Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1121 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

.AVIATION...
The cold front has entered extreme northwest Arkansas and will be
moving southeast overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of the front. Some of the storms could become
strong or severe. Winds will be gusty and will go from south to
north behind the front. Clouds will decrease during the morning in
most places Monday. MVFR and IFR conditions will eventually become
VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 549 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021)
AVIATION...
The cold front in Missouri and Oklahoma will move into northwest
Arkansas this evening. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front in the warm sector
this evening. Later tonight a line of thunderstorms will develop
along the front and move east. Gusty winds are expected. Winds
will turn to the north behind the front. Clearing is expected on
Monday. Mainly MVFR to IFR conditions are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 315 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Today: The warm front continues to traverse northward through the
Natural State and into Missouri. Overall, visibilities continue to
improve across the entire CWA as dew point depressions increase. As
of the 18Z observations, dew point temperatures have increased
across the region to a range of 60-65 degrees along and south of the
Interstate 40 corridor across Arkansas. A strong region of
moistening and warming is taking place at the surface.

Tonight: A cold front oriented northeast to southwest across
Illinois, Iowa, northern Missouri, Kansas, and central Oklahoma is
on approach to the CWA. As of 18Z, latest CAMS guidance implies
ahead of the cold front an environment with ample moisture and 0-3
km bulk shear values ranging from 30-50 knots across the entire CWA.
This primed environment is conducive for strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop into a linear (QLCS) storm mode.

Tonight's Storm Timing: A line of storms is expected to enter the
CWA in the northwest between 10-11 PM CST late Sunday... enter the
central portion of Arkansas along the I-40 corridor (including the
Little Rock metro area) between 1-3 AM CST early Monday... enter the
southern portion of the CWA between 3-6 AM CST early Monday.

Tonight's Storm Impacts: The line of storms has the potential to
produce both strong and severe cells along the extent of the line.
The main impact and highest risk with this system will be the
potential for damaging winds in excess of 60+ mph... Secondary
threats will have a lower probability of occurring, but a zero chance
does not exist for small hail up to the size of quarters and an
isolated tornado. It is to be noted that tornadoes in lines of
storms tend to be weaker and short-lived; however, this is not
always the case. Equally noted, tornadoes within lines of storms
spin-up quickly and provide a challenge providing warning lead
time.... It is imperative that you heed and take the necessary
preparations for both severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings that
can both cause risk to life and property.

Monday: FROPA will be completed trekking across the state by noon,
thus ending the chances for rain/storms across the CWA. Behind the
cold front will be a much colder and drier airmass. Temperatures
will drop throughout the day on Monday. As a result, Monday's high
temperature will likely occur just after midnight (early Monday
morning) ahead of the incoming cold front with middle to upper 40's
across northern Arkansas, low to middle 50's across central
Arkansas, and middle to upper 50's across southern Arkansas.
Monday's low temperature is likely to come after FROPA and just
before Tuesday (late Monday evening) with low temperatures in the
middle 30's to lower 40's across northern Arkansas, middle to upper
40's across central Arkansas, and lower to middle 50's across
southern Arkansas.

Tuesday: A much different airmass moves into the Natural State with
gradual clearing skies Monday overnight into early morning Tuesday.
Tuesday morning low temperatures begin frigid compared to what we
have experienced recently across Arkansas... lows Tuesday morning
will be in the middle to upper 20's across northern Arkansas and
higher elevations of the Natural State, central Arkansas along the I-
40 corridor can expect low temperatures in the upper 20's to lower
30's, and southern Arkansas will see low temperatures that plummet
into the lower to middle 30's. During the day Tuesday, partly cloudy
skies with some occasional sunshine is to be anticipated. High
temperatures will be noticeably colder than what we have been
experiencing over the last several days... Tuesday high temperatures
will be in the lower to mid 40's across northern Arkansas, middle to
upper 40's across central Arkansas, and upper 40's to lower 50's in
southern Arkansas.

Pope

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Saturday

A dry airmass will remain in place across Arkansas Tuesday night
under mostly clear skies with light winds as surface high pressure
begins to slide off to the east. Temperatures Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning will likely fall near to below freezing
across much of the state, save southern Arkansas where lows may
hover in the mid 30s.

By Wednesday into Wednesday night, an upper level trough is expected
to slide south along the California Pacific coast, become cut off,
resulting in a split flow regime aloft over the Rocky Mountains. The
polar jet will set up in a west-northwest flow regime aloft while
the subtropical jet ramps up from the Baja peninsula to the
northeast over Texas, then spreading east over the southeastern
CONUS. This will result in lee-side cyclogenesis near the
Kansas/Nebraska border just east of Colorado. Between the surface
cyclogenesis and the subtropical moisture flowing in aloft, moisture
will begin to quickly return across Arkansas, keeping overnight
temperatures a bit warmer Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Positive moisture advection will continue throughout the day on
Thursday in conjunction with low-level warm air advection/isentropic
lift. This may result in some isolated rain showers across the state
by Thursday night as the polar and subtropical jet merge as the cut-
off low becomes absorbed into a larger upper trough over the western
CONUS. A shortwave trough moving northeast within the consolidated
upper trough out west will cause isolated showers and thunderstorms
to remain a possibility throughout the day on Friday and into Friday
night.

