Areal Flood Advisory 48, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
632 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have ongoing storms along the Pecos River moving into the Permian
Basin with additional storms moving down from Ern NM. Carrying
TSRA at INK... PEQ... and MAF. More storms expected overnight...
could see local MVFR cigs and vsbys with storms.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021/

DISCUSSION...

KMAF 18Z RAOB shows a cap still in place, but considerably less than
the 12Z run.  For some reason, the raob came in w/a sfc Td of 24C,
yielding mucapes of over 7000 J/kg!  After editing the sounding for
a sfc Td of 19C, mucapes dropped to 3400 J/kg, which is still
potent.  Mid-lvl lapse rates of near 9C/km and a wet-bulb zero of
8600' call for very large hail, and dcapes of 1300 J/kg suggest
damaging winds as well.  Deep-lyr shear of 40 kts will help maintain
supercells, as will a 35+kt LLJ this evening.  Radar already shows
the first cell going up nrn Brewster County, and this is in line
w/the latest HRRR run, which develops additional convection Permian
Basin late this afternoon, then SE NM this evening on a possible MCS
moving SE out of NM.

Saturday looks to be a little less active, w/the primary focus being
orographic lifting on easterly flow to the higher terrain out west
near the dryline.  By Sunday afternoon, the west coast trough will
be over Baja del Norte, sending a strong shortwave into West texas
and Southeast New Mexico, w/Sunday night looking to be best chances
for rain this forecast, w/a continued severe threat.  Monday night
looks wet/severe as well, as another shortwave calves off the
trough.

Chances drop off after Monday, but the trough remains parked over
Baja, and moisture isn't going anywhere, so a chance of convection
remains in play each day.  It goes w/out saying that temps will
remain below normal in this pattern, given expected convection/cloud
cover each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  81  67  79 /  50  30  20  30
Carlsbad                       64  87  67  85 /  20  20  30  50
Dryden                         67  87  70  84 /  40  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  64  87  68  84 /  30  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 60  85  62  82 /  10  30  40  40
Hobbs                          61  82  65  79 /  40  20  30  50
Marfa                          58  89  62  84 /  10  30  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           63  82  67  80 /  50  20  20  40
Odessa                         63  84  67  81 /  50  20  20  40
Wink                           65  88  68  86 /  40  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-291900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
159 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 /1259 PM MDT Fri May 28 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe storms, capable of producing
large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Heavy rain
may also result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms through Monday.  Any severe
storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail, damaging
winds, and an isolated tornado.  Heavy rain may also result in flash
flooding Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1057 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             ANDREWS                 32.32N 102.55W
05/28/2021  E1.00 INCH       ANDREWS            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MSCHULDT