Areal Flood Advisory 41, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
141 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Veered, albeit weak, 7h winds suggest the dryline will evetually
move to near a Lamesa to Odessa to near Alpine line with a mstr
rich and unstable condition e of the dryline with ML CAPEs
2500-3000 J/KG. Storm initiation has occurred in far e Jeff Davis
Co and n Brewster, very close to HRRR forecast. These storms are
forecast to move e and increase across Pecos Co where severe
storms could develop between 20Z-21Z. Surface dewpoints are high
at Sheffield early this afternoon 68. Between 00Z-03Z/Wed a second
area of storms may develop across the cntrl and ern PB. Deep
layer shear in general is 20-25kts, but instability is likely to
make up for it and severe storms will certainly be possible. Wed
7h winds back to the s and dryline will remain much farther w
where some of the hottest surface temps will be, mid to upper 90s
SE NM- Upper Trans Pecos-wrn PB. A few strong storms will develop
in those areas, but coverage will be limited with SB CINH stronger
farther e. Deep layer shear will increase to 30-35kts on Thu as
sw flow at 7h signals dryline will mix/move farther e. SB
instability axis is likely to be focused along a narrow corridor
from near Lamesa- Midland/Odessa-Crane- Bakersfield. Sustained
se-s low-level flow will increase convergence along dryline.
Initial development is certainly possible, if not favored, along
and just n of a dryline bulge between Penwell and Saragosa. Using
30 degrees right of 7h wind for storm motion would bring
strong/severe storms into the Midland/Odessa area early evening.
However, storms could be strong right mover (following mstr axis)
bringing higher end severe threat into srn PB and e Pecos Co..
Still coverage is minimized, however potential intensity of storms
could make up for it? Another interesting day Fri with
outflow/cold front e-w along I-20, dryline extending s from cntrl
PB with model indications of a thermal low or mesolow across wrn
PB. Boundaries will be good focus for tstm development, but where
the boundaries will actually be is difficult to say, so for now
suffice it to say slight chance to chance storms possible Fri
afternoon-evening. There may be a few storms Sat, but the better
potential will start Sun across the wrn areas and then expand e
Mon ownward as a slow moving mid-level trof moves into the Desert
SW. Sunday through mid week or so could be an active period with
all severe wx threats possible, including flooding. Over the next
few days temps will remain above normal by a few degrees, but by
next week with mid- level trof to w and increased rain high temps
are likely to cool back closer to normal or below.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  91  70  92 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       63  96  65  97 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         71  94  71  96 /  30   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  69  96  70  98 /  20  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 66  90  65  91 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          64  93  66  94 /   0  20  20  10
Marfa                          57  92  58  95 /  10  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           68  93  70  94 /  20  10  10  20
Odessa                         69  93  70  94 /  20  10  20  20
Wink                           68  98  70  99 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
433 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-262145-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
433 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021 /333 PM MDT Tue May 25 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the eastern Permian
Basin until 11 PM CDT this evening.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Stockton
Plateau. Large to very large hail, damaging wind, and heavy rain are
possible with the strongest storms. An isolated tornado may also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible each day, especially
across the eastern half of the area. By Sunday and Monday, much of
the region could see strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and
large hail will remain the primary concerns through the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening across
the Permian Basin southward to the Stockton Plateau.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ENE ODESSA            31.88N 102.29W
05/25/2021  E60 MPH          Ector              TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DEVIN.CHEHAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             1 SW LUTHER             32.44N 101.47W
05/25/2021  E1.50 INCH       Howard             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DAVID.HENNIG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
639 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

TXZ279-282-260030-
Central Brewster County TX-Lower Brewster County TX-
639 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM CDT...

At 638 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Persimmon Gap, or 33 miles north of Panther Junction,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Persimmon Gap and Santiago Peak.

LAT...LON 2970 10336 3004 10324 2973 10268 2970 10270
      2968 10269 2963 10274 2960 10274 2960 10277
      2955 10277 2952 10281 2949 10280 2945 10283
      2941 10283 2940 10281 2936 10285 2935 10288
      2931 10289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 322DEG 18KT 2981 10322

10

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