Aside from the shortwave trough moving northeast on Friday, strong
warm air advection will result in temperatures in the mid 70s across
much of Arkansas, possibly pushing some record high temperatures.

The consolidated upper trough is expected to move southeast over
Arkansas Friday night through Saturday, sending a strong cold front
across the state. The combination of deeper moisture in place ahead
of the upper trough providing strong differential positive vorticity
advection will lead to very strong forcing for ascent along the
front. At this time the GFS and ECMWF show the upper trough moving
over the state positively tilted which should limit the severe
weather threat to some degree as differential temperature advection
will be limited resulting in meager mid-level lapse rates as the
line of thunderstorms move across the state. Some severe weather
will be possible, but the strong large scale forcing for ascent will
likely result in a linear storm mode with damaging winds posing the
primary threat.

If the upper trough moves over the state neutrally or negatively
tilted then the severe weather threat would be enhanced by steeper
lapse rates aloft, allowing for the potential for some discrete
segments, stronger updrafts, leading to an elevated hail and tornado
threat. As the models are right now, precipitation chances will be
100 percent whenever the front moves through, and we'll have to
watch for the orientation of the trough aloft to determine the
extent of any severe weather threat next weekend.

By Sunday, a significantly drier airmass will build across the state
as high pressure settles into place. Light winds, dry air, and clear
skies will cause Sunday morning temperatures to fall into the 30s
again, with temperatures possibly falling below freezing across the
northwestern portion of the state. Sunday will remain dry and sunny
with highs climbing into the mid to upper 50s.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1205 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
1205 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. Through
mid-day, the threat of strong storms will be low. Additional, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of
a strong cold front moving into Arkansas this evening and into the
overnight hours.

A few strong to severe storms are possible. Through late evening,
the greatest potential for strong storms will be over the
northwest half of the state. After midnight, this will shift into
central Arkansas, and then southeast before sunrise.

Any strong storms will be capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts. There will also be the possibility of a
brief, weak tornado or two. Localized heavy rainfall is also a
concern with any stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
The threat of severe weather will shift southeast of Arkansas on
Monday morning.

Drier and cooler weather will move into the region Monday into
Tuesday...but some chances for thunderstorms return to the
forecast for portions of the state for the middle of the week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be required by this evening and through
the overnight hours.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

57/233/56

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1100 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

ARZ003-060545-
Boone AR-
1100 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Boone
County through 1145 PM CST...

At 1100 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roberson Hollow, or 13 miles east of Berryville, moving northeast at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Diamond City...                   Omaha...
Roberson Hollow...                Self...
Alpena...                         Crumpler Subdivision...
New Hope in Boone County...       Burlington...
Ridgeway...                       Bull Shoals Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for
north central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9286 3647 9286 3649 9288 3647 9289
      3626 9330 3650 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 242DEG 41KT 3643 9334

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1139 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

ARZ003>005-012-013-060630-
Baxter AR-Marion AR-Searcy AR-Newton AR-Boone AR-
1139 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Searcy,
northern Newton, Marion, Boone and northern Baxter Counties through
1230 AM CST...

At 1139 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lead Hill to Red Bank to near Aurora.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison...                       Mountain Home...
Bull Shoals...                    Yellville...
Jasper...                         Gassville...
Flippin...                        Lakeview in Baxter County...
Diamond City...                   Salesville...
Bergman...                        Western Grove...
Lead Hill...                      Briarcliff...
Pyatt...                          Valley Springs...
Arkawana...                       Dugger...
Olvey...                          Erbie...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for
north central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 9223 3606 9250 3590 9293 3593 9349
      3600 9345 3608 9345 3608 9348 3611 9348
      3613 9345 3612 9330 3626 9329 3650 9282
      3650 9221
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 280DEG 41KT 3644 9281 3617 9326 3601 9362

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1213 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

ARZ004-012-013-021-022-060700-
Pope AR-Marion AR-Searcy AR-Johnson AR-Newton AR-
1213 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Johnson,
Searcy, southern Newton, southeastern Marion and northern Pope
Counties through 100 AM CST...

At 1213 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Piercetown to near Walnut to 6 miles west
of Devils Knob to near Cass. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall...                       Marsena...
Witts Spring...                   Duff...
Moore...                          Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area...
Point Peter...                    Maumee...
Devils Knob...                    Bohannon...
Imo...                            Elberta...
Watts...                          Rosetta...
Kay...                            Dillen...
Smyrna...                         Eula...
Walnut...                         Bertha...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for
western, central and north central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9241 3615 9243 3579 9243 3579 9263
      3573 9263 3572 9281 3564 9281 3559 9324
      3557 9369 3577 9369 3576 9352 3588 9353
      3588 9350 3592 9351 3594 9348 3591 9296
      3617 9243
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 260DEG 40KT 3594 9314 3579 9331 3570 9352 3563
9385

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

44