Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

The cold front has moved south across most of the state...though
has slowed over SRN AR late this Sun evening. Additional
convection is ongoing across SWRN/SRN sections of the
state...along with some isolated SHRA west of Little Rock towards
FSM. Will continue to see at least some potential through Mon
afternoon of isolated/scattered convection at central/SRN
terminals. NRN terminals should remain dry...though some
restricted VIS will be possible due to fog and haze.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 256 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday

Sunday Afternoon/Evening... The frontal boundary continues its
progression into the far southern expanse of Arkansas with a
horizontal orientation (east/west). Behind the frontal boundary
temperatures have only made it into the 70's and 80's, a nice relief
for most of the Natural State. Ahead of the front (as of 19Z) the
boundary remains between the highway 278 corridor in far southern
Arkansas and the Louisiana/Missouri temperatures have managed to
sneak into the upper 80's and lower 90's. Precipitation wise has
been most active behind the front as isentropic ascent has prompted
showers and some scattered thunderstorms and the trajectory of
those showers and thunderstorms to the ENE given the position of
the 500mb trough orientation from SW to NE.

Sunday Night/Monday... The frontal boundary will continue its slow
progression southward into Louisiana by Monday ushering in cooler
low temperatures, especially to begin Monday morning along and north
of the I-40 corridor where low 70's and upper 60's will be common.
Precipitation chances will diminish from north to south across the
state with time and usher in drier and fair weather for Monday with
temperatures rebounding into the 80's for high temperatures and less
atrocious dewpoint temperatures that will be in the 60's with a few
low 70's across the state.

Monday Night... Tranquil, precipitation-free conditions continue
with clearing skies and cool temperatures that will be in the upper
60's across central portions of the state. Upper 60's across
southern regions and likewise lower 60's across the northern portion
of the state.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Tuesday

Long term PD remains cool and dry w/ below normal temps through the
early portion of the term...and condns returning to normal, late
summer unpleasantly by the end of the PD. Beginning Wed, a
perturbed H500 flow pattern wl be prevalent over the CONUS, w/
strong ridging having retrograded and deep troughing digging into
the S/Ern US. As such, a fetch of nominal N/Wrly flow wl be in
place across the Ozarks, w/ the upstream quarter of the trough
positioned over the FA and driving synoptic forcing for descent.
By Fri of the coming week, N/Erly sfc winds wl transition back to
S/Erly winds as Upper Great Lakes high pressure translates E/wrd
and H500 flow  with Ern troughing filling in. Highs in the low to
mid 90s wl resume w/ Td's creeping back into the 70s and
contributing more sweltering heat for the FA.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
752 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
752 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Aside from isolated to scattered storms over southern Arkansas
tonight, the threat for hazardous weather is low. Storms may
produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

Some thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through Monday
afternoon...mainly across the southern half of the state. For now
though...the threat for severe weather looks to remain low.

While below normal condtions are expected from Monday through the
middle of the week...expect temperatures to warm back into the 90s
by late this week into the upcoming weekend. Heat index values may
warm back to around 100 degrees by this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

DTC/234/232

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

ARZ066-020445-
Ouachita AR-
1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OUACHITA COUNTY
UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stephens, or 8 miles northeast of McNeil. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stephens...                       Louann...
Buena Vista...                    Troy...
Kirkland...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 9312 3363 9311 3338 9277 3337 9287
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 245DEG 3KT 3344 9312

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1236 AM CDT Mon Aug 2 2021

ARZ053-066-020600-
Clark AR-Ouachita AR-
1236 AM CDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CLARK AND
NORTHWESTERN OUACHITA COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1236 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
White Oak Lake State Park, or 15 miles northwest of Camden, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Camden...                         Gurdon...
Chidester...                      Whelen Springs...
White Oak Lake State Park...      Poison Springs State Park...
Bragg City...                     Reader...
Harmony Grove...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 9310 3379 9313 3382 9314 3381 9317
      3392 9314 3366 9276 3351 9311
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 227DEG 8KT 3369 9306

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