep convection over the MAF CWA but
instability continues increasing with high temperatures still a
couple of hours away. Large hail and strong winds will be the
primary threats with a very low chance for an isolated tornado.
The deep upper low pulling the moisture into the Permian Basin is
only slowly moving east so the severe weather threat will continue
across the area through early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday we will be in the dry slot of the upper low keeping rain
chances mostly to our east and north. Models begin to diverge on
the movement of the low with GFS being more progressive and other
medium range models cutting off the low for a couple of days
before finally moving it to the east on Sunday. The low will bring
a cold front on Thursday and how much precipitation is associated
with it will depend greatly on the position of the low. Have kept
low chance PoPs in the forecast through Thursday given the model
uncertainty but this may need to be extended farther out should
the slower track prove correct. Temperatures drop below normal
Thursday and Friday behind the cold front before a warming trend
takes hold for the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures today are expected to be around 10 degrees above
normal. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to be 15
percent or less along and west of a line from the central Permian
Basin to the Lower Trans Pecos to the Big Bend area. Some
locations may experience single digit RH values. High winds are
expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains with winds near
or above 20 mph across much of the area. RFTI values are expected
to be between 3 and 8 across the western half of the area. ERC
values will generally be in the 70th to 89th percentile and 90th
to 96th percentile. These conditions have resulted in critical
fire weather generally along and west of a line from the western
Permian Basin...to Stockton Plateau...to the Presidio Valley for
today. There may be sudden shifts in wind direction this afternoon
and evening due to outflow boundaries from possible storms across
the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. There will be a slight
improvement in RH values for Wednesday but still expecting
widespread 10 to 15 percent RH across the area. Winds will
decrease slightly across the area for Wednesday but expect 20+ mph
winds from the Davis Mountains northward to Eddy County. This
will result in RFTI values of 3 to 5 in the above mentioned areas
and may lead to near critical to critical fire weather. Both RH
and wind improve on Thursday with below normal temperatures. The
only fire weather concerns on Thursday may be in the Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains where winds are expected to be 20+ mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  82  54  71 /  50  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       51  73  47  70 /   0  10  10  30
Dryden                         66  89  60  80 /  20   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  58  81  53  72 /  20   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 49  65  45  64 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                          51  74  46  67 /  10  10  10  30
Marfa                          46  72  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           58  81  53  72 /  40   0  10  20
Odessa                         58  79  52  72 /  40   0  10  20
Wink                           53  80  50  72 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

80/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
344 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-282045-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
344 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021 /244 PM MDT Tue Apr 27 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight mainly over the
Western Low Rolling Plains and Permian Basin.  Any storms that do
develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small hail, gusty
winds, and brief, heavy rainfall.  There is a slight risk of severe
storms, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and an
isolated tornado.

A Red Flag warning is in effect through early evening for Southeast
new Mexico and much of West Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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