Dust Storm Advisory 2, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Elevated and gusty northwest winds will become northerly to
northeasterly this evening with blowing dust expected to impact
HOB and MAF this evening. Winds will be easterly Saturday morning
then southerly during the afternoon. Outside of visibility
restrictions due to blowing dust, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021/

DISCUSSION...
A pacific cold front has moved through the area bringing
northwesterly winds and very dry air. Surface low pressure over
northwestern Texas will move east allowing northerly winds on its
western periphery to advect colder air into West Texas tonight.
Saturday will see temperatures close to normal, then surface high
pressure will move into East Texas causing a return flow that
will increase temps back about 10 degrees above normal on Sunday.

Next week will be characterized by a broad area of low pressure
over the northern U.S. with zonal westerly flow over the southern
states. The low pressure to our north will send another cold front
through the South Plains on Monday and a stagnant upper level
pattern will keep northeasterly or easterly winds in our CWA
through the end of the week preventing any kind of warming to
occur. Intermittent upper level disturbances will move across
New Mexico and Texas enhancing lift and keeping chance for
precipitation in the forecast. PoPs are broadly scattered and low
throughout the entirety of next week due to uncertainties in the
timing of these disturbances but hopefully in time we will be able
to get a better handle on their timing and be more specific on
exactly when and how much precipitation there will be. We are also
gaining confidence that next week will be near to below normal in
temperatures thanks not only to cold air advection, but an
abundance of cloud cover and precipitation. In fact, predominant
east winds will not be advecting in much cool air so most of the
cooling will likely be due to the amount of cloud cover in place
that day so high temps may be bouncing around a bit next week.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty NW across all of SE NM and West TX will coupled with very
low RHs have exacerbated an already critically dry fuel level
across the region, prompting a continued fire threat areawide. RHs
presently are running between 5-11% everywhere with hi-res
guidance indicating a further drop in RHs this afternoon as
downsloping flow and dry air intrusion under the base of a
progressive disturbance in-of the southern plains will continue to
mix out any available moisture within the lower boundary layer.
Fuel loading may be the only saving grace for the entire region as
fuel moisture have crept down to the 1-2% range thanks to the
limited recoveries overnight and antecedent dry weather that has
plagued the region for the last several months. RFTI indices
approaching up to 8 (Extreme) in the mountains (Both GDP and Davis
Mtn/Foothill corridor) have brought the heightened concerns for
not only basic IA fire generation, but large fire concerns,
especially within any growth in the grasslands at higher
elevations since they were one of the few areas with any
appreciable precip the past several weeks. Adjacent plains and
valleys are running between 4-6 (Critical) on the RFTI with ERC's
generally in the 80-90th percentile with some spots of 90-96th
percentile in the Permian Basin, so long hanging fruit for RFW
issuance. One fire currently in the forecast zone with the South
Rim Fire in the Chisos still burning, likely being fed by the
ambient fire conditions present. Cold front tonight will glide
through the region, leading to a quick veering of the flow out of
the NE, so any fires present will be subject to hard flips in
direction, so definitely a cause for concern everywhere.

Aforementioned cold front will lead to at least a reprieve in RHs
for Saturday with near critical RHs confined to the Guadalupe
Mtns during the afternoon. NE flow will veer clockwise by the
afternoon with 20ft winds generally holding <15kts with ~20kts
possible in the mountains. Considering the lower wind field and
RHs near and slightly above 15%, opting to withhold a Fire Weather
Watch for now, but pending trends in obs and future guidance,
another Red Flag Warning is possible, but leaning RFD for now.
Sunday is another day of drier westerly flow with stronger
westerly flow out in the farthest west portions of the region. GDP
and the adjacent high plains of Culberson and Eddy will be
subject to greatest Fire Wx risk, so don't be surprised to see
another Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag setup for Sunday afternoon and
evening time frame. Conditions improve late Sunday night through
next week due to a succession of fronts, RH above critical
thresholds, and rain chances returning. Main concerns will be IA
potential due to dry lightning, so not completely out of the
woods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  76  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  77  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  82  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  49  80  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  75  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  74  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          44  81  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  77  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  78  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           47  79  49  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Chavez Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

99/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
145 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-101845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
145 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 /1245 PM MDT Fri Apr 9 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread critical fire weather conditions with extreme fire danger
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon into this
evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Fire weather concerns will continue through the weekend as dry
conditions continue. Near critical to critical conditions will be
possible across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains both Saturday
and Sunday. Elevated to near critical fire weather will be possible
in far West Texas and the Southeast New Mexico plains on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland